Energy Markets Under Pressure: Supply Bottlenecks and Rising Costs
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba Receives Russian Supply – Why Did Trump Allow It? 🌳Australia’s LNG Sector: A Lesson to Be Learned 🌳Deep Sea Mining: We’ll Believe It When We See It 🌳Airline Woes: It’s More Than Just Jet Fuel Daily Energy Report https://t.co/GJcTPG5DRA
Data Shows Downside Risk Despite Bottom‑Seeking Optimism
$SPY - With data - you find what you look for...many are looking for "the bottom is close" and "this is capitulation" so they are finding it (SHOCKING). But PLENTY of data is saying we have plenty of room to...
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Rising Rates Erase Affordability Gains, Prices May Dip
Mortgage rates hit the upper 6s this week - up 65 bps in a month. The affordability gains of early 2026 are gone. Here's what the data shows: ➡️85,000 pending sales this week, down for the week. Still 1.5% above last...
Oil Slumps,
Sure, it looks bad in Oil.. But we are pretty far from 2021/2022 in Nat Gas, food, electricity etc.. Still a world apart..
Middle East Jet Fuel Gap Nears Critical Threshold
Our coverage from last week on this approaching milestone for global aviation: The Middle East jet fuel air gap is about to reach the tap https://t.co/2s6NEPkGYA (via @theaircurrent)
Renewable Growth Drives Lower Electricity Prices, Not Higher
Just another reminder that, like worldwide, increases in WindWaterSolar in the U.S. correlate with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Please ignore all the spam claims that renewables increase prices. It is fossil fuels and nuclear that increase electricity prices. https://t.co/Lra772hw38
Tech Valuations Bottom, GPU Prices Surge, Growth Opportunities
Risk/reward seems attractive: Token consumption accelerating, GPU per hour rental prices going vertical and Tech valuations are broadly below their Covid and Deepseek lows. Some high quality secular growth names are at mid single digit multiples on real 27/28 numbers.
Not Every Bottom Fits the Trendy V Shape
I’m old enough to remember not every bottom being a “V” bottom. This just doesn’t smell like a “tweet and rip” bottom. *would love to be wrong*
Dow Reaches 2024 High, Puts Boomers to Test
The Dow is back at the 2024 high. This is a big test for boomers. $DJI $DIA https://t.co/WC4vkunASs
Hormuz Closure Wipes Out Qatar’s Oil and Product Exports
We've lost a LOT of Gulf crude oil production capacity to shut-ins following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz But we've also lost refined products, condensates, and natural gas liquids Here's Qatar, which normally exports ~1.5 MMbpd of which only 1/3...
Market Index Hides Sector Dispersion in Late Cycle
The market loves one big number. The real story is dispersion: sectors ripping apart while the index masks it. That’s late-cycle behavior with better branding. https://t.co/pbx2LGChSN
Equity Volatility Mirrors Oil Volatility Post‑Iran Crisis
Equity vol is just oil vol as you see by how the relationship changed after the Iran debacle started. CL now +104... I think VIX "outperforms" at some point. Good luck. https://t.co/DX8MdVrYpP
Big Tech Slide Drags S&P 500 Down 16% YTD
Mag 7 Malaise: What Big Tech’s Slide Means for the S&P 500 $SPY My Monday $MAGS musings on @stockcharts ... which is now -16.4% YTD https://t.co/hrMFx68w4r https://t.co/5qnmDHeO0y
China's Gold Premium Stays Elevated, Signaling Strong Buying
Gold Premium in #China Remains Well-Oriented. local premiums staying elevated during consolidation often reflects strong underlying buying.
SPLV Hits YTD High, Best Day Since November
$SPLV vs $SPHB ... fresh YTD high... nearly the best day since last November https://t.co/4JIqIxenbR
QQQ Trends Follow 21‑EMA Direction
Downtrends occur when the $QQQ is below the @mwebster1971 21ema Uptrends occur when we sustain above the 21 https://t.co/cqNcFqfp8R
Rising Mortgage Rates Signal Upcoming Home Price Decline
With each passing day, the mortgage rate lock-in effect fades. Nearly 22% of mortgage holders now have a rate above 6%. Which is more than the share with a rate below 3%. Ultra-low-rate owners are slowly getting replaced with 6%+ owners. Meaning...
Goldman Sachs Momentum Basket Slides over 7%, Near Yearly Low
MORE LIKE NOMENTUM Goldman Sachs’ high beta momentum long basket down >7% today, poised for its 4th worst session in the past year https://t.co/s1Xac2PsMI
Private Lending: Quiet Income, Loud Life Transformation
Private money lending has given me freedom. It’s a quiet stream of income that has a LOUD impact on my life.
High‑Yield Spreads Below 400 Signal Market Bounce
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
Private Credit's Safety Mask Hides Looming Liquidity Mismatch
Private credit is the new ‘safe’ asset… until investors ask for their money back. Liquidity mismatch is always invisible right before it isn’t. https://t.co/M1wS4yXZhw
Avoiding Mega‑Cap Tech, Holding Energy & Commodities Pays Off
We don’t own what the crowd owns. 🚫📈 ❌ No #Bag7 ❌ No Mega Cap Tech Instead: 🛢️ Energy (XOP) ⚡Utilities (XLU) 💵 USD 🌽 Commodities Result: 📉 Down <1% from highs
WTI Hits $100+ for First Time Since 2022
For the first time since the war started, WTI oil has settled above the $100-a-barrel threshold. It’s the first triple-digit settlement since 2022, when it closed above that level for >80 trading days. To match that, WTI would need to remain >$100...
LithiumIonic Secures $1,000 Spodumene Floor Deal
An exclamation point to this insightful color @D_Jimenez_Sch was @LithiumIonic signing spodumene offtakes with Yahua and Grand Chen Resouces on the heels of this Fastmarkets Shanghai conference last week: $1,000 price floor, no ceiling, no discount and $20M...
Only Top Short Sellers Embrace Gap‑up in Oversold Tape
Unless ur a fantastic short. This is why most traders don’t like a gap up in an oversold broken tape.
Big Tech Stocks Slide Deeply Year‑to‑Date
YTD $AAPL -9.1% $AMZN -12.6% $GOOGL -12.5% $META - 18.6% $MSFT -25.8% $NVDA -11% $TSLA -20.6% https://t.co/zGRemDg3Sb
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junk Over Four Decades
Over the last ~40 years we've seen a structural outperformance of S&P 600 (profitable small caps) vs Russell 2000 (junky small caps) There are three cyclical peaks: * 1999: Dot Com bubble * 2021: Meme Stock bubble * 2025: AI bubble Speculative junk outperforms late...
Watch Hidden Errors in Small ETFs, Not Just Giants
The error every ETF has you should be mindful of! While it may not matter on big ETFs like SPY or VOO, it could be meaningful on smaller ETFs.
Refinance Cash‑flowing Properties for Tax‑free Deal Funding
I NEVER sell a property that cash flows. The move is to refinance. Get an appraisal on the new value. Take a loan at 80% of that number. Pay off the old debt. Keep the difference. That cash is tax-free. You can use it...
Inflation Tax Hits All Assets, Unbalancing ‘Balanced’ Portfolios
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
Failure of MU May Turn Level Into Resistance
If $MU does not hold here then likely will overshoot and this level will become resistance. Big level here for bull/bear. https://t.co/LfA8JF7wLu
Stop Minimum Payments: Cut Debt Years to Months
Paying minimums every month and your debt still won't move? Fren. That's not a plan. That's interest collecting its check. Snatching your chain like T.I. snatched NuNu chain in ATL. 😅 Jordan was paying $818/month toward debt. Her balance moved $43. Not...
Natural Gas Spike Signals Crude Oil Slide to $50
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
Nvidia's Valuation Drops to S&P 500 Parity After a Decade
$NVDA Nvidia valuation falls to S&P 500 parity for first time in over a decade @seekingalpha GS https://t.co/uI914KMyKJ
You Can Master Money Without a Finance Degree
Back in 2018, I was a nurse making good money, but I was spending almost all of it and starting over every single paycheck. I started listening to finance podcasts and realized I was hearing concepts I’d literally never heard before....
US Natural Gas Floor Shifts to $3, Not $2
Is $3 the New $2 Floor for US Natural Gas? The front US natural gas future hasn't ended a quarter below $3 per million BTUs since 2Q24. Is $3 replacing $2 as the new floor? The 2026-27 winter should be a...
Heating Oil Doubles Q1, Echoes 2008 Energy Crisis
Heating Oil, Distillate Surges and Price Peaks - Heating oil's 100% surge in 1Q may emphasize extreme stress and the potential for demand destruction that typically results when energy prices spike. On a weekly basis since 1986, the 4.5 ratio...
Bull Markets Sabotage Breakdowns, Bears Sabotage Breakouts
During healthy bull markets you see breakdowns failing all the time. During the bear markets it's the breakouts that fail quite often.
Q1 Pump‑Then‑Dump Sets Potential Peaks for Metals
Gold, Silver, Copper 1Q Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Might Define 2026 - Signs of high-price cures, common in more elastic commodities, emerged in the metals sector in 1Q. My analysis suggests pump-then-dump patterns to record highs in gold, silver and copper could...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Possible 2026 Rebound
Gold's 2025 Rally Was Prescient: Is It Hangover Time? Gold may have one main problem -- ample room for reversion. At the end of February, the metal stretched to its highest-ever vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium...
Lower Rates Lift Yield‑Sensitive S&P Sectors, Not Small‑Caps
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
Metals Likely Pump‑Then‑Dump After 2026 Peak
2026 May Mark Enduring Metals Peaks - The Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex cut its 22% gain for 2026 (to the Jan. 29 high) to roughly 2% on March 27. Did the metals sector set a pump-then-dump peak,...
High‑Upside Short‑Term Picks Ready for Fast Momentum
Next week’s short-term watchlist: • $MSFT — expected upside: 63% • $PANW — expected upside: 33% • $CRWD — expected upside: 30% • $HOOD — expected upside: 79% • $META — expected upside: 57% I’m not looking for random hype. I’m looking for liquidity, strong themes, and...
Small‑cap Rally Ends with Sharp IWM Bearish Reversal
$IWM Quarterly. Another quarterly candle of note (completed tomorrow at the bell). Small caps were THE rotation pick for many into this year. Massive bearish reversal here after holding up for a while https://t.co/P2FBiYFT0c
S&P 500’s YTD Dip Could Rank Second‑worst Since 2009
The S&P 500 is currently down 6.6% on the year If it finished the year at those levels (a big if) it would be the second worst year since 2009 To be fair there have only been 2 down years in that...
Reopening Hormuz Won’t End Gulf’s Kill Zone
All the middle east, geopolitics and energy experts keep talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz as if that solves the problem. It doesn’t. The Strait is just the front door. The entire Persian Gulf is now a kill zone. 1/2 https://t.co/ZHp06lZzYS
SMH Downside Targets Using Measured Moves, Not Fib
This is $SMH showing two downside targets I do NOT use Fib and never have I am a Edwards and Magee/Schabacker measured moves guy https://t.co/6LWeuk1wnA
RIVN Nears 12‑Month Trendline, Bounce Back Possible
$RIVN getting close to retesting a 12 month trendline. Looks like a deal with Uber wasn't enough to sustain buyers, but worth watching for a bounce back when market confidence returns.
Renewables Linked to Lower Prices; Fossil & Nuclear Drive Up
Of course this guy is spewing nonsense. More fossil fuels and nuclear both correlate with higher prices worldwide. Only wind-water-solar correlates with lower prices. https://t.co/288jwtUdqr