Buy Quality, Skip Speculative Charts for Real Returns
Fiona’s advice for the week. Buy quality. Avoid stocks with no clear path to production. Pretty charts have never produced an LCE. https://t.co/vpJ1GyI4oZ
New Signals Boost Momentum & Mean-Reversion Strategy
Bonus momentum and mean-reversion switching strategy update with new signals. $TLT $GLD $TLT Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/f6qo530Cv7
CTAs Near Max Short, Set to Become Buyers
CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month,...
Know Your Fees: $20k Annual Cost Hidden
$20,000 a year in fees. On a $1M portfolio. And a $20,000 upfront charge she never knew about. She came to me for a second opinion on her portfolio. I asked one question: "Do you know exactly what you're paying?"
Reverse Thinking Reveals Hidden Risks in FICO
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
Mortgage Rates Rebound From Historic Lows to 6.38%
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.38% (highest since Sep 2025) https://t.co/EZVocXbneE
Weekly Safety Checklist Review for New Buyers
a weekly glance at our "Is It Safe for New Buying?" checklist... $TSX $QQQ $SPX $IWM https://t.co/DvO5LGSfDQ
War's Goal: Reopen Strait of Hormuz
So the main objective of the war is now to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was fully open before the war started. Got it https://t.co/4zzh9wHvya
Dollar Gains, Yen Rises Amid Middle East Tensions
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
Asian LNG Buyers Turn to Coal Amid Shipment Cuts
"With a cutoff in shipments imminent, Asian countries, the biggest importers of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, are already burning more coal and reducing consumption." https://t.co/U74LIL7DHC "the entire concept of L.N.G. being a reliable fuel is undermined," 😔 https://t.co/mYeNrKdiYC
Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran's Oil and Water Infrastructure
I suppose that today wasn't an oil jawboning day. Instead, US President Trump just threatened Tehran with blowing up not just all its power stations, but also its oil wells, Kharg Island, and "possibly" all desalination water plants (Note: the...
Renewable Intermittency Solved; Gas Supply Shocks Devastate Markets
Everyone keeps talking about intermittency. Let me show you two kinds. Wind and solar output varies hourly. It follows weather patterns that we can forecast days in advance. It has a well-understood distribution. We have storage, interconnection, demand response, and decades...
When BTFD Flips to STFR, Gamblers Stay Indifferent
Which begs the question, what happens when BTFD becomes STFR - "Sell The F'ing Rip?" Before you say, "They'd never," remember that the nihilist gambler plays to win. He's agnostic to market direction.
ETF Closures Surge, Average Age Halved, Consolidation Looms
We seeing an uptick in ETF closures as issuers trim fat and get rid of spaghetti that didn't stick. Notable that they getting MUCH less patient. The avg age of a liquidated ETF this year is 1yr 9mo, about half...
War Spurs Record EPS Upswings Across All Sectors, Tech Leads
Wild chart from @WSJmarkets here. Since the war started, all 11 sectors now have higher 12-month EPS forecasts than before and tech EPS had one of the largest jumps in EPS estimates in history. 🤔 https://t.co/ObyETJ4E3o
My Long‑Only Retirement Beats Traditional 60/40 by Staying Near Peak
In today's Early Look: "A Big #Quad3 Week Of Wins, It Was" Whoever you're paying to risk manage your hard-earned capital should be able to show you one — in real time, every day, no excuses. My Long Only Retirement Account...
Our Responses Shape Crises, Not Just History Repeating
While history rhymes, what is different this time inevitably reflects what we did in response to the last crisis. Thank you @Spencerjakab for reminding the crowd that, no, oil futures didn't exist during the last gas crisis. They were a...
LNG Shortage Threatens Coal Decline, Nations Reopen Plants
The LNG supply crunch puts at risk forecasts that coal consumption will begin to fall this decade 🇩🇪 Germany is considering restarting mothballed coal-fired plants 🇯🇵 Japan will expand use of less efficient coal plants 🇰🇷 Korea may exit its own...
Hedge Funds Capitulate: Record US Selloff and Europe Shorts Surge
Hedge Fund Selling Shows Signs of Capitulation From GS via BBG: - “Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge” - Funds cut global equities for a 6th straight week - Europe macro product shorts are at a 10-year high - CHART: US selling hit...
Don't Let Sunk Costs Dictate Your Trades
Sunk cost fallacy has probably destroyed more portfolios than any bear market. "I can't sell now, I'm down too much." The market has no memory of your entry price. It doesn't know. It doesn't care.
Bears Dominate: NYSE Posts 17 Consecutive Low‑High Imbalance
New lows are taking over NYSE new lows > new highs for 17 straight sessions. The bears control participation. When does the new low list stop expanding? 👉 https://t.co/TDXk8SmB1d https://t.co/h2g2QbQ4x9
War Turns Bonds Into Biggest Losers, 14% Loss
From Waterloo to the Iran conflict, the pattern hasn't changed. When governments go to war, bondholders pay. New research from Northwestern, Stanford, Columbia and UT Austin: 300 years of data, 14% average real losses in the first four years of war....
USD Strengthens While JPY Pulls Back Amid BOJ Intervention
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
Expanding Switch Spread Turns Against Bullish Traders
The switch keeps expanding. That spread is moving the wrong way if you are bullish https://t.co/m2ctrSUvzX
Most S&P 500 Stocks Slide 10%, Half Drop 20%
76% of the S&P 500 stocks are down 10% from their highs. Nearly half the market is down 20%... https://t.co/gojXiterri
Equal Weight Magnificent Seven Likely Topped, Below Support
The Equal Weight Magnificent Seven looks like it may have completed a top. Price just broke below support... How far does it fall from here? https://t.co/9JxB4KNbYv
2026 Mirrors 2025 Volatility with Early Down Days
The volatility we saw in 2025 is showing up again in 2026. Large down days are starting to stack up early in the year. https://t.co/vxrQyvPxGt
Small and Micro Caps Test Breakout Support
Small caps and micro caps both broke out. Now they’re pulling back to test that breakout level. Do they hold? https://t.co/rH30Rz4cou
Can Staples and Low‑Volatility Outperform S&P 500?
Do Staples and Low Volatility vs the S&P 500 hold the breakout and keep moving higher here? https://t.co/xQS4BCRIq8
Earnings Cycle Accelerates Despite S&P 500 Drop
"The S&P 500 index is down 9.2% from its recent highs, and the P/E ratio is down 18%. That 9 percentage point difference can be explained by an earnings cycle that is not only holding up but accelerating higher:" Fidelity's...
Jet Fuel Prices Double, Asian Markets Hit Hard
JET FUEL prices have more than doubled since the onset of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Jet fuel swaps in Singapore are trading at more than $200 per barrel up from just over $90 before the...
Buffett Credits “Intelligent Investor” As Life‑changing Guide
Warren Buffett on the book The Intelligent Investor. "It changed my life. If I hadn't read that book in late 1949, I would have had a different future. It instantly clicked with me that what [Ben Graham] was saying made sense."
Strait Closure Will Trigger Oil Price Spike, Curb Consumption
“The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation…If the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption – but not before prices spike to a level that forces consumers and businesses...
Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortage, Airlines Warned
Also - a serious jet fuel shortage is less than a week away across multiple different markets, including at some major European airport hubs - who are informing airlines to prepare for a potential ‘no-fuel available here’ scenario
Ferragamo Upgraded as Margins Rise From SKU Cuts
Bernstein upgrades Ferragamo to outperform as SKU cuts, −10% inventories, store reshuffle and wholesale exits boost margins; China execution and partner exits pose risks. Trade: buy FERR. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Asia May Shift to Coal, Accelerate Renewables, Cut Gas
“If you’re sitting in Asia, going through this again, it’s possible you change your strategy long term — rely more on coal for longer, build out your renewables faster and reduce your exposure to natural gas.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-29/iran-war-s-gas-supply-shock-pushes-top-consumers-back-to-coal
Spend Less, Invest the Rest: Proven Success
"When I was young, I read The Richest Man in Babylon, which said to under-spend your income and invest the difference. Lo and behold, I did this and it worked." — Charlie Munger https://t.co/dlvwys5Q0r
European Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge, Business Outlook Remains Tame
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
Commodities Surge; Quad3 Allocation Shields Retirement From Stagflation
COMMODITIES: ramped to new Cycle Highs of 368 on The CRB Index Friday Your Retirement Account should have had this Major #Quad3 Asset Allocation to protect you from Stagflation https://t.co/mNoHeoQpzx
PAY's Reorg Cuts Shares 30%, Boosts Dividend Yield
#PAY doing major reorganisation which it says will improve results. On course to reduce Share Count about 30% by FY28. ShareScope has fwd p/e 7.3 falling to 6.7 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. Interesting. I don't hold.
SPX Futures Rebound, Patience Required for Today’s Trade
$spx futs +35 reversed off the overnight lows. Makes today’s set up different. It means more patience and we’ll see if early strength holds/fades or builds. We will map out some levels And trade the market in front of us....
Free 12‑Hour ICT/SMC Trading Guide: Liquidity, Structure, Gaps
The Ultimate ICT_ SMC Trading Guide📊 12 Hour Free Course📊 Liquidity📊 Market structure📊 Fair Value Gaps📊
OpenAI's $730B Valuation Masks Potential Earnings Bubble
OpenAI just hit $730B. Up from $500B in October. But here's the uncomfortable part: there may be a bubble in the earnings themselves, not just the stock price. That's rarer. And harder to fix when it corrects. https://t.co/RRKIhVC2EE
West Asia Crisis Keeps Gold and Silver Prices Supported
Geopolitical Cushion: The West Asia crisis, now entering its fifth week, is providing a floor for prices. Investors are holding onto gold and silver as "safe-haven" assets to protect against uncertainty.
SPSY Shows Improved Fundamentals, Potentially Undervalued
#SPSY interesting Update. Cash up, debt down. Seems to have more customers which is good. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 4.4 RISING to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. It could be cheap. I don't hold.
Historic Oil Supply Shock Marks One Month, Crisis Looms
The biggest oil supply shock in history has reached the one-month mark And the energy industry is warning that the crisis is only beginning 👇⚠️ https://t.co/AZ661hxNtt https://t.co/HF3YvOdLZx
Buy the Dip Dispassionately, Unlike Cramer’s Approach
Respectfully, we are "playing" the precipitous drop much differently than @jimcramer. We are buying and dispassionately. We view dips as opportunities given, among other things, the valuation and consensus (EPS) resets. @dougkass
Nidec Faces Governance Shock, Lawsuit and Moody's Downgrade
Nidec governance shock: shareholder demands suit; accounting probe + Moody’s downgrade cut credit & earnings visibility. Risk: litigation, restatements. Trade: Cut Nidec exposure pending report. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Sell Losses Today, Rebuy Tomorrow for Tax Savings
📌 Tax Harvesting Opportunity – Act Today Those who are planning to do tax harvesting, today is the perfect day to execute it. As the financial year ends on 31st March, from 1st April a new financial year begins. 👉...
22,359.9 Emerges as Key Nifty 50 Support Level
Looks like 22,359.9 is acting as a nearby support zone for Nifty 50. Today’s low came in at 22,453 and buyers stepped in around that area. Feels like this zone will be important if the market dips again. #Nifty50