ICE Purchases Warehouses to House Detainees
ICE is buying up warehouses … for people. Great article in the Wall Street Journal featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/sIvP3Dpgd7
Rising Oil Prices Hurt Importers, Boost U.S. Exporter
"More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer." — The Wall Street Journal Russia and the Middle East also benefit.
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Retaliation on Gulf Energy Could Trigger Global Depression
If Israel/US attack Iranian oil fields and power plants, they are not going to sit back...they'll attack oil fields, desalinisation plants and power assets in the Gulf. Then, we'll get an economic depression.
Iran War Risk Unpriced, Expect Deeper Market Pullback
As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not...
Goldman Predicts Fragile US Growth, Risk of Crash
Goldman now sees US growth at 1.25-1.75%. That's stall speed. Not a soft landing. An economy running on fumes. At 1.25%, one supply shock — one policy mistake — tips it over. The runway is shorter than anyone on CNBC is admitting. $SPY $DIA https://t.co/4Krvew1NCo
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Patience Over Action: Buffett’s Key to Long-Term Wealth
Patience beats action in the stock market. Inspired by Warren Buffett, this investing mindset shows why waiting for the right opportunity is key to long-term wealth building. Stop chasing every trade, focus on value investing, smart decisions, and strong portfolio...
Understanding 100‑Baggers: Beyond Traits and Survivorship Bias
This was great from Chris Mayer. You tend to see two reactions to studies like the 100 bagger research: 1. “I’ll just copy the exact traits and find winners.” 2. “It’s all survivorship bias” Chris explains why both miss the point. https://t.co/iYW8itthV3
Builders Will Match Demand When Buyers Pay Enough
If people were generally willing to pay this … I’m confident Lennar and DR Horton would build it that way Those firms are **dialed in** on costs and demand
Build a Python Algo Yielding 472% Returns
How to make a simple algorithmic trading strategy with a 472% return using Python. A thread. 🧵
Low Money Flow Index Signals Imminent SPX Bounce
#SPX: The Money Flow Index is at significant lows, suggesting a tactical bounce is nearby as analyzed since 2000. Black arrows highlight relief bounces even in bear markets. While major bottoms have also followed (2023), the price must recover key...
Rising Diesel Prices Signal Delayed Inflation Surge
Diesel: $3.89 → $5.37/gal. Every truck. Every delivery. Every shelf. The inflation pipeline hasn't fully hit yet. Freight costs are the slow burn that shows up 60-90 days later. You haven't felt this yet. You will. $XLE $IYT https://t.co/OaV580UlNv
Major Tech Giants Lose Over
Big Tech continuing its decline... Amazon -21% Tesla -26% Meta - 23% Palantir -31% Netflix -30% Microsoft -34% Oracle -57% Bitcoin -47%
100k Troops in Iran Signal Prolonged War, Inflation Surge
The ‘100k troops on land in Iran’ is the new risk narratives for prolonged war and confirmation of escalation of inflation which would lead in global rate hikes again. Rumble in the Jungle is here…
Implied Volatility Peaks as Realized Remains Low on S&P 500
Massive gap between S&P 500 implied volatility (high) and realized volatility (low) Traders are girded https://t.co/WQAnDIXCuq
SaaS Multiples Dip as Growth Steadies at 14%
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
Skip Car Payments, Grow Six‑Figure Wealth Over Time
Friendly Reminder: The average car payment is $749/mo. If you invest that money instead? You'll have: $142,789 in 10 years. $485,350 in 20 years. $1,311,510 in 30 years. That "new car smell" is your money on fire 🤣
VNINDEX Rally Driven Mainly by Thinly Traded Vingroup
Yeah no, valuation multiples seem reasonable especially given this backdrop. The VNINDEX rally was partly due to the incredible performance of thinly traded Vingroup. The rest has not rallied as much.
US Insulated From Global Gas Shocks After LNG Imports Surge
Correct. In the mid-2000s, FERC was full of applications to build LNG import terminals. In that world, global gas shocks like 2022 and today would cause US prices to spike, but today the U.S. is largely insulated.
Lithium Prices Could Double by 2026 Amid China Supply Panic
Interesting take. Always tough to predict #lithium price. I think a doubling from here in 2026 is rich but not impossible. China’s current supply freak-out is real.
Florida Inventory Drop Reflects Elevated Base, Not 2008 Crisis
Be mindful that the inventory decline we are seeing in Florida was working from an elevated level, and since it's not 2008 or worse than 2008, the decline needs context on a year-over-year basis. Try not to overthink this one,...
Kalshi Predicts WTI Oil Hitting $139 by Year‑end
How high will WTI oil get by the end of the year? @kalshi market says $139 https://t.co/d9FiMu2DQS https://t.co/2ac3ey45Us
Weekly 20‑Minute Podcast Simplifies Portfolio Risk Insight
The whole point of 2Graybeards is to provide a credible once a week check in for busy people who need a 20 minute credible synthesis each week. If that's you and your trawling twitter or cnbc or mainstream media...
Decade of Gains: Taxpayer-Funded Buybacks Enrich 1%
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
JBS Beef Division Loses $617M, Up From $37M
GREEDFLATION? "JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported a $617 million adjusted operating loss for its beef business over the past year. A year earlier, the loss was $37 million." https://t.co/0kC8Fa6JhE https://t.co/yOxDcuW5oa
NVDA Faces Yearly Pivot at $161, Potential Drop to $147
$NVDA - As I posted last week it's headed to the yearly pivot at $161. If it closes below 161 at the end of next week the next downside target would be the 100 week MA that is currently at...
Iran's Inflation Drops, Oil Exports Surge Amid War
My latest with @davidlin_TV on Iran: "Since the war started, Iran's inflation has come down from 87% to 67%. Iranian oil exports have increased substantially at higher prices with lower discounts. You won't read these FACTS in the press." https://t.co/tnO36Tw8XU
Inflation Fears Undermine Bonds' Traditional Safe‑Haven Appeal
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
Power Costs Set to More Than Double Within Decade
Generac $GNRC investor day had some pretty frightening commentary on power costs and how it will impact consumer/business budgets Power costs are going to double, more than double in the next decade.
Dollar Weaponization Reshapes Finance, Gold, and Investment Flows
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
Goldman Sachs Cuts TOPIX Targets on Oil Outlook
GS Japan TOPIX: We revise down 3/6/12M target to 3800/4000/4200 to reflect the latest oil price forecast https://t.co/UexBFWYIqt
Semis, Gold, and Liquidity Have Peaked, Expect Rollover
This will not be a popular opinion, but it's mine: Semis, Gold & Liquidity Have Topped This Year From my live trading room March 20th... semiconductors, gold & broader liquidity trends have peaked after a multi-year rally. Mean reversion = prolonged rollover. $SMH...
Seek Low‑Competition Markets for Mispricing‑Driven Returns
People go about choosing a market all wrong. RE investors make money on mispricings Less competition means less price discovery which means more mispricings which makes it easier to generate outsized returns So your main criteria for a market should be "place...
Labor Market Cracks, Rates Rise, Growth Slows: Triple Warning
February payrolls: -92,000. Unemployment: 4.5%. The labor market cracked while everyone watched oil. A cracked labor market + rising rates + slowing growth. That's not a soft landing. That's three warning signs firing at once. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LY08qXAJYh
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Local Conflict Could Keep Brent Above $125 Longer
This is the advantage of having the conflict on your home turf and close targets. How does Brent not go above 125 and stay higher for longer if this escalates? https://t.co/gDEQNzeiGJ
XLI Industrials Near Support After 11% Drop
$XLI Industrials - worst S&P 500 sector ETF m/m... but coming into a support zone $153-$157? -11% from its February record high @stockcharts https://t.co/LSIQtTlpMK
Toyota Shifts to Solid‑State EVs Amid Execution Risks
EV acceleration forces Toyota to pivot to solid‑state batteries, modular platforms and scaled production; execution risk and Chinese cost pressure persist. Trade: buy TYO on pullbacks. Outlook: margins should narrow. ⚡ — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Chair Switch Could Trigger Unexpected Pivot Amid Rising Inflation
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
Simple, Consistent Investing Beats Spending for Millionaire Goal
I will become a millionaire before 30 by doing basic things: - don’t spend money on stupid stuff - max 401k, put it in S&P 500 fund - max Roth IRA - max HSA, invest it - every 2 weeks put money in brokerage invested...
Multiple Plans Enable Flexible Trading in Volatile Markets
I like this playbook. Just have multiple plans in moment as levels will be zones and u must know what u can handle. I’d love $spx $spy 2%-4% lower into Tuesday to play the bounce. Oscillator went out...
Japan Redirects Naphtha Imports Amid Middle East Reliance
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
Identify Your Investing School to Navigate Markets
To navigate the markets, you have to understand the different schools of investing. Bruce Greenwald’s framework breaks it down perfectly: 1️⃣ Efficient Market Believers: Focus on allocation & low costs. 2️⃣ Short-Term Investors: Betting on momentum & price changes. 3️⃣ Long Term Investors:...
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
VWAP Simplified: One Price, One Rule, One Trigger
VWAP isn’t complicated 😤 You made it that way. Start here👇 1 price 📈 1 rule 🧠 1 trigger 🎯 30 days. That’s it ⏳ Drop BEGINNER 📩 #vwap #tradingstrategy #daytrader
Oil Upside Limited Even With Iranian Embargo, Brent at $115
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
Chokepoint Threats Spark Oil Volatility Opportunities
Smart take from @HolaPrimeTrade on the Hormuz situation 🎯 When key chokepoints get threatened, commodity traders need to be ready. Oil volatility = opportunity for those positioned right. Check https://t.co/pKoy2KGz8x for firms with the best energy trading conditions 🛢️⚡
Market Drops Are Frequent; Long‑term Investors Still Profit
How Often the Stock Market Falls (1928–2021): • 5%+ decline: 95% of years • 10%+ decline: 63% of years • 20%+ decline: 26% of years • 30%+ decline: 10% of years • 40%+ decline: 5% of years Market drops are common. Long-term investors still come out ahead.