2012: Rare Generational Home‑Buying Opportunity via Peak Affordability
... and 2012 was a generational chance to buy a home... US Housing Affordability Index hit an all-time high then.. (moderate prices, low mortgage rates, recovering wages) @yardeni @realtors actually.. another @clementsmoney piece from me about that... https://t.co/PMNPDGiYEc https://t.co/zwLHFnQpRR
True Fiduciary Advisors Prioritize Whole‑Picture Strategy Over Products
The role of a fiduciary advisor is simple in principle — but rare in practice: To coordinate every moving part of the balance sheet and ensure every decision serves the client’s long-term interests. Not products. Not platforms. Not commissions. Strategy. Alejandro Hernandez Fiduciary Wealth...
Weekend S&P 500 Futures Live on Hyperliquid
It's pretty cool we now get to see S&P500 futures trading over the weekend in real time on hyperliquid.
Non‑Trump Accounts Can Outgrow TAs with Greater Flexibility
While many illustrations of Trump Accounts (TAs) project how their value can grow to eye-popping levels over time, the reality is that similar (or even better) results can be achieved in other types of accounts that have far more flexibility...
Past $90‑$100 Oil Deemed Normal, Now Sparks Panic
Pretty wild how WTI crude oil averaged $90-$100 from late 2010 to late 2014.. and everyone just assumed that was normal. Total freakout today... (even with significantly higher average and median hourly earnings) https://t.co/L6XCC4Wf8y
Gas Prices Near $4, Expected Spike to $4.20 Soon
Gas prices steady under $4, but I think the average will jump quickly to $4.20 by mid next week @gasbuddy @gasbuddyguy https://t.co/AWxp7hHZsD
CEO's $10M Purchase Signals Confidence Amid Cyber Sell‑off
$PANW and cyber sell off is way overdone imo but just ask the CEO who just bought $10M worth personally along w the new $1B buy back from the company. https://t.co/5kqfGDUTID
Sugar Prices Poised for Explosive Breakout, Societal Impact
Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level. This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally. Similar setups here: https://t.co/Z2VnzWMQwd https://t.co/u0ocJ7NrVj
Market Bottom Unlikely This Month, Likely in 2‑6 Months
Did a lot of tinkering this morning with backtests. Takeaway? Bottom not likely in the next month - much more likely in 2-6.
Fertilizer Shortage Triggers Crop Switch, Exposes Biofuel Policy Flaws
Given the nitrogen fertilizer shortages leading to more corn to soybean planting switches, I'll bet the eventual cost of the biofuel mandates is more than this. An idiotic policy.
Break Market Structure Before Reversal, Not Just Zone Tap
Most traders try to catch reversals the moment price taps a supply or demand zone. But that’s not how a real reversal works. You need to see a shift in market structure first. Something has to break. Then when price comes back into that...
Market Break Confirmed: Volatility Spikes, Next Collapse Uncertain
$VIX 31. $SPY -3.4% YTD. Brent +47% monthly. 10Y at 4.44%. Gold $4,439. If you're waiting for confirmation that something broke — this is the confirmation. The question is what breaks next. https://t.co/SxUUBm3sBm
2024 S&P 500 Slump Joins Rare Historic Lows
The S&P 500 -7% YTD Since 1983, only 2001, 2008, 2009, and 2020 had a worse return through March 27 https://t.co/ULDpN7L6wH
U.S. Stocks Always Rebound to All‑Time Highs
You can simplify it even further: The U.S. stock market has a 100% perfect record of coming back from downturns to hit ATHs. This indisputable truth is the ultimate anxiety killer. Better than Xanax. Instantly renders all doomer columnists and...
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
WING Crashes 55% as Valuations Prove Misleading
2 years later, $WING down 55%, multiple down 75%, below covid levels. Not only does valuation obv matter, but if you want to better understand financial media and so on read the bull articles from back then. https://t.co/RpeTSVRgG2
SolarEdge Revives Amid Tough Swing‑long Market
Not an easy environment for swing longs, but there are still small pockets of stocks working. SolarEdge seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge is one of them coming back from the dead over the last few quarters. #IBDPartner $SEDG https://t.co/OvmfGgTEJi
Robo‑advisors Rebalance; Agentic Finance Does More
Roboadvisors rebalance your portfolio Agentic finance negotiates your mortgage, finds tax alpha, and moves capital while you sleep These are not the same category
Buffett’s OXY Deal Delivers Dual‑Benefit Returns
Buffett’s Occidental ($OXY) deal is one of the cleanest examples of “have your cake and eat it too” investing. Let’s break down the real return Berkshire is getting 👇
Q1 Ends in Red: Managers Grapple With Market Decline
Q1 ends March 31. Portfolio managers are staring at red screens trying to window-dress a quarter that can't be fixed. $SPY down 3.4%. $QQQ down 4.2%. $VIX at 31. Good luck with the pitch deck. https://t.co/oVclL3s9SJ
200‑WMA Distance Trades: High‑risk, Low‑probability Longs
1 year later. 200 WMA distance stuff obv isn't always perfect but it's def one of the higher risk or say low probability longs that tend to occur when everyone gets bullish as well (crowd sorta can no longer deny it...
Claims Original Reverse Carry Trade Idea, Accuses Others of Theft
All these mother fuckers who made personal attacks on me because they disagreed with my reverse carry trade thesis on Japan are literally stealing shit from me now. Don’t you ever fucking forget I’m the OG of the idea.
AI-Driven Lettings Roll‑up Scales with $93M Fundraise
. @DanLifshits, co-founder of Dwelly, explains how he and his partners are building an AI-enabled roll-up in the UK lettings market by acquiring independent agencies and modernizing them with software. After completing 9 acquisitions in just 24 months, Dwelly recently announced...
Market Signals Beats S&P: Small Weekly Loss, YTD Gain
Weekly Market Signals ensemble -0.8% this week vs. -2.1% for $SPX. +0.2% YTD vs. -7% for SPX. Details in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/6cQUuOUhsI
Bonds Outpace Stocks, Signaling New Bullish Hard‑asset Era
Same Story - One month Bonds $TLT -5% vs Stocks $QQQ -7% Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 2022 this has not been the case, a significant -...
Trump Biofuels Bailout Hikes Gas, Food Prices, Harms Environment
The Trump administration's new biofuels bailout means higher US gas and food prices and worse environmental outcomes. But at least farmers will get another $3-4B from the government. https://t.co/OCutylNA8t
Arab Light Is Medium Sour, Not Brent‑compatible Light
💥Saudi Arab Light crude is not light; it is medium sour. Dubai/Oman crudes are medium sour. Brent is light sweet. Pricing Arab Light off Brent doesn’t make sense, whether geographically or quality-wise. https://t.co/AAkqiuh6HA
Two‑Thirds of Top 300 Metro Markets See Price Gains
Among the nation's 300's largest metro area housing markets... LEFT: The 99 markets with falling year-over-year home prices RIGHT: The 201 markets with rising year-over-year home prices Maps via @ResidentialClub
Iran War Erases $12 Trillion, Surpassing Three Major Economies
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
Avoid Stocks with Confusing Accounting, Buffett Advises
Warren Buffett’s investing rule is simple: if the accounting is confusing, walk away. Smart investing starts with transparency. If you can’t understand the numbers, you shouldn’t own the stock.
EU Commissioner Mulls Gas Price Cap Amid Shortages
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen considers capping gas prices "a possibility" amid oil shortages. IT'S TIME FOR THE EU'S JORGENSEN TO GET REAL AND PULL OUT A PHOTO OF THE GAS LINES...
Meta's Dip Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward Buying Chance
META REPORT CARD: THIS IS THE DIP YOU’VE BEEN PRAYING FOR Price now: $525.72 Fundamental Entry (30% MoS): ≤ $628 → WELL BELOW ✅ 38% MoS at $550 The market just panic-sold $119 BILLION off META’s market cap on March 26 over antitrust headlines. But...
Liquidity Crisis Unfolds as Stocks, Bonds, Crypto Plunge
Stocks down. Bonds down. Crypto down. $SPY. $TLT. $BTC. All falling together. That's not a correction. That's a liquidity accident in slow motion. $VIX at 31 is the market finally saying the quiet part loud. https://t.co/APZJuN8Erb
Fundamentals Beat Luck: Prioritize Allocation, Horizon, Selection
Don't mistake a "lucky" market timing trade for a "good" investment strategy. True financial success is built on a boring foundation: ✅ Proper Asset Allocation ✅ A Long Investment Horizon ✅ Superior Stock Selection That doesn't mean that timing cannot add a few percentage points...
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops Below Russell 2000 Valuation
Wow - Nasdaq 100 P/E now below that of the Russell 2000.. fractionally ... 24x GS https://t.co/L1wgeQ1E24
Post‑2008 Dollarisation Wave Restores 2000‑Era Share
Three distinct waves of dollarisation since the 1960s. The most recent wave, which emerged after the 2008 global crisis, pushed the dollar's share to nearly match its level from 2000, when the euro was introduced. https://t.co/A6TnrvTxXS
China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
Tech Valuations Lag Growth, Set to Outperform Soon
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
Early Masters Pairs Trade: Short Scheffler, Long Schauffele
Yes it's a few weeks away but not too early to start handicapping the @TheMasters. Here are a few @Kalshi @KalshiSports event contracts I am looking at and discussed on The Danny Moses Show...think of it as a "pairs trade",...
MFI at 25‑year Lows Signals Imminent Relief Rally
#NDX: Over the last 25 years, a relief rally has followed when the Money Flow Index reached current levels. There have been no exceptions, including the dot-com bubble in 2000, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2022 bear market. The...
Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Surge, Exposing Europe’s Fragility
Energy shock exposes Europe’s vulnerability as oil prices surge Linda Yueh explains how Middle East conflict is driving oil volatility and heightening risks https://t.co/j96NMGNF8A
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
This Week's Market Outlook: SPY, IWM, QQQ, GLD, TLT
What to expect from the stock market this week https://t.co/sWRedcbh21 $SPY $IWM $QQQ $GLD $TLT https://t.co/WrLLYF9aVB
Investors Distract Over “Trump Taco” Amid Market Decline
$SPY - Ok - let's think for a minute... Why are people talking about a "Trump Taco" when the market is a ~9% drawdown? Last time he waited until we were in roughly a 20% drawdown? Changing a tariff rate is also...
VIX Spikes on Gains Too, Not Just Losses
The VIX should spike on up days like it does down days. Volatility doesn't just happen one direction.
Wealth Grows by Spending Wisely, Earning More, Investing
Insurance and trusts are not how you build wealth, it’s how you protect wealth. Focus on controlling your spending, increasing your income, and investing consistently.
U.S. Gas Prices Up 30%, Still Below $5
Not all oil prices are created equal. There's only one that matters: what Americans pay at the pump. That price is up 30% from before the war (bottom right). That's up, but - at $4 a gallon - we're nowhere...
War‑Driven Supply Shock Meets Fading Peak‑Demand, Fueling Post‑Conflict Boom
Gulf War III is far from over. Long-term impacts are très TBD. But it's noteworthy that, just prior to the outbreak, the consensus peak-demand narrative for oil and gas began to crumble. Folks started to realize we're short...
Liquidity Decline Puts Market Volatility to New Test
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p