Oil May Rally to $109 Before Confirming Top
$USOIL - As I've already stated I think it made a major top at 119.48 but the top will not be confirmed until there's a weekly close below 90. The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it may rally to the 4th yearly resistance at 109 before turning down again. https://t.co/8uVJ0gDprb
Silver Poised for Short‑term Bounce, Bull Market Ended
$Silver - Made a multi week low at the yearly pivot at 61. I expect a multi week bounce into late April/early May. The bounce could get to as high as the 1st yearly resistance at 94. The bull market...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Gold Poised for Multi‑week Bounce to $5,028
$Gold - The weekly candle is bullish and indicates that it made a multi week low this week. I think it made a major top in late January and is following the 2011 price pattern. I expect a multi week...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Top Tax Tactics Advisors Use for High-Net-Worth Clients
Top 5 Tax Strategies Advisors Use With Wealthy Clients: Several effective tax planning strategies for high-net-worth clients, from tax-aware long-short investing to private placement life insurance and annuities to strategies for pre-liquidity business owners: https://t.co/bvOqLR93S1 (Cheryl Winokur Munk |...
Top Advisors Win Through Integrated, Multigenerational Wealth Engineering
What separates advisors at the highest level? Not access. Not products. Not performance. Structure. At a certain level of wealth, the issue isn’t complexity— it’s fragmentation. Real estate, insurance, and estate planning handled in silos. That’s where risk lives. A fiduciary approach requires: — Integration — Liquidity...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Dow Jones Slides 10% Into Technical Correction
DOW JONES CORRECTION The Dow Jones just closed down by 10% from its most recent highs the technical definition of a Correction 🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴🔴
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Stay Calm During 50% Market Drops or Underperform
"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder - and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
Tax Drag Hurts: Optimize Asset Location for After‑Tax Gains
Tax drag in taxable accounts are a real drag. Ignoring asset location is straggling after-tax money.
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
VIX Above 30 Signals Market Turbulence Ahead
VIX closed at 31, its highest weekly close since last year’s tariff sell-off. When $VIX holds above 30, things tend to break. In this episode, we talk through exactly what we’re watching and how to navigate this environment. Watch: https://t.co/WlGqDNQSk1 $SPY $QQQ...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
Buy Market-Driven Drops, Not Market‑moving Losers
Winners in this market are really winning. Great chart from @AriWald this AM showing high beta winners (high momentum) reaching a new cycle high vs high beta losers (low momentum). "We like to buy stocks dropping because of the market,...
Stay Near Target Risk, Always Own Market Beta
If you are persistently leveraged long assets above your risk target you are doing it wrong and this month is a lesson. Consider moving to your risk target If you are perma bear and always underinvested and in...
Use Sinking Funds in High‑Yield Accounts for Big Expenses
People always ask me how I plan for big expenses without blowing my budget. And my mentor taught me about sinking funds. Here’s how they work and why I keep mine in a high-yield savings account. 🧵
Wealth Survives Generations only with Structured Systems
Wealth doesn't protect itself. Structure does. The difference between a family that holds onto wealth across generations and one that loses it isn't usually investment returns. It's whether anyone built a system around the money before something went wrong.
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Natural Gas Soars While Tech and Mag7 Falter
Ideas for that are Working 2026 FCG Natural Gas Equities: +40% Big Tech QQQ: -9% Mag7 MAGS: -16% Bloomberg https://t.co/Ojdx0GXDHM
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Build a Checking Buffer, End Overdrafts Forever
I used to be an overdraft princess until I created a buffer in my checking account. Never overdrafted again.
Trade Pullbacks at New Highs, Rallies at New Lows
“Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell the first rally after a new low.” — Linda Raschke https://t.co/zMHrNzYgBM
US LNG in High Demand After Qatar Plant Shutdown
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...
CITIC's 2025 Record Profits Fueled by Trading Gains
For those interested in how members of the "national team" may have performed in the current stock market rally, Caixin notes the CITIC posted record-high revenues and profits in 2025, driven by proprietary trading and "financial investment". https://t.co/KXtyuP8mil
Germany Mulls Restarting Coal Plants to Curb Soaring Energy Prices
Germany will review whether to reactivate standby coal-fired power plants in an effort to reduce energy prices that have been elevated since the war in the Middle East https://t.co/xhEPnaeGOJ via @petrasorge https://t.co/v9EoTYKA9F
Bosai's Indonesia Smelter Signals China's Overseas Capacity Surge
Bosai plans an Indonesia aluminium smelting project in East Java, highlighting China’s accelerating overseas capacity strategy. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/bosai-indonesia-aluminium-smelting.html
Xi's Push for Intensive Growth Faces Execution Hurdles
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
Earn More, Spend Less: Beat Lifestyle Inflation
Every time your income increases, your lifestyle should not automatically follow. Most people get a raise and immediately upgrade everything. (New phone, new apartment, new outings, new everything) The income went up but the savings stayed the same. This is lifestyle inflation, and it...
China Opens Nickel, Lithium Futures to Foreign Investors
China will open nickel and lithium futures to foreign investors, aiming to strengthen global metals pricing power. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/china-nickel-and-lithium-futures.html
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Supply Chains
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
Turkey Leverages Gold Reserves for Liquidity, Defends Lira
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
Neglecting to Review Old Policies Costs More Than Bad Investments
The most expensive financial mistake people might make is NOT a bad investment... It's an unreviewed one. - A policy bought 10 years ago. - A fund set up and forgotten. - A beneficiary nomination that hasn't been updated since before the children...
Japanese Investment in India Hits Record $8.8 B
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Tampa Records First Net Outflow in 40 Years
Tampa, FL just hit its lowest migration level on record. A net 1,539 people left Tampa's metro area in 2025 - the first decline ever recorded going back four decades. Worse yet - birth rates are plummeting, and the area now...
Chinese Stocks Show Resilience, CSI 300 Leads Surge
Chinese stocks will be relatively resilient amid the March selloff. Heard this view a lot on shows this entire month. It's turned out to be on the money. CSI 300 is set for biggest monthly outperformance since middle of last year...
Thailand Secures Safe Strait of Hormuz Passage for Tankers
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
Big Green Candle Signals Bull Counterattack and Short Squeeze
BIG GREEN CANDLE: THE BULLS COUNTERATTACK 📊 Aig Read: The Trampling of Shorts 📊 The Real Body of a K-Line The Secret of Energy 📊 The Shadow of the K-Line : Traces Traces of Struggle 📊 Doji Star: The Face of Indecision 📊 K...
Identify Higher Highs, Lower Lows and Breaks
What are HH, HL, LH, LL 📊 CREATE HIGHER HIGH & HIGHER LOWS📊 Lower High & Lower Lows📊 Prince Stuck in "MUD" 📊 (Break of Structure-BMS) 📊 (Break of Structure-BMS) 📊
China's 15th Plan Signals End of Expansion Era
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
Supply Disruptions Reshape Oil, Gas Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
PODCAST: What’s next for oil, natural gas and the U.S.-Iran war? A great pleasure to join a special edition of the #ColumbiaEnergyExchange podcast with host @JasonBordoff to discuss how supply disruptions are reverberating across the industry. 🎧Listen now: https://t.co/Nfa3nQ6UWm
Markets Tumble as Fed Hike Odds Surge to 52%
The Dow just entered correction territory. Down 10% from its peak, joining the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its fifth straight losing week — longest since 2022. Oil blew through $100. Futures traders now price a 52% chance the Fed...
India's Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
High Prices May Accelerate Oil Demand Peak
Unlikely, IMHO. On pre-war path we were still 5+ years away from the likely global peak of oil consumption. But if the crisis extends high prices for years, and accelerates switching to electric transport, that will accelerate. Too soon to...