When Duration Shifts, Rates Suddenly Matter
The “rates don’t matter” crowd always disappears when duration starts moving. Watch $TLT. Watch $HYG. Equities can pretend yields are irrelevant… …right up until refinancing becomes a math problem. https://t.co/7BiLk7apui
7% Mortgage Rates Trap Sellers in Negative Real Yield
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
VIX9D Slightly Below VIX Amid Broad Market Decline
The only thing vaguely positive about this chart is that $VIX9D is just a hair below $VIX. Otherwise, it's all bad news. https://t.co/bwp5uLxYty
Thursday‑Friday S&P 500 Slumps Highlight Weekend Risk
WAR MEANS WEEKEND RISK Thursdays and Fridays have been very bad for the S&P 500 this March https://t.co/p5kmLv9XmT
Out‑of‑state Tuition at Low‑selectivity Schools Wastes Money
Heterogeneity and debt are the killers here. If you are paying out of state tuition for a school with an 80% acceptance rate, you are doing it wrong from a financial point of view. It's not about the educational return,...
Europe Urges Early Gas Refill, Traders Stay on Sidelines
European governments are keen for traders to make an early start refilling severely depleted storage tanks But the gap between summer and winter gas prices is telling them to wait. For now, traders say they are largely staying on the sidelines...
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Market Valuations Shifting: Nvidia and Big‑tech Multiples Puzzling
The re-rating of Nvidia makes no sense quite honestly. Separately, moving the FCF multiple of Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet also doesn't make sense to me. That said, the pricing model for public markets are changing rapidly... https://t.co/bOnVWE3STO
Valuations Drop 12% Even as EPS Expectations Rise
📊 Valuations are down 12% while EPS expectations are up @DanGreenhaus breaks down the market math nobody is talking about 🎙️ https://t.co/T03CfonYMo
Wealth Grows Through Daily, Long‑Term Rational Investing
Building wealth isn’t about getting rich overnight, it’s about staying in the game. Charlie Munger’s mindset: show up daily, think long-term, and make rational moves in the stock market. That’s how portfolios grow.
IEA Urges EU to Decouple Gas From Electricity Pricing
The EU should sever the link between gas and electricity costs to limit the fallout from the Iran war, the IEA has suggested 🇪🇺⚠️ In the European marginal pricing system, gas is the fuel that effectively sets the power price https://t.co/rvKWzsWwey
Microsoft Nears Seasonal Low, Historically Bounces Strongly
Microsoft $MSFT is nearly retesting the Liberation Day lows and -35.4% below '25 highs... @seasonax seasonally, it tends to bottom in March and through August has a great 8/9 batting average with average gain +25.2% vs. the one loss at -4.5%......
High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
MAGS Near Key 50% Retracement Support at $54
$MAGS - Approaching the 50% retracement level of the April-October rally at $54. The 100 week moving average is also at 54 and reinforces the significance of that support level. https://t.co/FByaUR1fba
Oversold Markets Trigger Crash; Historic Tariff Lows Persist
Markets crash from oversold levels. Few understand this. I maintain the tariff lows of last years are in play.
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
6.64% Rate Threshold Determines Mortgage Demand
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
New 60/40 Portfolio: Stocks Meet Commodities
I've talked a lot about stocks and commodities and the new 60/40. This is basically that
USD/JPY Breaches 160, Eyes Potential 162 Breakout
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
PLTR Vols Cheap, Skew High—Put Spreads Attractive
Poking through a bunch of vol surfaces this am...PLTR vols look cheap relatively and the skew is jacked which means put spreads are cheap. PLTR kinda has that BTC signature...held up well in the past month but got worked in...
BBD RIN Gallons Appear to Match Leaked OMB Figures
Will have to do some digging to convert the BBD RIN gallons to physical gallons, but seems very close to the leaked OMB numbers from a couple weeks ago.
IV Spike Before Events Leads to Premium Collapse
IV Crush: When Hype Turns Into a Premium Collapse Implied volatility is the driver that inflates option prices. Right before major events like earnings, announcements, catalysts. IV spikes and premiums get bloated. Example: You buy a $TSLA call for €4.50 before...
Helium and Sulfur Shortages Threaten Mining and EVs
We are just weeks from major disruptions to mining, EVs, and all such things due to Helium and Sulfur shortages It is not the end of the world, but it will likely end the business cycle unless solved within 7-10 days...
Oil & Gas Long Setup Sh
$SD Daily. Non-extended oil & gas play. Long setup. Bankruptcy back in 2016, so perhaps the stigma is still there. But sector is bullish & chart overall strong. https://t.co/mwf3OmFEEj
Cold War with China Underm
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Argentina Permits 15% Ethanol Blend to Curb Soaring Fuel Prices
🇦🇷Argentina on Friday announced it will allow up to 15% ethanol blending in gasoline to combat rising fuel costs. The country's gas prices are up 18% so far in March. https://t.co/yYII0vDBDn
Trump and Netanyahu's Iran Conflict Spikes Global Oil Costs
Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran, oil prices, jet fuel, and virtually everything under the sun, are taking a hit. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/rjfW2er9UQ
Tech and Communications Services Lead Weakest Sectors This Week
Tech & Comm Services by far the weakest sectors this week so far @koyfincharts https://t.co/fvjDWdZzFu
640 Remains SPY’s Key Level as Negative Exposure Rises
$640 is still the MVC on $SPY. We've really pinned $640 on SPY for the majority of this session. Negative exposure has continued to build at $640. Exposure at $635 has nearly doubled since the open.
Iran Conflict Spurs Global South Renewable Shift, Canada Lagging
Why Energy Shocks Like the Iran War Are Accelerating Electrification Canada gets it wrong. Iran war is encouraging Global South (inc Asia) to switch from oil/LNG to renewables/electrotech. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/7IbLVXk81Ow
All
The 12 most overbought $SPX stocks. All from one sector. Any guesses? The better question - who's buying them NOW? https://t.co/0geWuPFDGZ
Insights Into China's New Five-Year Plan
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
Real Estate Can Legally Slash Your W‑2 Income
Most people don’t realize this exists. There’s a way real estate investors can legally reduce their W-2 income using what looks like a “passive” asset. But it doesn’t get treated that way. And almost nobody understands why. Today’s guest is Lance Morgan @collegefundingeducation, founder of...
2bps Fee Cut Propels SPYM to Vanguard‑Level Flows
Wrote today about the Power of One (Basis Point). $SPYM cut its fee to 2bps, making it the cheapest of the 4 SPX ETFs by just 1bp and BOOM, hockey stick aum growth after a decade in oblivion. It is...
Dollar May Fade, But Not Anytime Soon
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
Unprecedented 2008-Level Volatility: Half Sessions Flip
⚠️ The market hasn’t behaved like this since 2008 28 intraday reversals in 3 months. Almost HALF of sessions completely flip direction. Most traders are getting chopped trying to chase moves. 👇 Comment “VOLATILITY” — I’ll send you the Discord link# #DayTrading #FuturesTrading #TraderLife
Mega Backdoor Roth: Solo 401(k) Unlocks $70K for High Earners
This is the most popular time of year for my favorite loophole in the US tax code The IRS says if somebody made over $165K filing single or $246K married filing joint in 2025 they cannot contribute directly to a Roth...
10 ETFs That Could Make You
ETFs made my wife and I millionaires in 7 years. But there's over ~10,000 to choose from. Here are 10 ETFs that can make you a millionaire in 2026:
Moral Hazard and Bias Skew TACO Market Behavior
The problem with the TACOs is the moral hazard. Market participants are afraid of selling and missing a big rally. It now goes beyond financial engineering. It's a mix of that and cognitive bias manipulation. #ES_F $SPY
Eurozone Ministers Discuss Energy Risks and Immediate Support Options
At the invitation of Eurogroup President Kyriakos (@Pierrakakis), today I addressed Finance Ministers from across the euro zone on the major energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East and the immediate options to support energy and economic...
Two Decades of Growing Seller‑Buyer Gap in Sacramento
The gap between sellers and buyers. Here's a wide view in Sacramento over the past 25 years. More on my blog this week. https://t.co/jfVvNTgTO5
Turn Corrections Into Liquidity: Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Rise
With stocks and bonds positively correlated again (but in the wrong direction), there’s a bit of 2022 déjà vu right now. Back in 2022 as the cost of capital reset after years of ultra-low rates, the 60/40 model broke down...
Watchlists Become Excuses, Not Buying Opportunities
When a stock you own drops 25% it's an "opportunity". When it drops 10% more you call the CEO to verify the thesis and buy more. When it drops 10% more you get annoyed insiders aren't buying. When it drops...
New Map Shows Diesel Cost Per Mile by Location
We've created a new map, which tracks the estimated cost per mile for buying diesel, depending on where you purchase fuel. https://t.co/JKDNneabWc
Three-Year Bull Markets Often Last a Fourth Year
Bull markets that reach a third year typically extend into a fourth. @soberlook Fisher Investments https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/sBX0mRXRR7
S&P 500 Faces Fifth Weekly Loss, Longest Since 2022
S&P 500 on track for its fifth consecutive weekly loss, the longest streak since the 2022 bear market https://t.co/WMl1TxYae5
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
AI Pressure Drags Credit, Software; Bonds Inch Higher
Mag 7, credit card stocks, software are getting whacked... AI has long knives out... $RSP -0.3% $MDY $IWM -0.4% $VEU +0.2% $AGG now up.. +0.1% https://t.co/EEjbRTBI25