One-Click ETF Share-Class Swaps Eliminate Tax Hassles
'You will soon be able to log into your brokerage acct and click one button (to instantly move your $ from a MF share class to an ETF class with no tax implications). Today it's a manual process that is a lot of paper work.' - Josh Schnieder at DFA on Trillions podcast talking about ETF share classes, which he sees as being big deal as the tech (which is coming later this year) will make it McDonald's easy to do. This was a great primer on the ETF share class trend, we asked him everything feat @kgreifeld @joelwebershow Link to listen is in next post or just find on Spotify et al.
Hedge Funds' Top Edge: Time Series Momentum
A 23-page research paper reveals the number 1 method Hedge Funds use to beat the market: Time Series Momentum This is how: 🧵
Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
According to The Economist, the biggest emerging market countries that are being hit by the energy shock are: Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Ethiopia. THE COUNTRIES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/ED3ID96us3
Mega‑Cap Weakness Pulls Index Below Long‑Term Range
Last week the Mag 7 broke below its well-defined trading range, which had been in place since last October. As I have often written, in a concentrated market, as go the mega caps, so goes the index. That is now...
2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Investors Adapt When Home Prices Stop Rising
In our latest Real Estate Conversations podcast I talk with Dave Meyer of the massive investor community, Bigger Pockets. One thing I wanted to learn was what happens to the investor game when we can no longer rely on home prices...
US Stock Market Among Least Concentrated Globally
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
Gas Prices Surge 32%, Hitting Stretched Consumers
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
Kazakhstan’s View of China Hardens After Ukraine War
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Gold Hits Target, Awaiting Lower‑Timeframe Confirmation
📊 GOLD Update 🪙 🎯 Gold has reached our predicted level. Now we will wait for Lower Time Frame confirmation: 🔄 Market Structure Shift (MSS) ⚡ Reaction from the zone Once we get the proper confirmation, we will share the trade setup with you. 📉📈
Midcap Portfolio Ending Q1 as Smallcap: Style Drift?
Is it considered style drift if a midcap portfolio ends 1Q as smallcap? Asking for a friend.
Analyst Targets Mirror Price, Not Fundamentals—Do Your Own Analysis
Are You Still Holding $SOFI? Revealing Wall Street Retail Trap that nobody talks about I just dove deep into the classic Wall Street Retail Trap that’s burned almost every investor at some point. After analyzing 44 analyst reports, here’s the brutal finding: Their price...
GBP/USD Hits Key Resistance, Rally Stalls
Quick video update on the #GBPUSD levels British Pound Struggles as Key Resistance Caps Rally Again https://t.co/fka5fSX6Wb On YouTube: https://t.co/HiVu0iuLkg
7 Simple Habits That Saved My Family $100K
These 7 habits saved my family over $100k... And none of them require you to make an extra dollar. Save this before you forget it... Share it with someone who needs it... And follow me for more @budgetdog 🤝🏻
Trade IBIT: Hold Below VWAP Until Breakout
History doesnt always repeat itself. But it can rhyme. $IBIT early chop. Break trend and hold under VWAP and trade into even dollar low. Once the colsolidation range is broken, hold til the next level. #stocks #TradingEducation #TradingOpportunities https://t.co/Ijk1BhmD2O
Survive Markets by Controlling Position Size and Cutting Losses
Most people don’t lose money from bad stocks. They lose from bad positioning. Position size controls survival. Entries control conviction. Bull market: Go heavy → 📈 Bear market: Stay light + cut fast → 🛡️ Over a full cycle: Survive → Then win. The biggest mistake? Refusing to take a loss. That’s...
Supply Shift Keeps Home Prices From Crashing in 2026
Why haven’t home prices crashed? Some thoughts and perspective on my blog today. I think many people expect 2007 results with 2026 stats, but it’s a much different supply story today. Enjoy my weekly post if you wish. https://t.co/i3BLmGTvo4 https://t.co/hcYtZOpegS
Endurance Meets Financial Freedom: Build a Life‑First Business
✨New Fit Rich Life Podcast✨ We talk about: - Endurance in fitness and financial independence - Justin’s bucket strategy to enjoy the FI journey - Building a life-first business & more 🎧 Episode 103 available everywhere.
Google Chart Follow‑up Confirms Enduring Pattern Effectiveness
Some asked for $googl chart follow up as it’s good to see some patterns still work. https://t.co/IvJz3BQ3VQ
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Both Indices Still Bullish, EW Hits 2025 Support
Technically, both the cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices remain in their cyclical bull markets, which started some 41 months ago in October 2022. We still have higher highs and higher lows, which are the very definition of an uptrend. Both indices...
Simple Three‑Tier Kids Portfolio for Market Volatility
My kids' portfolio for 2026: 30% Staples — boring ETFs. Don't think. Just automate. 40% Mature Growth — $NVDA $TSM $META $AMZN $GOOG $NFLX $MS $GS 30% High Growth — $PLTR $APP $HIMS $CRDO $SHOP $UBER No high risk tier for kids. Three tiers...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Fuels Dec26 WTI Spike
Growing US, Canada Crude and Fuel Surplus - When the December 2026 (Dec26) WTI crude future started trading in 2017, the US and Canada had a supply-demand deficit near 1 million barrels a day (MMb/d). Now it's a roughly 7 MMb/d...
Small‑cap Russell 2000 Outpaces Nasdaq—Real Rotation
Everyone is watching the Nasdaq. Nobody is watching small caps. The Russell 2000 is up over 1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. That's a 6-point gap — and it's barely being discussed. Small caps don't outperform like this by...
Trump Boosts Clean Energy, Prompting Dip Buying
Trump tends to be good for clean energy $PBW stocks and we have our first "pullback against" the new rally here vs. dirty $XOP oil & gas energy stocks... who's buying the (relative) dip? https://t.co/inQkFxBlBE
Krugman Explains Economic Impact of Iran Oil Embargo
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Yen Carry‑Trade Stress Triggers Kospi Slide, Global Ripple
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
HeyDude Turnaround Likely Suboptimal, Management May Resist Admission
From the $CROX initiation: "HeyDude’s turnaround efforts will require attention and investment; there’s a good chance it will be a suboptimal use of those resources... Even if that becomes apparent, I don’t think it will be easy for management to...
Weekly US Cap Charts Show No Immediate Threat
left: U.S. micro-caps $IWC middle: U.S. small-caps $IWM right: U.S. mid-caps $MDY three weekly charts... don't know about you, but i don't see anything looking particularly ominous (yet) about the pictures... https://t.co/vbKj3xs8HY
KB Home Sees Demand Rise in Jacksonville, Orlando; Tampa Lags
Giant homebuilder KB Home is seeing some demand improvement in Jacksonville and Orlando—while Tampa still remains challenged
Iran-Driven Reversals Signal Growing Pressure in Tight Range
We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...
Global Fuel Crisis Shows Renewables Are Only Exit
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 27 update of the structural heart attack currently taking down the fossil fuel system ➡️India: PANIC. Long queues at petrol pumps nationwide, total dry-out risk up. 9 days of reserves left. Restaurants shut in...
North America’s Self‑sufficiency Fuels Massive Oil Profits
Goldman is onto something important here. This is not your grandfather’s oil crisis. It won’t be felt as a supply shock across the Atlantic because North America is a self-sufficient producer. It also means US and Canadian oil companies are about...
Middle Eastern Funds Reap Huge Gains on Chinese AI IPOs
Middle Eastern funds have racked up outsize gains from bets on newly-listed Chinese AI companies China uninvestable? Seems like so long ago now... https://t.co/u1DyM6ixKs
AI Boom Fuels China's Record‑breaking Trade Despite Oil Shock
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Oil Prices Near $100 Amid Overoptimistic Peace Hopes
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Lam Research AI Gains Face Potential Head‑Shoulder Decline
$LRCX Daily. Lam Research another AI memory winner in recent quarters, like $MU $SNDK. But latest rally sets up possible bearish head & shoulders, like $SMH ETF https://t.co/VzMDwhwfpM
5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
Beta Rotation Signals Utilities Weakening vs S&P
we've got a #betarotation signal for equities that fired as the 4-week rate of change for utilities $XLU vs. $SPX has fallen significantly after it's rally... https://t.co/RslsxolzBm
Earnings Growth Offsets Falling P/E, Signals Healthy Market
If that reset continues, we could get a 2022 “echo,” in which equities correct entirely on the basis of falling P/E’s, while earnings continue to grow. Remember that stock prices are driven not only by earnings and payouts but also...
Brent Near $108, Awaiting White House Price‑Cut Signal
Brent is close to $108. Will we hear a statement from the White House today that brings back to low $90s? 😉
Buy Quality Blue‑Chip Stocks on Sale Now
Always a pleasure talking with @SquawkCNBC and @BeckyQuick. Trying to think longer term to buy quality companies on sale. $NFLX $UNP $SNPS $DOV $ANFGF $MS
Volume Pocket Surges 60% in One Day
Volume Pockets are can be really powerful. This one is up another 60% today https://t.co/JXtAgTvZ9G
Broad Indices Fall, Small‑cap ETFs Defy the Trend
$SPX down 4% YTD, $CCMP down 6%, yet $RSP flat, $IWM up 2%. $RLV > $RLG by 11%. Alot going on under the surface in markets.
Investors Underweight International as Market Shifts Toward 50/50 Split
Imagine if the global stock market reverted to 50/50 US/ex-US... doesn't seem like folks are positioned for it.. ...in today's environment, "we are bullish international" means having like a 10% allocatoin to it lol $EFA $EEM $ACWI $VEU https://t.co/bSBFac5qch
AMD Holds, Memory Stocks Key, Stay Selective
📺 $AMD LOOKS STRONG & CAN MEMORY STOCKS LEAD? $AMD is showing relative strength with strong closes and volume, making it one of the few tradable names in a weak tape. Memory stocks are the key group to watch, with names like...
Break‑even WTI Price Needed to Cover Well Costs
What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? @DallasFed via @macrolutzie https://t.co/5sVYLcuBRm
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Copper Miners and Prices Dip, Bottom Forming?
Copper Miners $COPX vs Price of Copper $COPPER. Down today but looks like it's hammering out a bottom. https://t.co/CCHLPeGBwv
XLF Poised for Six-Day Winning Streak
$XLF trying to sneak green.. would be a 6-day winning streak More from me: https://t.co/UKggIGLeI1 https://t.co/neQp5IrWeZ