Small Caps Outperform Big, Ratio Hits Century‑High
Over the last century the smallest stocks (green, LHS) have beaten the biggest stocks (red, LHS) by six times (blue, RHS). But not in a straight line. The market has cycled. And the cycles were long. The blue line shows the small versus big market cycles. When the blue line rises, smalls win. When the blue line falls, the biggest win. The second chart shows the relative sizes of the biggest and smallest stocks. We have just passed the most extreme levels in the last century. Today's ratio is still near all-time highs, exceeding the late 1990s Dot Com bubble and the early 2020s Meme Stock bubble. https://t.co/nALeQxx2NG
New StockChartsTV Video Breaks Down $SPX Trends
Check out the latest video I recorded for @StockChartsTV @StockCharts yesterday. All about $SPX. This thumbnail also marks one of the last times I put on a tie. 😎
Iran Conflict Threatens U.S. Housing Recovery Beyond Rates
How the Iran war could crush the U.S. housing recovery, and it's not just about mortgage rates https://t.co/ecPYsnXmA5
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil Surge Signals Market Crash, Gold Surge, Inflation Spike
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Staying Long on Akamai Beats Failing Software Sector
RPK @RPKent nice job staying long of Tech via $AKAM while Software continues to implode
Hormuz Crisis Threatens Europe, Fuels US Inventory Uncertainty
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Quality Factor's Historic Underperformance Poised for Sharp Reversal
Try to remember that just 3 months ago we were in the middle of the most bizarre underperformance by the Quality factor this century. Almost 1999 on the performance gap. Historically, when this chart snapped, it snapped hard the other...
Smart Traders Enter on VWAP Pullbacks, Not Breakouts
Breakouts look exciting… until they fail 🚫 Smart traders wait for the VWAP pullback 📉 That’s where value lives. That’s where I enter. Drop “SETUP” 👇 #TraderLife #VWAP #PriceAction
Supply and Distress Drive Home Price Cycles
Supply and distress supply are the big keys; we have 84 years of data on this and many economic cycles with nominal national home prices data. https://t.co/7ojUXodFpL
Markets Hedge Both Ceasefire and War, Await Resolution
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Oracle Slides, Must Hold to Avoid February Low
Oracle is back to bleeding lower. Needs to hold in here soon to prevent that February low retest. $ORCL https://t.co/MeqTVksAx1
Outpatient Demand Soars, New Space Scarce and Pre‑leased
Houston is expecting a 16% jump in outpatient patient visits by 2029. New MOB construction under way? Less than 1% of existing supply. What little is being built is already spoken for: roughly 80% of that space is preleased before...
Trump and Xi Set to Meet in Beijing May 14‑15
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold their highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay that brought fresh uncertainty to relations between the world’s largest economies. https://t.co/mGv6Vxm4He
Tech ETFs Show Strong 3‑Month Gains vs Peers
here's a bunch of the key technology $XLK ETFs in @Optuma ratio grid style, allowing for an easy comparison of the % returns vs. the others... #SectorWatch left: 3-month % change right: 1-month % change... $PTF $PSCT $SMH $CHAT doing the 3-month relative...
Excitement Costs Returns; Prioritize Value and Patience
In stock market investing, chasing excitement often destroys returns. Charlie Munger reminds us that smart investors focus on what truly adds value, compounding, patience, and clarity, rather than unnecessary risks or short-term wins. Excitement is expensive in the stock market.
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Sky‑High Rates Stall Existing Home Sales, New Sales Flat
Rates getting to 18% made is less affordable back then, different ways to measure this, but prices & rates exploded. A big variable on why existing home sales haven't finished a year under 4,000,000 the last 3 with with new...
Energy Stands Alone as 2026’s Sole Positive Sector
Energy is the ONLY sector positive in 2026. Not tech. Not financials. Not healthcare. Oil and war. That's the market's only winner. $XLE $XOM $SPY https://t.co/knCwIMzMam
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
Five Essential Investor Lessons Amid Market Turmoil
With everything happening out there, it is easy to get swept up in all the emotion. In our latest @CarsonResearch blog, I take a step back and look at 5 lessons all investors need to know. https://t.co/B5u4UhzmLw
Oil Below 86 Needed to Sustain Equity Rally
Light Crude Futures $CL_F $USO 2 hour chart on left 30 minute on right Oil had been holding support btwn 94-92 until the 🟠"taco tweet" removed some of the perceived risk in oil It dropped down to the anchor from the beginning of the...
Macro Funds Suffer Double‑digit Losses in March
This month is proving painful for macro traders: Brevan Howard Master Fund: -6% (MTD through March 20), -0.5% YTD Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: -3.7% (MTD through March 20), +0.6% YTD Taula: -9.6% (MTD through March 20) Caxton Macro: -15% (MTD...
USD/CAD Breakout Sparks 2% Surge to 1.38
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surges 2% After Breakout – 1.38 Now the Battleground https://t.co/41a7o4JqSD $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/R9OllkfdxO
1970s Rates Spiked, yet Home Prices Outpaced COVID Era
From 1977 to 1979, mortgage rates rose from 8% to 13%, yet home prices still grew faster than during the sub-4% COVID years. Rates peaked around 18%, with spreads being quite large at nearly 6%. The spread market today is...
Canadian Banks Rise, US Banks Fall versus TSX Benchmark
4 financials... two Canadian, two American... all vs. the stronger denominator $TSX $EWC market... $CM + $TD - absolute & relative uptrends $BAC + $JPM - absolute & relative downtrends https://t.co/GewGS1r3RL
US‑Iran Conflict Bolsters Russia’s Grip on Global Food Markets
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
US Stocks Lag Behind Canadian Equivalents, Raising Opportunity Cost
it's clear... U.S. stocks whether equal-weighted $RSP or market-cap $SPX weighted are trending down vs. Canadian stocks $EWC making an oppoortunity cost for U.S. investors... https://t.co/MKHgNCqmYQ
SK Hynix Seeks US IPO, Targeting $14 Billion
SK Hynix files for US listing that source says could raise up to $14 billion https://t.co/QBH8wtKrug
Spending 42%+ on Housing Signals Financial Trouble
If you knowingly spend 42% on housing you’re worse with money. Should be an automatic pass.
Small‑Cap Earnings Rebound, Valuation Discount Sparks Appeal
Small-cap earnings growth is continuing to rebound, at the same time small-caps trade at a valuation discount to large-caps. Mike Wilson (@MorganStanley) explains why he likes small-cap stocks today. https://t.co/VmR4Wvtf8K https://t.co/DyiuOw4Nl4
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices; Fossil, Nuclear, Bioenergy Raise Them
Whereas more WindWaterSolar correlates with lower electricity prices worldwide, more fossil fuels, nuclear, and bioenergy each independently correlates with higher electricity prices.
Commodities Outpace S&P, Hinting Lower Stock High
did the rally of stocks $SPX vs. commodities since the '22 bottom roll over making a bigger picture lower high in favour of commodities? hmmm.... 👀 https://t.co/06LFvU59Fx
Insider Trade Exploits Trump’s Iran Pause Announcement
6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on iran strikes. markets move. someone knew. 16 minutes early. $580 million in contracts. the corruption is staggering.
BDC's Top Holding: SpaceX Stock at 30% Discount
Wait until they find out that a certain BDC’s largest position is SpaceX stock and its trading -30% below NAV
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Commodities Lead Market: Absolute and Dual Relative Uptrends
commodities $DJP vs. U.S $SPX & Canadian $EWC stocks... absolute uptrend + relative uptrends (x2) https://t.co/otOoKew2k3
War‑Driven Gas Prices Add $530 to Every Household Annually
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
Oman/Dubai Crude Plunges $45, Defying Brent Rally
CHART OF THE DAY: The idea was that Brent/WTI was going to catch up higher towards where Oman/Dubai crude was trading (>$150 a barrel) Instead, we are witnessing Oman/Dubai crude plunging >$45 a barrel in a single day to ~$110 a...
WIG30 Rises; Add Selective Cyclicals Amid FX Volatility
WIG30 +2.13% led by Basic Materials, Construction & Oil & Gas (Kruk, Budimex, KGHM). Oil slid; EUR/PLN firmer. Risk: FX & commodity volatility. Trade: add selective cyclicals on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
Gold and Miners Face Upside Gaps to Fill
"There are a couple gaps on the upside that need to be filled... that might have been a decent low for a period of time here in gold and the gold miners." 🎙️@GuyAdami | $GLD $GDX https://t.co/ZVXyArkxOD
Earn $400 Bonus with High‑Yield Savings & Checking
What's that number for you? 👇🏾 Whatever it is, the right account makes it easier to get there. My favorite High Yield Savings + Checking account combo just bumped their welcome bonus to $400 for new members. That's $400 closer on...
XLE RSI Near Record High Signals Possible Crash
$XLE - The 14 week RSI is currently at 84.76. The RSI's highest level ever was 84.86 on March 3, 2011. 4 weeks later XLE made a major top that led to a 33% crash over the next 6 months...
Chemicals Shine as Oil Markets Falter, Air Products Long
$APD Daily. While paper oil markets are under scrutiny, chemicals are some of the best charts in the market, another issue with Strait of Hormuz choked off. Air Products long setup https://t.co/1km1EcbjOH
Hormuz Closure Threatens World Economy, Outweighs US Strikes
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...