Future Gains Matter More than Past Performance
"Incremental returns on capital matter more than historical returns." Stop obsessing over past returns—they don’t pay your future. Smart investors focus on what a business can earn from here, not what it did yesterday.
Deep Means ITM, Far Means OTM
"Deep" is for ITM and "far" is for OTM. Thank you for your attention to this matter
New Real-Time Undercut & Rally Data Coming Soon
I'm currently testing some new Undercut & Rally Data Points for @Deepvue Key Levels & Moving Averages. You'll be able to screen for these in real time 💪 These will be available soon. https://t.co/1V4rtLbga3
Arab Light Crude Export Routes From Saudi West Ports
Tankers carrying Arab light crude from the Western ports of Saudi Arabia Mapf rom @Kpler https://t.co/FT5mVn08sk
2026 May Bring Median Stock Multiple Expansion,
Earlier this year, @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson said, “The surprise for 2026 could be that we see multiple expansion for the median stock in addition to strong earnings.” He explains why that hasn't changed. https://t.co/V7xbgUdxvA https://t.co/F0rrEGQbzw
Deutsche Bank Sees Market Bottom in 3 Weeks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is...
Dollar Reserve Growth Didn't Fund US Deficit
I spend a lot of time tracking dollar reserve growth. Probably more time than anyone at the Fund. And I absolutely believe that the surge in reserve growth contributed to the rise in imbalances before the...
Middle Eastern LNG Delayed to June, Oil Hoarding Risks Rise
Middle Eastern liquified natural gas (LNG) might not come to Europe till June, and why speculative hoarding of oil is a serious concern going forward, per top shipping/energy hedge fund in shipping and energy trading A must watch
AIM Hammer Reversal Signals Oversold Bounce Near 693
#AIM All Share pretty Hammer Reversal. Support 693 must hold. Resistance 732, 753, 779. RSI 17 extremely Oversold. Top Bollinger Band 795. Midpoint Line 750. Bottom Band 705.
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
FTSE100 Doji Signals Potential Turning Point at 9670
#FTSE100 Reversal Candle but really a Long Tails Doji; can act as a Turning Point. Support 9670 must hold. Resistance 10036, 10305, 10481. RSI 32 very low but not Oversold. Top Bollinger Band 10600. Midpoint Line 10221. Bottom Band 9855.
Nasdaq Doji Signals Bullish Turn if 21522 Holds
#Nasdaq Comp Doji Candle but up on Friday's Candle. Support 21522 must hold. Resistance 22189, 22569, 22906. RSI 39 not low but flicked up. Top Bollinger Band 22879. Midpoint Line 22251. Bottom Band 21616.
DAX Shows Up Candle Yet Remains Oversold
#DAX Up Candle but off day's High. Support 21863. Resistance 23179, 24000, 24366. RSI 30 Oversold. Top Bollinger Band 24326. Midpoint Line 23334. Bottom Band 22329.
Selective Long on Rig-Count Breakout Amid HMH IPO
HMH files $231.4M US IPO (10.5M sh @ $19–22). Macro: energy recovery lifts services. Key: drilling-equipment focus; led by J.P. Morgan/Piper Sandler/Evercore. Risks: cyclicality, oil-price volatility. Trade: selective long on rig-count breakout 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Brent Oil Faces Bearish Turn Near $112 Resistance
#BrentOil Comp big Down Candle and Bearish Engulfing. Resistance $112.1. Support $91.8, $84, $80, $69.2. Near MACD Bear Cross. RSI 63 dropped from Overbought. Top Bollinger Band $107.9. Midpoint Line $97.7. Bottom Band $87.4.
Stay Invested: Ignore Market Noise and Avoid Panic Withdrawals
The stock market is all over the place. Ignore the noise. And if you're a long term investor DEAR GOD please DO NOT take your money out.
Multiple Stocks Reach 52‑Week Highs Today
All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK HIGHS at some point today Clear Secure $YOU Akamai $AKAM ConocoPhillips $COP Digitalocean $DOCN EOG Resources $EOG TechnipFMC $FTI GE Vernova $GEV Halliburton $HAL Mastec $MTZ Murphy Oil $MUR New York Times $NYT Pembina $PBA Restaurant Brands $QSR Tenaris $TS Tower Semi $TSEM
BoE's MPC Scenario Guidance Will Become a Chaotic Puzzle
Scenario guidance is going to take some getting used to. Especially when the BoE gets hold of it, and each member of the MPC sets out their own different scenarios (3 scenarios each, 9 members) 🤣
S&P 500 Adds $650B Market Cap in One Day
MARKET RECAP 📈 What a wild day, the S&P 500 gained over $650 BILLION in market cap today, jumping 1.15%. Earlier in the day, the index was up over $1 TRILLION in market cap, up 2% 👀 What the heck is...
Gold Spikes Off 200‑day MA Amid Record Outflows
Gold Futs printed big wick energy off the 200-day MA + reclaim of Oct 2025 pivot high. This after Goldman reported $GLD experienced the largest monthly outflow since April 2013 -- capitulation? https://t.co/5qnVQMFUbq
New 2026 Rate Outlook Recalibrated From Hormuz to DC
Latest episode of our Trading Global Macro Podcast: From Hormuz to Washington DC: Recalibrating the 2026 Rate Outlook https://t.co/SWQ3mEPyhx
Midwest Real Estate Booms as Climate Haven Emerges
Is the Great Lakes region the ultimate Climate Haven? 🌎🌊🔥 With over $15T in real estate at risk from floods & fires, I explore why the Midwest is seeing a pricing boom. Low risk, low cost, high quality of...
Dow Holds 200‑Day Support Amid Volatility, Awaiting Trump Impact
Through today's (massive) volatility, the #Dow has held up the 200-day SMA as former support new resistance and maintained the descending channel of the past ~5 weeks. What will the Trump headlines bring for markets tomorrow? https://t.co/t3i7qUOG2I
MAGS Tests Gap, Opens Higher with 10‑EMA Support
$MAGS back test and fill of an old gap on Friday. Gap up today. The name has a small gap overhead along with the 10ema. See what tomorrow brings. https://t.co/XaedJw3adu
Oil Prices Slip Despite Months-Long Supply Recovery
By now, everyone knows it will take months for oil supplies to recover from this fiasco. And yet the oil price dropped pretty sharply on today's fake TACO. That seems significant to me...maybe, if we get a proper resolution, markets...
SPX Needs 40‑Week MA Break to Halt Downtrend
$SPX - The attempt to close above the 200 day MA has failed. Even if it closes above the 200 DMA it won't be enough to confirm a Friday bottom. Last year before the "Liberation Day" crash it closed above...
Turning META Bullish Flow Into Profitable Trade with SpotGamma
Check out how SpotGamma Contributor Doug Pless turned bullish options flow + key support in META into a winning trade, using: • Compass to generate the trade idea • Options Calculator to model the PnL • HIRO to time the execution Read the full...
Zoning Flexibility Key for Commercial‑to‑residential Conversions
A necessary, if not sufficient, condition for commercial to residential conversions is to provide maximum zoning flexibility, e.g. the exemptions on parking mandates provided for by AB 2097. I provide comment: https://t.co/O3dF26SHCm
Record Down Volume Followed by Record Up Volume
A day after the heaviest down volume in NYSE history, we get the heaviest up volume. Totally normal market. https://t.co/odNR7bgM5P
US Corn and Bean Flash Sales Return, First to Mexico
🇺🇸Monday's flash sale of U.S. corn was the first since March 4, and the bean sale was the first since Feb. 12. These also marked the first U.S. flash sales explicitly to Mexico since Dec. 17 (corn) and Jan. 13 (soybeans)....
FTSE100 Shows Long‑Tail Doji Hinting Hammer
Really a Long Tails Doji today on the #FTSE100 but there's a whiff of Hammer to it: https://t.co/liqjf0R22C
Europe and China Lead Global Imbalance Reassessment
The risk of an escalation in the Gulf seem reduced for at least a few days. So maybe there will be a bit of interest in my (somewhat novel) reevaluation of the relative contribution of Europe and China...
US Volatility Likely to Spike After Asian Surge
VIX at 26.78. India VIX up 18.5%. Kospi circuit breaker. Nikkei -5%. In my experience, the US VIX always plays catch-up to international volatility — it just takes a session or two. Asian vol is already in a significantly elevated regime. US equities...
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Renters relocating from California prefer Texas and Nevada. Renters relocating from New York prefer Florida and New Jersey. Interesting data from Apartment List. https://t.co/qJvXYBSwxJ
War Hopes Nudge Fed Futures Toward Tiny Cut
The hope of a short-end to the war on Iran sees the Fed funds futures market swing back to a (small chance) of a cut this year--2 bp--. It was around 7 bp of tightening before the weekend and 61...
Brent Crude Slides Below $100, Still Above Pre‑crisis Levels
CHART OF THE DAY: Brent crude oil has settled today below $100 a barrel (at $99.94 a barrel). As the chart shows, still way higher than pre-crisis levels, but also well below the peak reached during the early days of...
Gold Must Breach 9/20 EMA to Reverse Downtrend
Last 9 sessions $GLD -- short term needs to break that 9/20EMA to stop the downtrend https://t.co/Z6QvCzcnjJ
Mag 7 Stocks Hit Multi‑year Lows, Earnings Still Rising
While the leveraged crowd was getting margin called, here's what they left behind. $MSFT at 20x forward. Below the S&P 500. $META at 21x. $GOOG at 23x. Cheapest Mag 7 valuations in years. Earnings still growing 12.5%. The stocks got cheaper. The businesses didn't.
Build an All‑Weather Portfolio for Today’s Uncertain Markets
I am at a stage in life where my main objective is to pass along to others the principles I have learned over the last 60 years that have helped me and that I think can help others. I believe...
IEA's Record Release Fails to Dent $110 Oil Price
IEA released 400 million barrels. The largest emergency release in history. Oil is STILL above $110. $112.76 Brent right now. When the biggest intervention ever can't move price, the supply damage is real. $XLE https://t.co/dls2Gube4l
COF Reverses Higher, Gaps Up Above 10‑EMA
$COF daily chart reversal confirmed with gap up and back over 10ema daily. New here https://t.co/Jm4kNJiJ0G
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Iran Conflict, Expect Sharp Correction
Month two. No de-escalation. More troops. Kharg Island occupation being planned. In my experience, markets that price short conflicts and get long ones reprice quickly and painfully. Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's oil exports. The implicit assumption built into current market prices...
Markets Underprice Prolonged Conflict Amid Escalating War
War is entering month 2. No de-escalation signals. More troops being deployed. Kharg Island occupation being planned. Markets priced a short conflict. They haven't priced a long one. $SPY https://t.co/Vbt33yVHPd
Short‑Term Inflation Peaks as Oil Prices Stall
Non-consensus view here @fejau_inc @qthomp ... Feels like short term inflation expectations are likely making a top here. Obviously this has a lot to do with oil. If oil can't go any higher on the headlines now, time to pay attention.......
Bear Market Claims Declared at Market Bottom
When the headlines scream "BEAR MARKET CONFIRMED" right as the chart makes a perfect V-bottom hammer bullish reversal. Congratulations you just rang the exact bottom bell…
Prediction Markets Boost Ceasefire Odds to 55% by End‑April
While there is clear doubt around the market's confidence in the US-Iran having productive talks, the prediction markets have shown a jump (from 39% to 55%) in the probability of a ceasefire by April 30th. Still, that implies a further...
VIX and Oil Dip, but Volatility Remains High
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
CAT’s 50 DMA Magic: One Year, Can It Return?
$CAT - that 50 DMA has acted like magic for 12 months, will it do it again?
U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.