Sell High‑Basis Shares, Gift Low‑Basis for Tax‑Free Inheritance
Bob has a $5M brokerage account which he will pass down to his 2 kids A smart tax move for him is to sell the right lots It's best to sell stocks with high cost basis (= low capital gains tax) to live off for Bob, and pass down the low basis stocks (high capital gains) to his kids This is because his kids will receive a step up in basis and stocks can be sold tax free
S&P 500 Near Historic Bull Market, 17% Annual Gains
The S&P 500 is now up ~17% annually for the past 17 years We're less than 60% away from perhaps the greatest US bull market of all-time This is now a pantheon-level bull market https://t.co/GzJ85BvQrp https://t.co/2R97D7NOE2
Beta Rotation Hits 3.5‑year Low, Signaling Risk‑on
the #betarotation model has fallen to its lowest level in 3.5 years, measuring the differential in the 4-week rate of change between utilities $XLU and the S&P 500 $SPX... (it's a risk-on signal)... https://t.co/F6oLjIXEhW
S&P 1500 Overbought: Majority Above 10‑Day EMA
although the market hasn't come in, we're working off the overbought condition, here with the % stocks in the S&P 1500 > 10-day EMA... #marketbreadth $SPX https://t.co/R2JvU6u1Fp
Market Underestimates Oil Disruption, Companies Scramble, Blockade Benefits All
Yergin on oil price and his energy conference: - Market is underpricing oil disruption - Oil companies scrambling to figure out how to unlock supply (ie they think it’s not a quick fix) - Believes that both sides think the blockade of...
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 41, Highest Since 2000
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 41, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX Video: https://t.co/8sftndQio4
Equal‑weight S&P Stalls as Cap‑weight Hits Fresh High
As stock indices rise, fewer stocks are going along. This is why the S&P 500 equal-weight index $RSP hasn't made a new high for 40 days, while the cap-weight version $SPY just did. In 70 years, this is only the 3rd time...
S&P 500 Posts 15% YoY Earnings Rise, 13th Straight Quarter
With 28% of companies reported, S&P 500 1st quarter earnings are up 15% over the prior year, the 13th consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth. $SPX Video: https://t.co/FSc0CyC2dz
Self‑Storage Rentals Surge 48% Year‑Over‑Year
Self storage leasing is picking up for us: First 20 days of April 2026: 642 rentals Same period 2025: 435 rentals From 21.75 rentals per day last year to 32.1 this year. We are beginning to increase rents at a lot of our locations.
Wealthy Families Ditch 60/40 for Smarter Strategies
Most $5M+ portfolios look exactly like a $200K portfolio. Same 60/40. Same S&P 500 index. Same bond allocation nobody wants anymore. The wealthiest families don't actually invest like this. Here's how they actually do it. 🧵
Domino's Sees Growth Despite Macro Pressures, Doubts Rivals' Pace
"Significant macro and competitive pressures" starting in March, per Domino's on this earnings call. They say that the QSR pizza category grew. But they don't believe their competitors can keep up. $DPZ
NVDA Hits Critical $212 Level, Swing
$NVDA $212 is a big spot. Great swing long from a few weeks ago to manage https://t.co/MUCRnPDZ3u
Focus on a Few Quality Setups Amid Market Volatility
Everybody always asking where the opportunities are in this market… This week is one of those weeks where the market is literally handing you setups & the money 🤑 if you know what you’re looking at. Earnings are stacked & major companies...
Market Floor Sets up Fragile Upside After Stagnation
Fragile Upside 💫“Going Nowhere Fast” Is About To Change 💫The Floor Meets Crash Protection 💫Fragile Upside 💫Sell In May… https://t.co/k9g9uy0uak
NOW Selloff Turns Into Potential Buying Opportunity
Just read an interesting take on $NOW: The selloff’s gotten ugly enough to look like a buying opportunity. Valuation compressed, but the biz model is still rock-solid with GenAI tailwinds. Might be worth a look for patient investors. 📉👀 ServiceNow
Direct Mutual Funds Beat Regular Plans on Returns
Mutual Fund Tip You Shouldn’t Ignore 👇 Always choose Direct Plan, not Regular Plan. 🔹 Direct Plan – Pros ✅ Lower expense ratio ✅ No distributor commission ✅ Higher long-term returns (compounding works better) Cons: ❌ You manage investments yourself (needs basic knowledge) 🔹️ Regular Plan –...
Coupon UST Auctions Surge Ahead as Front‑End Pressure Eases
With FOMC on Wed, coupon UST auctions pulled ahead with double trouble today (2s and 5s). A bit of front-end pressure overnight that seems to be easing. Should go well with Warsh's nomination back on track
Oil Prices Set to Remain Above Pre‑Conflict Levels
SLB on their call Friday, echoed part of my positive case on oil and gas even after the war ends and the Strait fully reopens. On what they see from here and “how we expect the market to evolve as...
Semis Overbought; Expect 2‑3‑Month Dip, 9‑Month Rally
Semiconductor stocks have been red hot for several weeks but they are now over-extended. If history is any guide, near-term consolidation (spanning 2-3 months) is likely followed by strong gains over the next 9-10 months. $SOX
Top Factor #3 Drives 10X Stock Returns
The secret of hedge funds is revealed in a 41-page PDF: This paper analyzed 464 stocks that 10X-ed over a 24-year period. Here are the best factors that drive outperformance: (number 3 is the best 🧵)
Value Hunts Existing Mispricings; Growth Seeks Future Misvaluations
Aswath Damodaran on value investors vs growth investors "Value investors view their odds of finding market mistakes to be greater with assets-on-place, whereas growth investors feel that their odds are better in finding misvalued growth assets."
Europe Saw Record Negative EV Charging Prices This Weekend
Great times to charge your EV up in Europe over the past weekend, record negative prices (up to -0.48€/kWh) https://t.co/TDNVn5LQjN
Export Controls Spike US Gas, Favor International Oil Stocks
What if Trump reinstates oil export controls before the midterms? Gas prices are going vertical, the Iran War is unpopular and Republican midterm odds are falling. The surest way to lower prices at the pump is to keep more barrels at...
Miami Overtakes New York as Top Million‑Dollar Home Market
For the better part of a decade, New York consistently held the nation’s largest inventory of million-dollar homes. However, in a major geographic realignment, the Miami metro officially surpassed New York by the end of 2025" -NAHB
WeightWatchers Cuts $40M Debt, Saves $5M Interest
Weightwatchers to pay down $40m in debt. This is material for owner earnings as it should lead to annual interest expense savings of ~$5 million. $WW https://t.co/QVs2CKLPKy
EU’s Surplus Driven by Ireland’s Tax Tricks, Not Trade
Indeed, without Ireland (tax avoiding US Pharma MNEs) the EU customs surplus disappears. the EU should be thought of similarly to Japan; its current account surplus (ex Ireland) comes from investment income not trade 1/2
S&P 500 Reclaims 6500, Eyes 7074 Hold
$SPX reclaimed the moving averages around 6500, getting us back into more of a portfolio-type approach, and semis/Mag 7 have been full of opportunity. Now we’ll see if the 8-day holds (7074ish) to keep the active sequence intact, with last...
Domino's Misses Comps, Shares Slide 5%
Domino’s US comps 0.9%. International down 0.4%. Both lower than expected. Revenue up 3.5% EPS -4.6%. Shares down 5% premarket. $DPZ
Vol‑control Funds Auto‑buy as Volatility Falls, Fueling Rally
Update on mechanical buying: Also reminder: Vol-control funds, as long as realized vol continues to drop, can continue to auto buy & fuel this rally. Even if Iran War escalates, or a MAG5 name reporting this week disappoints, etc. That’s why I track...
Rising Inventories Boost China's Q1 GDP Despite Weak Demand
Many analysts have wondered how to reconcile China’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 with the relative weakness observed in growth in retail sales, fixed investment, and net exports. In my latest piece, I argue that a...
US Investor Flight Temporarily Fuels Dollar, Soon to Fade
Whenever there are bad shocks, US investors bring money back home, which temporarily boosts the Dollar. That happened in 2008, 2020, 2025 and is what's going on now. Current Dollar strength is temporary and will fade as soon as there's...
Unverified Tips Can Mislead: False Compass Data
Interesting side note on today's disappointing $CMPX results: Yesterday, I received a message on Signal from someone claiming to be a Compass employee. He gave me the purported tovecimig PFS and OS data. I didn't do anything with the supposedly material...
Historical Charts Ignore Vastly Different Economic Contexts
This is a great chart everyone is sharing. But keep in mind the farther you go back in history, the more every other imaginable variable changes. Economic and market conditions were very different in the late 1700s and early 1800s
High Rates Spark Buying Opportunity in Fast‑Growth REITs
Loading up on 3 REITs with rapid growth potential: Realty Income, VICI Properties, and Essential Properties. High rates created a buying opportunity for these yield + growth plays. 🏢💸 REITs
October's Investor Sentiment Hit an Extreme Low
Yet another indicator highlighting what an extreme point in investor sentiment last October really was...
Europe's Near‑Zero Growth Heightens Recession Risk Amid Energy Shock
Recession risk in Europe is rising. The 2022 energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bigger, but growth into that shock was higher as we were coming off the COVID rebound. Now growth is near zero and this shock...
Signal Shifts, Not Opinions, Drive Market Timing
In today's Early Look: "Why The Need To Balance All-Time #Quad2 Highs?" Bearish in March. Long in April. Not because I changed my mind. Because The Signal did. There's a difference — and it's the entire difference between a process and...
Overspending to Impress Leads to Financial Ruin
This been going on for a long time. I knew traders making $1m plus/yr foreclose on their brownstones & declare bankruptcy into the credit crisis. Spending to impress others or to fill a hole in your soul are recipes for financial...
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge While Europe Soars
CHART OF THE DAY: A favourite chart whenever the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia rises. Meanwhile, in West Texas the price goes deeply negative, reaching a record low of nearly -$10 per mBtu over the weekend (so...
Pick These Resilient Sectors for Nifty 35000
Which sector should you choose to position yourself for Nifty 35000 over the next two years? There are some obvious winners that will happen irrespective of ongoing events. #investing #sectors #portfolio https://t.co/VoyKBjWmDB
Build Systems, Turn Quick Gains Into Lasting Legacy
What's the point of getting rich if you can't stay rich? Building wealth is just the beginning. The real game? Setting up systems that transform quick gains into generational wealth. That's the difference between temporary success and lasting legacy.
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Veradermics' Hair Loss Drug Clears Late-Stage Trial
Ok, here we go... $MANE Veradermics' hair loss drug succeeds in late-stage trial. A report from @ADeAngelis_bio https://t.co/jtSB36sPGO
AI Magnificent Seven Propel S&P; without Them Market Falls
“Exclude the AI version of the Magnificent Seven stocks—Broadcom alongside Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia—and the market value of the S&P is actually down. Put another way, these seven are lifting the entire market.” WSJ https://t.co/Cdztzsv5jH
Hormuz Closure Sparks California Energy Crunch
The fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching California, triggering a serious energy crunch. Full Newsletter: #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/wXUuhw5ng7
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
Gold‑Crude Divergence at 44: Cue for Copper, Stocks
Gold's Breakdown vs. Crude May Guide Copper, Stocks Volatility in gold and crude oil has never surged at a similar pace as in 2026 without spilling into the stock market, with implications for most markets. My graphic depicts crude's price pump...
Tech Index Hits Highest Close Since Jan 2025
Saham tech Bursa seeing a “face ripper” rally. Tech Index at highest close since Jan 2025. INARI pun dah joined the party. Enjoy.
S&P Earnings Surge, Margins Hit Record, Stocks Cheaper
12-month S&P 500 earnings estimates are up an incredible 10% YTD, with 6.5% coming since the war started. Also, profit margins hit a new high of 15.2%. Lastly, stocks are up more than 5% YTD (total return), but they are...
Plan Ahead for Earnings Week: Less Is More
Busy earnings & Fed week. Have a plan going in so you don’t have to be reactive. Less is way more.