U.S. Backstop Rescues Nations Facing Currency Crises
It's amazing what getting backstopped by the U.S. can do for a nation with a currency crisis.
ABT Stock Slides, Yet 54-Year Dividend Streak Persists
If you're looking for a bargain, shares of ABT have been drifting downward. ABT has raised its dividend every year for the last 54 years in a row.
Corporate Housing Investment Ends as Cap Rates Match Bonds
The era of corporate investment in the U.S. Housing Market is ending - potentially forever. And not just because of the investor bans. But because of the relationship of interest rates to Cap Rates, otherwise known as investor returns. From 2008-2022,...
WTI Poised for Biggest Drop Yet, Still
Depending on where the WTI crude oil front month closes the day, we are looking at either the biggest single-day drop since Jun 23, 2025 or Mar 9, 2022. Either way...massive day...and yet still over 36% higher than the 200-day...
Treasury Futures Surge: 3.5M Contracts Traded
Very Big Volume in Treasury Complex. Dimes (UST Classic 10 Yr Note Futures) have traded over 3.5 Million Contracts as of 1:40 pm EST.
Inverse QQQ Defies 10‑Day MA Bounce Rule
They say strong stocks bounce off their 10-day MA, but this one is an inverse ETF, $QQQ no less. https://t.co/NqjLUXB5iI
VIX Candle Range Hits Highest Since Liberation Day
Like most other risk-oriented assets today, the $VIX volatility index has seen some extreme volatility itself. The range of today's VIX candle is ~41% of current spot...matches highest since Liberation day volatility last year https://t.co/CuNNwltgja
Strong Dollar, High Oil Trigger Emerging Market Crisis
India rupee: 94/USD. Rs 80,000 crore of foreign capital pulled from India in March alone. DXY near 100. Oil at $112. That combination is an emerging market wrecking ball. Few understand this. https://t.co/urDfdNX6YF
Interest Rate Hikes Pose Bigger Threat Than Oil Prices
"We're focused on and worried about the rise in oil prices, but it's the rise in interest rates that can actually have a broader negative impact on the global economy..." 🎙️ @pboockvar, CIO @onepointbfg https://t.co/JjvKGO6Kfq
Key Adviser Strategies: Goal Setting, Tax Planning, Satisfaction
🆕 Adviser links: helping clients set goals, the impact of tax planning in retirement, and four components of senior adviser satisfaction. https://t.co/fA8eqSMu5q image: https://t.co/uYN309n8aN https://t.co/xDdI8PtgNe
Housing Demand Now Driven by Prices, Not Rates
Mortgage rates have spiked in the last 3 weeks. But it won't matter for the housing market. Mortgage rates stopped being the driver of demand 3-4 years ago. Whether mortgage rates are 6.5%, or 6.0%, makes no categorical difference on demand right now. The...
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
Markets Turn Defensive as S&P Breaks 200‑Day Trend
S&P 500: four straight weekly losses. 200-day MA: decisively broken. Fed: discussing rate hikes. Gold: worst crash since 2011. Oil: above $110. 3 of 4 intermarket signals say defense. The one that doesn't? It's the least convincing of the four. https://t.co/zTqF9056g8
Discipline Beats IQ in Value Investing
Warren Buffett’s approach is simple: stay rational when others aren’t. Value investing is less about IQ and more about temperament, patience, and consistency in the stock market. Most investors lose money not because they lack intelligence, but because they lack discipline.
1990 Fed Warned of Dollar Risk After Kuwait Invasion
funny how things change. This is how Fed staff assessed the risks to dollar after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 https://t.co/XydwiGbPI5
Fed Reacts Differently to Oil Price Shocks
I used Claude to draw a chart that captures how I see the Fed's asymmetric reaction function towards oil. https://t.co/q9WcR7aCNC
Undervalued Gems:
Tim Travis @TimTravisValue on: * Blue Owl $OWL and $OBDC: Hidden Value in Private Credit Stocks? $MSDL * Why Asset Managers Like Blackstone, $KKR, and Blue Owl Are So Cheap * Energy Stocks Rally: $DVN, $OXY, and $EPD Breakdown * Assured Guaranty $AGO:...
Rally Fades as Yields, Oil Surge, VIX Rises
The rally is fading fast. SPX up just 1.1% as yields and oil jump... VIX trying to go positive https://t.co/cD8Y5HTyQm
Buy Signal Revealed: Top Mining Stocks to Purchase Now
A special Alert in Paydirt Prospector... -The #1 technical signal that compels us to buy right now -Historical corrections vs current -The specific stocks I’m buying -The mining stocks Daniel Flynn is buying right now. Join us for this important alert: https://t.co/T9ocaStac9
Oracle’s $153 Price Offers 35% Safety Margin
Full Deep Dive Thesis: Is ORCL a BUY at $153? Oracle at $153: Why Wall Street’s $50B CapEx & Debt Panic Just Created a Rare 35% Margin of Safety on a $553 Billion Contracted AI Backlog Recent Institutional Rating Upgrades: • JP Morgan...
Watching TXN Gap Up; Close Above 10‑EMA Desired
$TXN daily watching to see if today's confirming gap up holds. A close over the 10ema would be best. https://t.co/6zcrO08UBO
Markets Accept Persistent Middle East Conflict If Hormuz Flows
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
Spot VIX Leads Futures, Market Stuck in Backwardation
OK. What's wrong with this picture? 1. Spot VIX still above all of the VX futures. 2. Futures remain very flat and M1 > M2 > M3 (backward). #BetterButNotBullish https://t.co/dR28SgxMLq
Fade 8‑MA Bounces After SPY Bear Cross at 690
$SPY - Sound like a broken record, but really comes down to simplicity, 8/21 bear cross back at 690, and ever since you just fade the falling 8-MA bounces
ORB Strategy: Consistent Edge Amid Market Chaos
Markets are WILD right now 🔥 Iran war? Pause? Nobody knows. But here's what I DO know... The only edge that's working consistently right now is the ORB strategy. When markets run the highs or the lows = high confidence trade every...
Precious Metals Rally, Juniors Lead; Stay Ready
Very encouraging move in precious metals off the lows. Silver and copper are leading, with juniors outperforming seniors and explorers showing strong upside today. That said — the day and week are far from over. After leaning optimistic recently, some caution is warranted...
US‑China Trade War Threatens 2025 Economy; Cooperation Needed
NEW: The US and China put parts of the global economy at risk in 2025 through their trade war over critical minerals & technology. Here I explore a novel path for Washington and Beijing to 'cooperate' over *HOW* they reduce their...
Acid Prices Surge as Hormuz Sulfur Supply Tightens
Kamoa-Kakula's #copper smelter is currently producing 1,600 tonnes of high-strength sulphuric acid per day. We are currently selling this acid for between $470/t and $500/t to local mining operations in the DRC Copperbelt that critically need the acid to leach...
Oil Prices Retreat to Reaction Lows, Gasoline Dips
Oil sinking back toward those reaction lows... WTI $87 Brent $99 Gasoline futures down 36 cents https://t.co/68SjGUaFW0
Open Text Stock Uncertain Amid AI Integration Hurdles
Open Text stock faces uncertainty amid #AI integration challenges and enterprise software slowdown. (Ad Hoc News) #Technology #Stocks #Valuations #JVGpost https://t.co/XC8bWoPbBr https://t.co/qLf54XTRUB
CAPE Still Predicts Long‑Term Returns, New Study Shows
CAPE has long been a cornerstone of long-horizon return forecasting. High valuations imply lower future returns. Low valuations imply higher future returns. Critics argue that its predictive power has faded. This paper pushes back. by @ebasilico https://t.co/GagZA56sWf https://t.co/3Zd7kxgT9K
EA's $15B Debt Oversubscribed, $25B Orders Signal Open Markets
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
Closed SPY Hedge, Added April Put Butterfly
sold to close remaining $SPY March 31 hedge and added Apr 2 Exp 650/634/620 bw put flys
QQQ Flat Between 20‑50 Weekly SMA Amid Political Chaos
All this drama and $QQQ still stuck between this range between 20 and 50sma weekly. More chaos politically the more leaning technically. https://t.co/cRWdMHiEh5
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Unclear US War Goals Fuel Market Volatility
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
Gulf Shut‑ins Could Cut 200 M Barrels in First Month
Current Gulf production shut ins alone, if held at current levels through end-March, will result in roughly 200 million barrels of crude *not being produced* over the first ~30 days of the Iran War Not simply displaced supply, but barrels that...
EURUSD Continues Upward After Early Morning Spike
EURUSD has really been building on the initial spike higher shortly after 7am ET https://t.co/JXZcl7G8Dr
Nifty Poised for Upside Breakout Above 22,800
Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow 24 March 2026 By Rohit Srivastava | Indiacharts Nifty closed the session at the critical lower boundary of its ongoing falling channel. Holding this bottom support level sets the stage for a potential upside breakout attempt....
Trump’s Self‑negotiation Lost; China Won 2025 Standoff
At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the...
XLE Soars 31.8% as Middle East Energy Hits Hard
IEA confirmed it. 40+ Middle East energy assets severely damaged. Not 1. Not 5. Forty. $XLE is the only S&P sector positive since war began. +31.8% YTD. Everyone else is still pretending this is temporary. https://t.co/5G2vuSlSjh
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Iran War Hits Potential Inflection Point, Analyst Says
Top market watcher on why this may be a real inflection point in the Iran war https://t.co/mltKPnPYb8 thanks from @AcadSecurities @MorganLBrennan for having us on! The segment, despite being before the 5 day pause post, hasn't aged too badly :)
Earn Points on Purchases to Boost Profitability by 1%
“If a #smallbiz spends 30% to 50% of sales on purchases, and 1/2 those purchases can earn you points, and, on average, you earn 2% value on those points, you'll increase your businesses profitability by one percentage point.” ¬Credit Card...
CMG Breaks $34.33, Eyeing
$CMG a move and hold over 34.33 the next level I am watching if price wants higher.
Strong Opening
82% upside day at 10:30. Expected it to be higher than that after such a strong opening. UVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per https://t.co/iX5L1DJIjD. See https://t.co/7TpOm9eA5A for explanation.
Dow Rebounds to 200‑day SMA Amid US‑Iran Talks
I guess we are taking the President's remarks of 'productive' talks between the US and Iran at face value and not just a fear of hitting the 48 hour deadline and having to escalate with a market reaction... Dow has rebound...
Markets Pause, Rally Mirrors Thursday After Friday Sell‑off
Markets not budging from initial move. Almost like they sold off Friday 'just in case' and now the rally is just resetting back to Thursday