Fundamentals Over Charts: Scale In on Pullbacks
I want you all to know something Chart technicals matter ONLY to day traders When you learn the fundamentals and data and financials and economics and seasonality? (Knock on wood) but you could go blind… and if someone says “hey the S&P has pulled back 5-10% in Feb-April” You would know to scale in and hold through summer with what we teach inside TBL Looking at candles is just a bonus 5-10% pullbacks on ETFs (scale in) 20-40% pullbacks on great companies (scale in) Your welcome 🫱🏾🫲🏻
Oil Prices Have Peaked, Shock Explained
People had lots of questions about the oil shock after this weekend's podcast with @paulkrugman, including on all the different types of oil and which one is most important. I've been pounding the table that oil prices have peaked, so...
SPX Futures Surge Post‑Trump, Watch 6623‑6754 Resistance
The morning changed pretty fast — $SPX futures went from -45 to +130 handles after Trump said the last 48 hours of talks were very productive. There should be some resistance near 6623ish, and 6754 is the major if this...
Qatar Outage Boosts Russia's LNG Sales to Vietnam
The outage at the world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar is apparently benefiting Russia 🇷🇺 ⚠️ Russia’s largest LNG producer Novatek has signed a preliminary deal to supply Vietnam, Tass reported citing CEO Mikhelson (Vietnam is struggling to buy LNG...
Indices Outpace Stocks in Pre‑market Amid Ceasefire
We have a little ceasefire for the next five days, but it seems like the indices have moved a lot more than individual stocks pre-market.
Cashing Out High, Targeting Beaten‑Down US Junior Silver
During VRIC and Bmo it was very clear we needed a healthy shakeout. Glad i had one position get bought out for cash near the top. So I’ll be able to redeploy into beaten down junior silver miners...
SPY Hits AVWAP Low; Barron Trump Touted Trillionaire
$SPY AVWAP off 2025 low...unreal right where TACO happened Barron Trump going to be a trillionaire https://t.co/DMZg9WZPEh
High Yields Fuel Doubt Over Trump's Iran Statement
4.5% bond yields are too much for Bessent so he probably drafted the Trump statement about Iran talks. Irant not buying it https://t.co/I8PHct99Kf
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Delays Iran Strikes
Oil and energy commodities tumble after Trump postpones U.S. strikes against Iran energy infrastructure for five days: CNBC https://t.co/nO7poYHdmx
SPY Spikes on Trump's 'Productive' US‑Iran Talks
$SPY printed a Sky Scraper Candle after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/1sxKxOeC2e
Gold and Silver Discount Window Nearing End, Bullish Reversal Ahead
Bullish reversal coming…discount window in gold and silver going to come to an end soon. https://t.co/Yd9oNzf6ao
WTI May Top Near $120 by 2026, Echoing 2008
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
Trump’s Iran Comments Send Brent Down $16
An off ramp? A TACO? Another bait and switch? Brent cratered ~$16/bbl on Trump’s latest post talking about “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. https://t.co/6dfE8zEiRE
Buy the Dip at Oversold Levels, Not Exact Bottom
This meme never gets old. You never know the exact bottom — and it’s not worth having the hubris to think you do. I’ll keep scaling in at what I see as cheap, historically oversold levels. No need to follow my approach —...
2026 Commodity Pump‑Then‑Dump May Hit WTI Crude
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...
Higher Rates Worsen, Not Fix, Credit Problems
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Oil Price Spikes Drive Food Price Hikes
This one is intuitive and goes without saying. But let’s say it anyway; “When oil spikes, food prices tend to follow” Do you know why?
Dow Futures Surge 1,200 Points After Trump's Iran Talks Claim
Dow futures jump 1,200 points after Trump says U.S. and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks: CNBC https://t.co/ayLrxCx0Ot
Oil Volatility Shifts: From Demand Collapse to Supply Risk
Both the COVID-19 oil shock and the current Middle East oil shock (has) caused big moves in oil prices (Volatility), but for opposite reasons though. In 2020, demand absolutely collapsed because nobody was using or wanted as much oil as...
Quantify Patterns, Track Trades, Prove Edge with Expectancy
To turn price action patterns into math (as taught in my book Trading is Math): 1. Codify each pattern as strict IF–THEN rules Example: Moving average crossover setup → IF price > EMA, tight consolidation (<2% range), volume contraction, then breakout →...
US Begins NAFTA Talks, Leaves Canada Out
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
Hedge Funds Buy 120 BCF Gas, Still Below Historic Levels
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 120 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major gas futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 17....
Sell Imbalance Hits 2022 Levels, Hedging Costs Soar
From GS on Flows (BBG): - Biggest sell imbalance since 2022 (Friday) - Stresses no longer “ignored” - “can start talking at what innings we’re in because the game has finally started” - Hedging is so expensive that to break even, would need indexes...
Iranian Oil Routes to China via SWIFT Workarounds
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
Household Real Estate Value Drops to $47.9 T
"The market value of household real estate assets fell for the second consecutive quarter to $47.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025" -NAHB
Metals Surge, Stocks Modest; Bonds Fall
1-year % change: silver +105% gold +50.3% oil +44% S&P 500 $SPX +14.9% bonds $AGG -0.2% long bonds $TLT -5.9%
UK Gilts Suffer Worst Month Since Truss Amid Oil Spike
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
Gold's Return to 200‑DMA Signals Discount Buying Window
A discount buying window in gold as price returns to 200 dma. Remember the technical rule made famous by joe Granville that the first pullback to 200 dma is a secondary buying opportunity. https://t.co/uaFLr7qTwD
Fed May Need Emergency 0.5% Rate Cut Amid Credit Slowdown
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
Markets Expect Four BOE Quarter‑Point Rate Hikes by 2026
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
QQQ Seeks Pivot Low Amid Red Sea
$qqq lost so many levels while names broke down prior to last weeks move. We’ll see if if in a sea of red some names can go green. Perhaps the $qqq give a pivot low to use in the first...
SPY Slides, Eyes 644‑645 Support Amid Red Momentum
Mostly red arrows around the World Lots of spots to switch gears as the $spy lost the 8/21/50/100/200 day. $spx futures-42. Simplify today like last week. Does the $spy reclaim $644-$645 area to relieve pressure. Or Do we do...
Long-Term Copper Bull, Short-Term Bear: 2008 Lessons
OK, let’s get this out in the open so we all know where we stand. I’m a long-term #copper bull. But I’m a short-term copper bear. And this is why. I was both a long-term and short-term copper bull in 2008 –...
US Gas Stable, Europe Volatile: One Price Chaos
Compare and contrast US Natural Gas prices to European TTF Natural Gas prices. US prices have barely moved. What was that about there only being one international price for gas 👀 This is what madness looks like with respect to energy policy...
US Stocks Barely Reflect War Risks, S&P Down 6%
The notion US stocks have yet to price in a dramatic war escalation makes sense. The S&P 500’s down just 6% from the peak. We’ve seen mediocre earnings, eco reports trigger deeper declines than the one we have currently https://t.co/esTq56VbOq
ADNOC Cuts LNG Output as Hormuz Closure Tightens Gas Market
Adnoc is now reducing LNG production because Strait of Hormuz is shut, tightening the global gas market 🇦🇪 ⚠️ Adnoc has “made temporary operational adjustments to production of Liquefied Natural Gas” They’re working with customers to fulfill commitments “wherever possible” https://t.co/dLBNlgiLER
Gold Bull Market Doesn't Boost Chinese Jewelry Retailer
You would’ve thought that a Chinese retailer of gold jewelry should do well in a gold bull market. But no. https://t.co/I5hGQN1jn2
Don't Let Savings Shrink—Invest to Beat Inflation
Stop letting your savings sit there slowly losing value while you figure out the perfect move. Saving is the first step. But money sitting in a regular bank account is not resting, it is shrinking. Inflation is eating it daily &...
Current Energy Shock Dwarfs 1970s Crises
I don’t think we have understood yet how serious this crisis is. IEA’s Fatih Birol: ~5 mb/d lost in each of the 1970s oil shocks; ~75 bcm gas after Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now: ~11 mb/d oil and ~140 bcm gas disrupted. https://t.co/6G8leH3lHR https://t.co/ESkY9LyQjx
Factory‑Built Homes Could Reverse Rising Homebuyer Age
In 2010, the median U.S. homebuyer was 39. Today, it’s 59. Home prices have doubled in a decade, and construction productivity has fallen. Sweden builds 45% of single-family homes in factories, year-round, cutting costs and build time. If we built...
4‑Hour Candle Strategy: Enter FVG After Confirmation
4 Hour Candle Setup📊 For Bullish:Mark 4 hour green candle📊 For Bullish: than go to 15 Min. 📊 Enter in the FVG. 📊 Complete 4 Hour Setup📊 Same Setup for Selling 📊
PBoC Governor Says Global Deficits Unchanged in 40 Years
1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the...
Dollar Weakness Stalls Rally, Triggers Gold Collapse
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
Iranian Rial Gains 12% Amid Early War Turmoil
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
Waha Gas Prices Plunge to Near -$10 per MMBtu
"Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10." https://t.co/camxY0zKrz
Miami's Rent Growth Turns Negative Amid Mass Exodus
Large market with the worst single-family rent growth in the U.S. entering 2026? Miami Wouldn't have guessed that from the headlines about Zuckerberg and Palantir. While billionaires are moving in, local residents are moving out. Rents are up 50% in Miami from...
Gold’s 22% Drop Shows Narrative Beats Charts
Gold Just Crashed 22% from ATH — Official Bear Market Entered? From its all-time high of $5,608.35 straight down to $4,352.90 today. That’s a clean 22% bloodbath. Technically? The bull run is dead. Bear market confirmed? But here’s the edge 99% of investors miss: Charts...
Rising Fertilizer Costs Threaten Food Budgets for 500 M
Lots of emphasis on rising fertilizer prices in the US but food is a small part of budgets in the developed world. It's around 40% of the CPI basket in Bangladesh, Thailand, Ghana and Nigeria. That's 500 MILLION people. https://t.co/g5gtlNlsWN...
Current Market Patterns Mirror 1929, 2000 Crashes
Compare and contrast Often what happens after we see a: 1. Sustained bull trend 2. Spike down after trend 3. Rising wedge retest of top Just pointing it out Don't shoot the messenger Gold now, NASDAQ 2000, DJIA 1929 https://t.co/fFyn50f1Dt
Gulf Oil Output Could Fall 6.5 MMbpd in March
If held flat at current shut-in levels of around 9 MMbpd, Gulf crude oil production would be down by ~6.5 million on the month in March. Balance math gets much uglier when these run for a full month or more—and things...