Middle East Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Distribution Networks
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution of fuel.." https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Fed's Higher Inflation Forecast Meets Stubborn Oil Shock
Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. With Brent above $113 and the Strait of Hormuz shut, good luck hitting even that number. Oil shocks don't resolve in a quarter. Ask anyone who traded through 1973. https://t.co/ILkHjGA6m2
Markets Lose Buyers as S&P Slides Below 200‑Day
The S&P 500 just closed below its 200-day moving average for the second straight session — lowest since November. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields Friday, sending oil back toward $100 and triggering the fourth consecutive losing week...
Small‑cap Stocks Outpace Mega‑cap Tech Amid Oil Shock
$IWM is up 0.12% YTD while $QQQ is down 3.16%. Small caps quietly outperforming mega-cap tech during an oil shock. Nobody's talking about it. That's exactly why it matters. https://t.co/uJRKl9XT9N
AI's Power Hunger Drives 11% Pick‑and‑Shovel Returns
AI doesn't run on optimism. It runs on electricity — 183 TWh in 2024, projected to hit 426 TWh by 2030. Someone has to build and operate the pipelines, power plants, and transmission lines feeding every data center. This week's High Yield Spotlight:...
Frequent Monitoring of Rising Assets Signals Need to Trim
And if you find yourself looking often while it is going up then prolly time to trim some.
Economic Landscape Shifting Dramatically Amid Inflation, Rates, and Markets
Current situation: 1. US inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, 3-year high 2. The Russell 2000 is officially in a technical correction 3. US gas prices have risen nearly +45% in four months 4. Interest rate futures are now pricing-in potential rate HIKES 5. Gold...
Gold Drops Despite Strong Technicals; Contrarian Wins
Unreal amount of why is gold down posts gold had more than doubled an was 100% above its 200 wma (highest since the 70's). Selling the news is not some big mystery. Keep in mind the largest returns came from...
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
All Markets Plunge, Crypto Crashes Below All‑Time Highs
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -7% Google: -14% Apple: -14% Nvidia: -19% Gold: -20% Amazon: -21% Meta: -25% Tesla: -26% Palantir: -28% Microsoft: -31% Bitcoin: -44% Silver: -45% Ethereum: -57% MicroStrategy: -75% Fartcoin: -92% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
VIX 23.5 Signals Dangerous Market Uncertainty
$VIX at 23.5. Not panic. Not complacency. The ugly in-between where nobody knows what to do. Most dangerous market condition there is. https://t.co/c8of6UQSir
Time‑Based S&P Bottom Near; Money Flow Signals Reversal
#SPX: A bottom is near in terms of Time, not necessarily in terms of Price. Money Flow is nearing the 2018, 2022, and 2025 lows and has already dropped below the 2020 levels. While the %B is also oversold. After...
Profitability Remains Sole Unchanged S&P 500 Criterion
"Changes to index criteria are frequently proposed and often adopted. Since 2015, S&P has made over 20 updates to the S&P 500 index methodology, including increasing the minimum seasoning requirement in 2017 and reducing the minimum float requirement in 2019....
Economy Strong, Energy Crisis Holds Back Growth
S&P 500 earnings growing +13%. Tax refunds running 17% higher YoY. Oil up 40% since the war started. The economy is fine. Energy is the problem. And the Fed can't drill its way out of this. https://t.co/q0FLlog6k2
Use Asian Session Zones to Time Nasdaq, Gold Entries
Nasdaq and gold do not move the same in every session. The Asia session is usually slower and range bound. This is where supply and demand zones form and liquidity builds. Those levels matter. When London and New York open, price often reacts...
Avoid General Obligation Municipals in CA, IL, NY
People ask about muni’s and I typically don’t have much to say. But now, looking at the deficits caused by absurd spending, and tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, I can say avoid all General Obligation muni’s in California, Illinois &...
Investing’s Toughest Step: What You Do After Choosing
Most people think the big decision in investing is which fund to choose. Where to put the money. Which strategy is best. I get it, because that's where all the energy goes at the start. But after doing this for years,...
Tech Giants Face 20‑57% Pullbacks From 52‑Week Peaks
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs... $NVDA -19% $GOOGL -14% $MSFT -31% $AAPL -14% $AMZN -21% $META -25% $TSLA -26% $AVGO -25% $ORCL -57% $NFLX -32% $AMD -25% $PLTR -27% @finviz_com https://t.co/5XhlWNrFKR
TACO Plans Falter Without Open Hormuz, Market Pressure
Third attempt at TACO this week (one early in the week by Trump, one Thursday by Netanyahu - was that a NACHO?) Both of those failed because Iran and the bond market both get a say. This TACO attempt and all...
Weekly Demand up YoY Even as Rates Fall
As crazy as this sounds, the weekly demand with our tracker data is still positive YoY, just remember that rates are still lower YoY; more on this with our weekend tracker. 🫡
United Trims 5% Capacity as Oil Hits $175 per Barrel
United Airlines planning for oil to reach record $175/barrel, cutting 5% capacity https://t.co/SC3sCiQctU (via TAC/Intel)
Middle East Oil On
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
Housing Demand Hinges on Prices, Not Mortgage Rates
The thing everyone gets wrong in the housing market is they think it's about mortgage rates. When it's actually about prices. Buyer demand is at record lows because prices (inflation-adjusted) are at record highs. No one wants to buy a house they know...
Exited Bridgewater All Weather Before 3% Plunge
I got us out of this Bridgewater 'All Weather' $ALLW before it got smoked today. Down -3.1% looked more like All Clouds, No Umbrella. @dsaleminvestor @HedgeyeRJM https://t.co/6vDFG1w84h
US Loans 45M Barrels, Far Below 86M Offer
US loans ~45 millions barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — significantly fewer barrels than the 86 million the government offered as part of the SPR “exchange” first tranche.
SMH Nears Critical $374 Threshold Amid Tech Weakness
$SMH (VanEck Semi ETF) in focus as many parts of Tech have begun to wobble a bit while QQQ just undercut last Nov lows. @IBDinvestors @marketsurge While still in consolidation here, any weekly close under $374 would be problematic...
Long MA Streaks End, but Returns Stay Steady
Since 1950, there have been 30 other times the S&P 500 was above it's 200-day MA for more than 200 days. Is it a bad thing when these long streaks end? Not really, as future returns appear to be about normal....
Rising Yields and Hawkish Fed Trigger Market Capitulation Risk
Markets rolled over this week as yields surged, the Fed stayed hawkish, and macro pressure built across the board. We break down the technical damage, what’s driving the risk-off move, and why a capitulation event could be next. $SPY $QQQ...
AUDUSD Net Longs Reach Highest Level Since 2017
Another remarkable change in net-speculative positioning comes from AUDUSD. A further nudge in the net long positioning, pushes futures spec interest to the heaviest long since October 2017. A carry drive as rate forecasts pick up https://t.co/sJ0Xl2KxxD
EURUSD Futures Net Long Plummets Record 84K Contracts
In case you missed it, net speculative futures positioning behind $EURUSD posted its biggest weekly 'net drop' on record - an 84K contract drop in the net long. That's a strong move away from the anti-dollar pressure over the past...
S&P Below 200‑Day MA Signals Historically Negative Returns
After 214 trading days, the S&P 500 closed beneath it's 200-day MA this week. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 closes above this trendline the annualized return is 21.1%. When it closes beneath? -22.2%. Proving once again that bad things tend to...
Broad After-Hours Rally Lifts Major ETFs
After-hours: $SPY +1.0% $QQQ +0.9% $RSP +0.9% $IWM +1.7% $EFA +1.3% $EEM +1.8% $TLT +0.5% $IBIT +1.0% @finviz_com https://t.co/H1dLfRam9i
Qamar Energy CEO Declares Oil Crisis Unprecedented
Oil crisis: 'nothing comes close to this', says Qamar Energy CEO https://t.co/tC2I61KQyK via @mattfrei @QamarEnergy
Wealth Grows When Compounders Need Little Capital
"The best compounders require minimal external capital to grow." The best investments don’t need constant fuel to grow. Great compounders scale with minimal external capital — that’s where real wealth is built.
Only One US Home Price Crash Despite Many Recessions
We have experienced many recessions since WWII, but only one nationwide home price crash and foreclosure crisis, household debt leverage ratio was much higher back then. https://t.co/VjgmPgQgRv
Copper Slump vs Oil Surge Signals Weak Demand
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
CFTC Data Shows USD as Preferred Iran Hedge
CFTC positioning: USD as Iran hedge Chart: dollar weighted exposure in million dollars versus number of non-commercial participants (speculators) large dot: most recent small dots: last year grey dots: last 10 years green: long red: short src: BBG, Merk https://t.co/LDLtec7oXv
Missed 0DTE Move, Eyes Strong Week Ahead
Nice $SPY $NVDA scoops @IUTraders Sucks ... $USO took until AHs was super ready faded into close but closed out at bell. Been clean trader all week would have been a nice finish into weeks end. Tad bit frustrating cuz I...
SoH Closure Slashes GDP, Boosts Oil Prices
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
AAII Bullish Sentiment Hits 7‑week Low, Bears Surge
AAII bulls have been lower than the week before for a record tying 7 weeks in a row. Good chance this continues next week. Lowest bulls since September and highest bears since May. https://t.co/rUf45a3UYv
Scanner Caught AXTI Momentum Weeks Before Move
Why AXTI? Our scanner flagged momentum WEEKS before the move. 🔎📈 Volume spike + tightening range + multi-timeframe confirmation = setup we trust. We got in early, managed risk, and let the trend run. Want the scan rules? Drop a comment or...
Core Oil Earnings Track Oil Price Fluctuations
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
All Weather Portfolio Beats Expected Returns, Drawdown On Target
All Weather portfolio update. Current drawdown -8.35% which is within the expected return/risk profile. CAGR since release running at +24.2%, which is above the expected return profile. #next1000trades https://t.co/Bf8eenZ9Am
Put Premiums Deliver 40% Annual Returns
Some thoughts today on the week ahead in the market. Meanwhile, one of the things I didn't get to mention is that elevated premium on SLB and WFRD puts is creating 3–4% monthly yield, or close to annualized 40% returns,...
Oil Risks Surge as Spot Prices Rise, Volatility Falls
Oil riskies firmed a lot to the put and today spot up, vol down day https://t.co/yyPo6cUfXq
Up 1000bps YTD vs SPX, Ready for Longs and Shorts
Welcome to those joined https://t.co/zHQ4Za0hoi today using the discount “hft”. We are in a good position up YTD 1000bps vs $SPX to maneuver with both longs and shorts
S&P 500 Hits Bottom 15 Days After Geopolitical Shock
Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins DB. @augurinfinity @soberlook https://t.co/j2yKbwkAig https://t.co/9G1EyxjbxR
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Surge to Highest Since July
Yields on the two-year Treasury note are up 0.516 pp since Feb. 27, the day before strikes on Iran, to 3.893%. That’s the highest close since July. The gain over the last three weeks is the largest since May 2023 (the...
USD/CHF Bulls Stalled at Critical Resistance Level
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Rejected at Key Resistance https://t.co/rLrumlAN5T $USDCHF Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/pcvuoorqWD