Mag 7 Holds; Break Lows Threaten Broader Market
My focus continues to be on the Mag 7, which has remained in its narrow range since last October. Should we break the lows, the broader indices will be at risk of a deeper correction. https://t.co/DCwPOyMXCH
Assuming 100% Development Underestimates Needed Zoning by 5x
This assumes that the probability of development of zoned capacity is 100%. That's unrealistic. Let's math it out: DC needs 120,000 units by 2050. Assume a high p(dev) of 5% every 5 years. DC would need to zone for 622,100...
Oil Price Spikes Can Boost US Economy
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels, Initial Supplies Arrive
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
USO Soars Post‑$124.50;
$USO incredible since $124.50 clear out. Wish $SLV had been this damn friendly. $SLV had so many V shape reversals and very easy to minimize trades if only covering 1/3-1/2 etc.
NBIS Holds $1.3B in Future Customer Pre‑Payments
"$NBIS is not getting customer Pre-Payments." Just because they didn't announce it doesn't mean they aren't. Clues are in the balance sheet. $1.6B in deferred revenues. $1.3B of that is non-current, revenues that won't be recognised in the next 12 months. Customers paid $NBIS $1.3B...
Calls Surge
Calls doubled on that move but reject at VWAP, likely round trip them waiting for the rip yo face off that never comes lol. But, worth the risk if it does 🤷♂️
War Stalls UAE Gold Trade, Pushing Prices Down
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
BE Shows Strong Move Off Key Pivot Level
$BE remains a focus (and a wild one) Nice action off the 50 & prior base pivot level https://t.co/yaovLcqxUf
Buy‑side Questions Cycle Durability; Stay Bullish yet Cautious
Talking to a lot of the buy side, it's clear that, despite understanding the constraints and the demand, the central debate is still the durability of the cycle across the board. It is ok to be bullish, but being sensitive...
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
Global Fossil Fuel Markets Fuel Domestic Energy Insecurity
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
New Home Share Still High, Gradually Normalizing
New home share of total inventory remains historically elevated, but is moving back toward normal. https://t.co/fgRMXqrkuk
Klarna: Potential 5x Upside Amid Subprime Risks
Klarna: 5x Opportunity or a Subprime Lender? $KLAR offers a uniquely asymmetrical profile: - Beat Down Stock - Expanding into Banking - Strong Growth - Potential for improving profits https://www.globalequitybriefing.com/p/klarna-5x-opportunity-or-a-subprime?r=39awso&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Spring Equinox Triggers 28‑Cent Gas Price Rise
"Tomorrow marks the official start of Spring and prices at the pump continued to climb by 28 cents since last week. With the Spring equinox ushering in warmer weather and more time on the road, gas prices are trending upward...
June S&P 500 E‑Mini Closes Below Key Line, Equities Risk
A close below the horizontal line shown below on the chart of the June S&P 500 E-Mini may not bode well for equities..... https://t.co/sQT9z0yJfP
10‑Year Treasury Real Yield Stalls at 1.89%
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
METC Poised for 2026 Earnings Turnaround, Shorts May Unwind
$METC - coal stocks gaining traction. 2026 is expected to be a turnaround year for them, with EPS set to turn positive in the second half. Short float is at 27%...these short sellers may start closing as the company begins to...
Free Deep‑Dive Equity Thesis on META, MU, GOOGL
I have published Deep Dive Equity Thesis on Substack. META, MU and GOOGL Check it out for free. I have shared my perspective and recommendations. I love these thesis. I hope you will like them as well.
Modest S&P Drawdown Leaves Market Vulnerable to War Mis‑read
The heatmap below shows that the drawdown for the S&P 500 remains modest at -5.4%. The market is only modestly oversold with 32% of stocks above their 50-day moving average. Sentiment is mixed and both earnings expectations and margins remain...
Option Flows Aren't Market Masters; March 5 Misread Macro
option flows don't always control the mkt, real bad call on Mar 5, too myopic in blowing off the macro https://t.co/hLBe0RyCYC
Consumer Staples Slump, but Market Collapse Unlikely
Consumer Staples are hitting new 6-week lows today relative to the S&P500. That's not something I'd expect to see if the stock market was about to collapse.
January New‑home Sales Plunge to Lowest Since 2022
Temporary Freeze or Deeper Chill? New home sales fell sharply in January to 587K (vs. 722K expected), marking the slowest pace since Oct 2022 and the steepest monthly drop since 2013. https://t.co/W9Fwrwtvjb
Using Iranian Oil to Temporarily Suppress Prices
“We’d be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days.” Masterful gambit, sir.
Trump’s Oil Price Stunt Ignores Rising Fuel Costs
COLUMN: Trump has seemingly turned WTI oil into a referendum on his war against Iran: more than $100 👎; less than $100 👍 But WTI isn't what matters for America's Main Street: refined petroleum products do -- and prices are rising...
Gold Slides 17% as Key Support Crumbles
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Plunges 17% – Key Support Break Sparks Risk https://t.co/oj3h71da7v $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ehqks3gynu
Oil Shocks Vary: Some Brief, Others Enduring
The next chart shows the major oil shocks, including 1973, 1979, 1990, 2008, and 2022. Some were brief, others were not. 🧵 https://t.co/SHZJOMDkYG
Adobe Stock Plummets to 7‑year Low as AI Loser
Adobe Stock Hits 7-Year Low After It's Branded AI Loser https://t.co/CDZou0lrKO $ADBE $DOCU $HUBS $MSFT $ORCL
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
ECB Officials Hint at Possible April Rate Hike
ECB officials see possibility of rate hike at April meeting https://t.co/p0GjFZzqz2 via @jrandow @Alemrome https://t.co/WN1EPwWl0Y
Gold Slides 15% as War‑Driven Safe Haven Fails
Gold is down 15% since the war escalated, even as the Pentagon seeks $200 billion for the conflict. Safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/bzmDKfsv4g
New
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...
Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge Squeeze Gold, Silver
Precious Metal Miner Misery #crudeoil $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $GLD $SLV $DXY $GDX I break down how rising oil, yields & a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and miners - while client research shows oil shocks disrupt auto demand & hit platinum and...
Canadian Solar Nears Breakout After 28% Decline
Canadian Solar $CSIQ shareholders quietly singing to themselves, "the sun will come out... tomorrow??"... the stock is -27.9% and trading right back to the Oct 1/25 breakout bar... https://t.co/SKgnzJIXax
Dollar's Short-Term Risks vs Long-Term Strength
The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics
US, Allies Push De‑Escalation as Iran Escalates; Hormuz Closed
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the...
China's Actions Could Cripple Global Fertilizer Supply
As with fuel, so with fertilizers. If maintained, China will remove a major global fertilizer exporter (second largest in 2024) from the market already slammed by the closure of the Straits https://t.co/ecZOLrSkBL
Investors Misinterpret the Efficient Frontier’s Real Meaning
There's a curve in finance that most investors get wrong. It's called the efficient frontier. Markowitz defined it in 1952. Most investors still don't understand what it means in practice. Here's what they get wrong:
VRP Widens as Volatility Drops, Shown on PLTR
You can pull up this type of chart on almost any symbol and see that the VRP tends to be fatter when vol is low This is PLTR Written about it in lots of places. https://t.co/zUpvOPQB7T
Energy Stocks Overbought After Mid‑January Surge
energy stocks seem a tad (short-term) stretched and pretty cleary overbought... since they took off (no, not when Iran was attacked) but instaed in mid-January as they broke out, they've had little in the way of pullback... $XEG $XLE
BoC Holds Rates; War Fuels Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada won’t be cutting rates anytime soon. Inflation is rising because of the war 🇮🇷
Imported High-End GPUs Returning to Market
Tencent Holding Ltd. Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript CSO Mitchell: “Higher-end imported GPUs are now becoming available again.” Well yes..... https://t.co/93O4LUslpq
Brent‑WTI Spread Shifts Slowly; Short‑term Moves Are Noise
For those of you trying to figure out what's going on with the Brent-WTI spread. Let me point out an old gem that helps explain it. - Different delivery date windows - Different contract expiration dates - When things are volatile, individual...
US Skips Crude Export Ban, Eyes Refined Limits
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
S&P Hits Q1 Record, yet Undercuts Prior Q4 Lows
Random: Calendar years where the S&P 500 sets a new ATH in Q1 - yet also trades to a lower quarterly low than Q4 of the prior year? $spx Mar-25 Mar-22 Mar-20 Mar-94 Mar-90 ...
YPF
YPF now seeing buyers 3500 May $42 calls for $3.15 to $3.20, nice run already from last week write up https://t.co/4fVGR5BExA
Homebuilders, High‑Yield Credit, World Index Lag Volatility
Worst asset performers relative to their own vols in the past month on my watchlist Homebuilders, high yield credit, world equity index https://t.co/gpd005m2Yi
Fuel Prices: Retailers Gouging or Government Fault?
@mrmbrown and I talk about whether fuel retailers are price gouging, or is the government the villain here? https://t.co/IeuhUHsjut