Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
Revenue Seasonality Drives Market Volatility, Explore Data Insights
Moontower Thursday 🌙Sold some puts on a turd so then I needed to like look at it and stuff 🌙Exploring the link between revenue seasonality and volatility You'll find several ways of looking at data to test your own ideas. https://t.co/nO8SPhrkJm https://t.co/MMfM6hW9aP
Mass
$GLD put of the day, 450 opex from $1-30, inciting a dealer dumpathon ON https://t.co/jU8qmVi9bh
US Intel Says China Not Planning 2027 Taiwan Invasion
US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA https://t.co/yR1D5boDrL
Energy Market Overestimates Absorption Amid Modest Brent Rise
Fascinating to see where Brent and TTF are trading right now after the last 24 hours of attacks and counter attacks. Brent is up a mere 3%, and TTF is lower than at the peak on Tuesday March 3rd. The...
Start Small, Grow Your 401(k) Match Incrementally
If your company has match with your 401K and your budget can’t handle contributing 5%. Don’t skip your contributions — start with 1% and move the needle as you get a bump via bonus or pay. I did this and...
VIX Plunge Signals Rising Market Complacency Amid Stress
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
S&P 500’s Narrow Bias Challenges Passive Portfolio Strategies
The S&P 500 remains the standard benchmark—but its current makeup may no longer reflect the broad, diversified U.S. exposure investors assume. What does that mean for passive investing, manager evaluation, and portfolio decisions? https://t.co/WLekmvu2T3
ECB Baseline Obsolete as Markets Price Adverse Inflation
🇪🇺 Unfortunately for the ECB, and despite the staff best efforts to use a later-than-usual cut-off date, their baseline scenario looks instantly obsolete. Market pricing for inflation is already consistent with the adverse scenarios. The main question is about indirect effects....
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
De-Dollarization Gold Theory Dead, I Remain Defensive
The de-dollarization thesis driving gold may be well and truly dead. I'm acting defensively. I have failed - once again - to internalize a theory of mind for pathological narcissists and psychopaths.
Massive UCO Call Purchase Signals $300 Gas Surge
Ultra Crude (UCO) buyer 1000 October $55 calls $9.80 to $10.50 Oh boy... $300 tank fill up incoming
Heavily‑shorted Oil Services Rally as Iran Concerns Ease
$RIG Daily. Heavily-shorted oil services play still consolidating well in uptrend. Market sorting out Iran issues, but Transocean remains in play for new leg higher https://t.co/EZ3IJqVcHW
ECB Forecasts Mild Recession With
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts...
Investors Flock to Long‑term US Treasuries Today
It's funny that long term US treasuries is where people are putting their money today. They make more folks.
VXUS Holds 76, Eyes 20‑Week SMA Breakout
$VXUS holding this 76 support is a good start, would like to see it go back over 20sma weekly. If it does not hold the bounce next support is 70 zone https://t.co/TnlCPcH9W4
Silver Holds Above $64, Poised for April Rebound
$Silver is trading below its 100 day MA for the 1st time since its April 2025 low. However, I don't think it's relevant since it retested the February low earlier today, so unless it breaks below 64 it probably made...
QQQ Repeatedly Breaks Pre‑Market Support, Turning It Into Resistance
$QQQ has failed 3X at pre-market support. *support becomes resistance*. why does this happen so often? https://t.co/0jxQyPgMtd
Small Caps Thrive as Large Caps Falter in Risk‑Off
IWM up 1.76% on the year. SPY down 2.88%. Small caps outperforming large caps by nearly 460 basis points. Nobody covers this because the narrative is pure risk-off. But small caps — domestic, value-oriented, less exposed to global supply chains —...
Fed's Hidden 1.9% Inflation Fuels 8,000 S&P Target
The Fed just spoke. Now hear what they won't tell you. LIVE today 1PM ET with @JDHatfield_ICAP: → Real inflation is 1.9%, not 3.1% → S&P target: 8,000 → CE credit eligible FREE: https://t.co/hWPjvUpuMt @InfraCap https://t.co/OV1gD4HZBs
ECB's Caution Highlights BoE's Bold Move
its funny (to me) that the ECB obviously looked at the BoE statement today and thought "OK, lets not do anything THAT crazy". The BoE... making the ECB seem sensible
Lagarde’s Mic‑drop Secures Two ECB Rate Hikes
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
Goldman, JPMorgan Enable Hedge Funds to Short Private Credit
Goldman and JPMorgan are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market https://t.co/oylGukMJd0
Emerging Markets Hold Up, S&P Bounces After Pullback
emerging markets $EEM vs. S&P 500 $SPX still looks legit and bounced after the first "pullback against"... let's keep an eye... https://t.co/2tOH6LJWWS
Predict Gold's Price One Year From Today
Perfect day to ask the question... the price of $gold a year from now will be
Gold and Silver Spike After Panic V‑Pattern
$GLD and $SLV incredible panic opp today, started in and then scaled right side of the V @IUTraders https://t.co/eHPwo4cI94
Lagarde Leans on “Propagation” Amid Inflation Uncertainty
ECB's Lagarde is asked to be specific on inflation in a bad case scenario. Instead of Powell's "I dunno", Lagarde says: be patient, I'll expand. Longer speech on "particularly attentive to..." -- uses the magic word "second round effect" --...
Geop
Crude Oil - Imp Update WTI & Brent crude Premium Gap is $17 now Normal Premium $4-5 Means $10-12 additional premium due to Geopolitics We have seen similar trend in Silver before the 20-23% fall came If any positive trigger will...
Strong Micron Earnings Fail, Market Shows Weakness
Micron delivered the kind of earnings report that would typically get rewarded. Instead, the stock dropped out the gate. That tells you a lot about the current tape. Our momentum model is long $MU https://t.co/lIbnvWxb3S
DFA Leverages Section 351 After Exchange Fund Attempt
DFA entering the Section 351 game... https://t.co/ScNBQmXbwU A smart move after their attempt at an exchange fund.
Energy Rises, S&P Crashes: Stagflation Signal Emerges
Energy stocks at all-time highs. The S&P 500 at 2026 lows. CNN Fear & Greed at 20 — Extreme Fear. This is the stagflation setup in real time: rising energy costs crushing margins while growth softens. What I find fascinating is how...
Capital‑Efficient International Overlay Adds Global Exposure Without Selling US
Our latest 90/60 ETF idea out today This idea came from a client in our capital efficient overlays w/ gold. Problem: current portfolio was 100% US stocks --likes idea of adding international, but doesn't want to sell US core. Solution:...
Abundant Money Missed: Reevaluate Your Strategy
if you failed to make money on this Open you need to review your process. there was too much money and good risk/reward to have not pulled money out of the market. $QQQ $MU $SLV https://t.co/Ldkou9WOfj
Fed Diverges, Creating Clean Macro Trade Opportunity
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
SPX Above 6640 Signals Short‑term Failure Risk
If $SPX gets back above 6640 (and the 200 day MA), we would have a short-term failure on our hands. Not sure if that kick starts anything substantial, but it wouldn't be a terrible look...
Sold Half of March Hedge Discussed on BizBriefing
sold half of the March hedge I spoke of on @BizBriefing this am with @janetonthemoney .
War, Debt, and Inflation Will Cripple Growth Stocks
Growth stocks will be severely decapitated from this war. I just check some data and growth stocks valuations will get capped. Working overtime to get the data ready. It’s not as simple as just buying the dip with 1. Cost of War 2. Escalation of...
Copper Stocks Tumble as Supply Outpaces Demand
i can hear the copper stock investors from here... "but, but, but, there is a shortfall of copper" why are the stocks falling? $COPX $FCX $SCCO answer: more supply than demand... they rallied hard, many were surely late, and now...
Oversold Doesn't Signal Bullishness; No Reversion Yet
Oversold is NOT Bullish. The REVERSION from Oversold is (can be). *FYI - We have no reversion (yet).
Bearish SLV Call Proven Right as Prices Plunge 44%
Back in January, when I was heckled for this tweet on selling $SLV, it only convinced me more that my analysis—and bearish view—was right. Today, bottom fishers are getting slammed as we hit fresh new lows down over 11% this...
Iranian Attack Knocks 17% of QatarEnergy LNG Offline
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. https://t.co/LWYkomhG8G
S&P 500
Will look closer later, but this might be the first time in a while the S&P 500 gapped under its 200-day MA without having previously breached it even intraday in the prior months. Interesting.
Lag
Have a sense this will be a hawkish presser, on balance ... difficult for Lagarde to push back against market expectations given these new forecasts, unless you take a very asymmetric view on inflation v growth risks, which they may...
Consistently Beating the S&P? Just Buy the Market
Beating the S&P 500 isn't difficult. But beating the S&P 500 consistently, over the long term, is very very difficult. Many people overestimate their ability to pick good stocks over the long term. They eventually realize that it’s a losing game. That's why...
Micron Bounces to S1, Must Hold
$MU #1 GP nice bounce from S3 to S1. needs to hold above S1 for a real reversal... https://t.co/p5x41JetUu
Bigger Homes Reset Wealth, Stalling Financial Growth
The “Upgrade Trap” Why Most People Become Poorer Every Time They Buy a Bigger House This is one of the most ignored patterns in Gurgaon. People think upgrading homes means moving forward. In reality, most upgrades reset wealth. And every reset delays compounding. The First Property...
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
European Freight Rates Set to Drop as Diesel Soars
[Editor's Pick] European Freight Rates Face Immediate Corrections on Soaring Diesel Prices - https://t.co/0yXOKgPT8A @TransporeonUS @TrimbleCorpNews #dieselprices #EU #trucking #transportation #logistics #supplychain
Germany Mulls Windfall Tax Amid Iran War‑driven Fuel Surge
Germany weighs windfall tax as Iran war drives fuel price surge https://t.co/9SNpQgvAXy via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/YrOXXrSiVq
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...