Salesforce Insider Purchase Signals Potential SaaS Bottom
Is someone tracking the insider buying across the broader SaaS complex? In Japan, only 5%+ holders need to disclose buying and selling, so there's limited data. But feels like we're nearing a bottom.
Startup Think Tank Leads Deep China FX Policy Analysis
Really? Name one start-up think tank that analyzes the latest twist and turns in China's fx policy with any depth. I would humbly submit that this blog is at the analytical frontier, ahead of what most of...
Gas Prices Won’t Fall: Global Supply, Not Local Shortages
This won't lower gasoline prices. The issue is overall global supply and not acute domestic shortages caused by transportation shortfalls.
Most Stocks Lose Money, Yet Market Adds $91T
Self Recommending: "One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets" by Hendrik Bessembinder. A century of data for nearly 30,000 U.S. public companies. Fun fact: "Shareholders' wealth was enhanced by $91 trillion over the century, but long-term investors in nearly...
Hot CPI Triggers Price Discovery, No Fade—Execute Now
266 points on NQ. 💰 Hot CPI → price discovery → no fade. Just execution. Most traders fight this move. I press it. Comment “I’m in” and I’ll send the setup 📩 #vwap #futurestrading #tradingstrategy
Post‑war Tanker Boom Ends, Crude Lifts Plunge Sharply
Concerns mount over rate hangover after wartime tanker boom ends ▶️Global seaborne crude liftings volume plunged last week; alternatives to MEG are replacing only half of lost VLCC tonne-mile demand, according to Vortexa ⏩️Oil at ses is down ⏩️Nobody will keep oil at...
Gold, Silver Surge Validates Longs Amid Fed Confirmation
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Brent‑WTI Spread Hits $12, Widest Since 2020
Brent crude is trading around 110 while WTI (US-benchmark) is under 100 per barrel. The current Brent-WTI spread is hovering around $12, the widest it has been since April 2020 https://t.co/Ll4QYHc69V
AI Pre‑Market Tool Picks Winners: COHR, SAIL, TTD
i've been playing with AI tool for my pre-market game planning. it runs at 8AM and 8:45AM. i used #2 #3 from 8AM run. #2 from 8:45 for my GP. #1 $COHR traded well of the Open to R3. #2 $SAIL #3 $TTD...
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Asia Faces Energy Shock as Gas Supplies Tighten
Good morning Asia, Brent rising but also watch products as we consume products not crude. For Asia, Qatari gas is very key & for some like Pakistan, that is 100% of supply. For others, still a big challenge, such as India. Even...
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...
Powell Could Remain FOMC Chair Until 2026
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
Burning Puts Unintentionally Fuels the Global Economy
4400 likes - all you people burning puts are supporting the global economy i thank you for your service
Iranian Missile Damages Qatar LNG Hub, Threatens Global Supply
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
San Francisco's Pandemic‑Era Inventory Has Vanished Completely
Gave a quick talk for agents in San Francisco today. Would you be surprised to learn that all the pandemic-era inventory in the city is completely gone? We really are in the next era of the housing market https://t.co/JmnzqbgEMn
Equity Put/Call Ratio Peaks at 1.11, Highest Since April 2024
$CPCE - The CBOE equity put/call ratio spiked to 1.11, its highest level since April 2024. The 10 day moving average of the ratio is now at 0.73 which is higher than it was at April 2025 low. The last...
Spend Less Than You Earn, Find Happiness
His advice is literally the same as Mr. Micawber in David Copperfield (Dickens): “Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 19 pounds, 19 shillings and 6 pence, result happiness. Annual income 20 pounds, annual expenditure 20 pounds ought and 6, result misery”
S&P 500 Faces Frequent >1% Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% today, its 7th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Agriculture Offers Untapped Value, Says Jeff Currie
Jeff Currie reads Scouting the Tape. "I think the best sector to try to get value in right now would be agriculture, because it hasn't priced it in." https://t.co/toQMBsZcct
Export Limits Would Backfire, Raising U.S. Gas Prices
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
A $1 Altria Investment Grows to $4.4 Million
If grandpappy bought $1 worth of Altria stock 100 years ago and reinvested the dividends, it would be worth $4,421,136 today. (ignoring Uncle Sam's cut) https://t.co/xAeDUtYZMt https://t.co/dD6ILijqop
Daily 50‑MA Signals Ranging Market, Gold Set to Rebound
The higher timeframes always tell the real story The daily and weekly are my go to Nas100 (Nasdaq) rejecting off that daily 50 MA VIX bounce off that daily 50 MA Gold falling through that daily 50 MA Market is still ranging technically...
Common Sense Beats Expert Advice in Oil Spread Trades
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
MU Mirrors
Feels like they ran the $NVDA playbook nearly identically on $MU. Run it up into an earnings print everyone knew was going to be a massive beat, trap everyone at the top and dump it. https://t.co/U6oFLLrLx9
S&P 500 Tests Support Near 200‑Day MA
#SP500 Down Candle and parked on 200 day MA Line. Support 6521, 6443, 6360. Resistance 6710, 6845, 6901. RSI 39 not low. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Top Bollinger Band 6860. Midpoint Line 6727. Bottom Band 6590.
2011 Oil Spike
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
Copper Prices Slump as Yields Rise, FCX Near $50
Breakdown in COMEX Copper joins Gold, Silver and Platinum in weakening as real yields turn back higher and Bund yields on the verge of a major multi-year breakout @IBDinvestors Investors Business Daily @marketsurge charts of Freeport McMoran $FCX fell also to...
Oversold Growth Stocks Show Unexpected Strength versus Indices
Growth stocks declined over the past few months and are now very oversold. Interesting to note that they are now showing relative strength versus $NDX $SPX The generals of the army always get shot in the end.
Housing Market Shows Fragile Early Green Shoots
Spoke with @SchwabNetwork about the outlook for the housing market. Some fragile green shoots are beginning to emerge. https://t.co/AnXqQAj4mN
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Iran's Missile Strike Fails; Investors Still Expect Hormuz Opening
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...
Micron Mirrors Nvidia's 2023 Surge in Revenue Growth
Micron has been trading like Nvidia circa 2023 because it’s growing top line like Nvidia circa 2023 $MU $NVDA https://t.co/QfTDEfwA3p https://t.co/D5Z0rxoIyB
Shorting Ignored Even in Perfect Bearish Environment
A recent fintwit observation is that I've never seen such strong sentiment against shorting, particularly equities, despite what seems like the perfect environment for it. I guess it's not surprising that's the consensus view given record low investor cash levels,...
Trump Blames Fed While His Policies Fuel Market Decline
President Trump claiming the stock market is doing down because of Fed Chair Powell. The stock market has declined because of the conflict in the Middle East, higher oil price and risk of rising inflation. So, the President himself is responsible...
Investor Exodus Hits Consumer Loans, Stone Ridge Honors 11%
Private credit's investor exodus has spread to consumer loans. Redemption requests at a ~$2bn Stone Ridge fund holding loans made by fintech lenders were so high that it would honor only 11% of the amount investors wanted back. https://t.co/JXy1RCBLRX
Private Lending Demands Active Vetting, Not Pure Passivity
Private money lending isn’t 100% passive. There’s upfront work you need to do. Vetting borrowers will take a majority of your time and this part isn’t nor will ever be passive. The closest thing you get is if you have...
Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Facility, Risking Power Outages
Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure for the first time; the strike hit a processing facility tied to the South Pars gas field, which could lead to major electricity shortages in Iran within days. Access my daily coverage of the...
Major Indices Near 200‑Day SMA After Ten‑Month Gap
$SPX $SPY $QQQ all look ready to touch 200 day SMA for the 1st time in 10 months
Short EWY Offers Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
The technical setups for shorts here look good too. Strong risk:reward propositions with invalidations nearby. Stop loss at new closing high above $138 on $EWY for example risks $6 to make $20-$40 depending on if it lands at 100 or...
Risk Assets Set to Breach Key Levels on Higher Breakouts
Here's your intermarket cheat sheet All those critical levels in play for risk assets... are likely to be violated if these bases break higher $DXY $HYG https://t.co/uF7nG5qda6
QQQ Could Slip to 575 If 590 Fails
If 590 zone (200sma daily and recent lows) $QQQ does not hold, natural magnet 575 which is horizontal support and 50sma weekly https://t.co/xmzd9tN8q6
Iran Expands Energy Targets Amid Rising Gulf Strike Success
A brief update on what we know about the strikes in the Middle East right now: Israel and the US targeted South Pars, a joint Iranian-Qatari gas field. In response, the Iranians have now labeled all energy infrastructure in the region...
All Major ETFs Slip Below YTD VWAP, Bearish Outlook
This is not encouraging if you are bullish. $SPY confirmed below major level of supply $QQQ hanging on by a nose hair (advanced technical analysis term), ready to break lower $SMH carving out a right shoulder of HnS top? $IWM most neutral...
China's Oil Route Closure Threatens Growth, Hits FXI
$FXI down 8% since January. China imports the bulk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged closure doesn't just hit energy costs. It hits the entire growth model. https://t.co/lSosVCvxcm
Big OTM Call Surge Hits Biotech TERN at $55
That biotech $TERN that folks were murmuring about days ago getting some bigly OTM call buying in the March $55 strike Think it was this nutty guy https://t.co/YIWYwL0845
Powell's Hawkish Tone Signals No Rate Cuts Yet
That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.
Fed's 'Neutral' Decision Sparks Market Sell‑off
This Wasn't a Neutral FED Meeting. Here's the Truth. The Fed left rates unchanged. Everyone expected that. But the reaction told a completely different story. Stocks🔻dropped. Gold🔻dropped. Dollar climbed ⬆️ This was not a boring meeting. Not even close $SPY $GLD $DXY https://t.co/28xpHI13Ju
China’s Surplus Soars, Europe Squeezed by Energy and Competition
China's manufacturing surplus looks to have taken another leg up. Always a good idea to get confirmation in March given the new year distortions. But Europe looks to be getting squeezed both by China and higher energy prices https://t.co/8EZnqysgKL