Key Indices Breach 5‑SMA, Then Resume Steep Declines
Rus, SP, Naz and DOW: All got look above 5 SMA, but could not hold. SP, Rus and DOW remain on extended runs DOWN. https://t.co/3ZBu6MNk9F
Pinball Flips:
Pinball Sells in SP DOW NAZ Bonds EC Peso and Pinball Buys in CL W $ and CL. markets batting `100% in Asia session. "Turnaround Tuesday" kicking in.
RTO Hits Strongest February Since COVID Despite NYC Snow
RTO keeps grinding higher. February was the strongest since COVID even with NYC snow dragging numbers. Severe Northeast snowstorms weighed on NYC and Boston, while major markets outside the region continued to post YoY gains. 🔗 https://t.co/1IhvNZPYUS https://t.co/uIpOony3hv
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Estimating Billion‑Dollar Price Tag for Anthropic's
If you were Ken Griffin, how much would you pay Anthropic to do this? Feel free to round to the nearest billion.
Yen Slides Below Mid‑2024 Low; Intervention Won’t Halt Decline
The Yen has fallen below its previous low from mid-2024. This even though we're within two months of the NY Fed "rate check," which temporarily lifted it. As long as Japan believes in FX intervention, it's in denial on debt...
Key PD Array Blocks Every Trader Should Know
PD Arrays📊 1 Mitigation Block📊 2 Breaker Block📊 3 Fair Value GAP (FVG) 📊 4 Orderblock📊 5 Liquidity Pools 📊
Target Distressed Sellers in Low‑liquidity Markets for Discounts
A lot of real estate is simply finding structural sellers Over the last few years, a lot of bad operators made some big mistakes. So you’re simply going to target them: 1. Position yourself in lower liquidity markets (markets where owners will have...
Satirical Call for Extreme Market
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma....
NVDA Holds 180 Zone, Eyes 168 Support
$NVDA steady in the correction -- hugging 180 zone for 7 months. If market gets legs we like this one, and if market pulls back, then 168 support potential reversal long https://t.co/LpCUhBi2ax
Soy‑corn Ratio Hits Two‑month Low, Prompting Acreage Shift
📉The new-crop soybean-corn ratio has hit a two-month low (closer to corn-favoring territory), so will U.S. farmers go easier on the presumed corn ➡️ bean acreage switching? The 2022 ratio move didn't exactly buy corn acres. Fert prices are the obvious...
VIX Plummets Despite Modest S&P Rise, Showing Over‑VIXing
$VIX had to come down with a 1% gain in $SPX. 3.7 points is a big drop for a 1% change, but we've been over-vixxing for a while now, as shown in the second chart. https://t.co/OV1trbLQxV
Big Positions Blur Reality—Stay Rational, Stay Grounded
The biggest issue with holding big positions (winners and losers) is when you lose your rationality. You only see what you want to see or hope the business to be, not what it actually is. You must always stay anchored...
Probate Avoidance Isn’t the Sole Measure of Success
"Avoiding Probate" is misleading as the marker of estate plan success. Because probate is so commonly framed as something to be avoided at all costs, its presence is often interpreted as evidence that the estate plan failed. That interpretation is...
212-Day 200‑Day MA Streak Signals Quick Recovery
To clarify - the S&P 500 has closed above its 200-day for 212 straight days. There have been 28 other such streaks. In 71% of the cases when it broke below the average after a streak this long it...
NVDA Calls Surge $30M After $1T Revenue Forecast
$30M Call Spike on $NVDA after NVDA ceo says he expects revenue to surpass $1 trillion by 2027. 👇
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
SPX Stabilizes; Watch for Looming Big Short
SPX $6630 hit Friday target & we bounced on cue into a 'stabilizing week' ahead of VIX expiration, MU earnings, FOMC, BOJ & month end OpEx. Even chasing $CAVA, swing long $JD & trend long $AA from live trading room. But be...
Gas Prices May Not Drop, Warns Chris Wright
Chris Wright: ‘There’s No Guarantee’ Gas Prices Will Come Down #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5uYwIoPK6a https://t.co/dvezbMMNE9
Seize Late Entry as Shorts Fade, Target $12 Risk
$WNW been a minute since we've had such a clear opportunity Best to be a little late on these types where shorts step in early and add add add. Here was the entry vs $12 risk in @IUTraders Rather be...
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Millions Secured Below‑Market Housing Costs for Decades
Exactly A large group of people have locked in below market shelter costs for decades to come
Nvidia Targets $1T by 2027, 60% From Hyperscalers
Nvidia: $1 trillion through 2027. But note also that 60% of revenues to come from hyperscalers. https://t.co/evpntwphxH
Billions in FX Options Set to Expire Tomorrow
Notable FX options expiring tomorrow: 1.6 bln euros at $1.15 $720 mln at JPY158.40 A$430 mln at $0.7100 and A$485 at $0.7045 $685 mln at BRL5.20 $550 mln at CAD1.3645
NVDA Beats Forecasts, Stock Barely Reacts, Investors Confident
The fact that Jensen guided CY27 revenue about 7% ahead of the Street, yet the stock only moved about 1% higher on the news, speaks to investors' willingness to believe. $NVDA
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
NVDA Lifts CY27 Revenue Outlook 7% Above Street
Big update on demand: Stock goes from up 2% to up 3%. Raised CY27 revenue to be about 7% higher than the Street. Specifics: Jensen now says through end of CY27 there is $1 trillion in demand for Rubin. Three weeks...
Brent Drops Again, Risk Premium Already Overpriced
Today marks the second Monday in a row where - after a weekend with lots of alarmist talk about how high prices will go - Brent has fallen. That tells you a big risk premium is priced and it's not...
Massive Nvidia Put Sales Signal Market Panic
Yes, this is why boatloads of $NVDA puts were sold to open this morning And yes, all the other options flow sites thought they bought https://t.co/6AWLqSDvRH
Housing Softening Turns Sellers Into Accidental Landlords
A jump in "accidental landlords" often occurs when a housing market softens/weakens Some sellers list their home, fail to sell, and then test the rental market—often temporarily—while they wait for for-sale conditions to improve https://t.co/dFiL2EDnQJ
Massive Saudi Arab Light Tanker Flotilla Heads to Asia
LINK: https://t.co/Iz3LToWVCF A flotilla of Oil Tankers Carrying Saudi Arab Light Crude to Asia Map form @Kpler
US Data Center Spending Overtakes Office Projects
Spending on data center projects in the US has exploded, surpassing offices for the first time at the end of last year. https://t.co/0qR4WGHhjm
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
Well‑priced Sacramento Homes Sell Fast; Overpriced Linger
Properties are getting into contract pretty quickly. Here's a look at pendings over the past week in the Sacramento region. The good stuff goes quickly if it's priced well, but overpriced stuff will sit. https://t.co/FkJxfXf4uo
OPEC+ Shutdown Nears 8.5 MMbpd Amid Iran Conflict
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
U.S. Gas Prices Surge 25% Since War Began
Gas in the U.S. is now up 25% since the war began and 21% from a year ago. Source: WSJ
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
SATS Attempts Breakout Above 50-Day Moving Average
$SATS working on the right side of its new base and trying to get back above its 50-day moving average. Chart courtesy of @marketsurge @IBDinvestors #IBDPartner https://t.co/91XEuEGmgG
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
Master Market Structure Before You Even Enter Trades
Most traders blame their entries, indicators, or strategy. But the truth is… You lose before the trade even starts. Markets operate like an auction. Once you understand: • Price rotation • Value areas • Market structure Tools like VWAP and Volume Profile finally make sense. Comment “I’m in” and...
Rising 1‑Month Vol Triggers Upside Squeeze Risk
1-month realized vol is still above 3-month realized vol. That keeps the market in a high-volatility regime, which forces vol-control funds to reduce equity exposure as volatility rises. If 1M realized vol drops back below 3M realized vol, systematic strategies will be...
BAX at 52‑week Low, EPS Miss, Accumulate Near $17
BAX hits 52‑week low $16.99 (-49%). EPS miss, rev beat, CFO exit and margin pressure; neutral $24 PT. Risk: execution & profit recovery. Trade: accumulate small near $17 to $24. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Dismantles Old Moats, Builds New Competitive Barriers
Charlie Munger: "It’s probably a natural part of the modern economic system that the old moats stop working." 2020 Daily Journal AGM AI eliminating or reducing the effectiveness of some moats is inevitable. New moats being created in an AI...
Silver's Breakout Signals Buying Chance as Miners Plunge
Silver just made a massive breakout, and the next explosive move could start any day. If you’ve been waiting for a “better entry,” this is the moment the market often doesn’t give you one. Meanwhile, gold & silver mining stocks (GDX...
Three S&P 500 Headwinds, One Overlooked Indicator Each
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
HALO Stocks Just Rebranded Value‑Growth Rotation, Not AI‑Proof
HALO stocks — Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence — are being sold as a new AI-proof strategy. But Goldman's own data shows the trade tracks value vs. growth almost perfectly. A familiar rotation with a fresh acronym. I've taken a closer...
US‑China Talks Trigger Sharp Drop in May Soybeans
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
Sell‑side Fades War‑Inflation Trade, Energy Seen as Growth Killer
Sell-side is fading the war-inflation trade in the front end. The consensus? High energy prices are a growth killer, not a long-term inflation driver. For now, the tape is happy to ignore them.
High ROIC and Strong Interest Coverage Drive Stock Returns
ROIC, and ROA and ROE are the strongest predictors of stock performance. Each measures how efficiently a company converts capital into profits. Interest Coverage (EBIT / interest expense) captures financial strength and ability to service debt. Markets reward companies that: • generate high...
Turn 30 Into Wealth: Skill up, Save, Invest
Are you still broke at 30? Time to flip the script and build real wealth. Start here: • Grow yourself: Level up skills to boost your income. • Spend smart: Cut unnecessary fluff—every dollar counts. • Save aggressively: Aim for that...