US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Price Wave Deviation Bands Reveal Market Regime, Guiding Trade
Most traders are told one thing: 📉 “Fade the extremes.” But when the market shifts into price discovery, that advice becomes dangerous. That’s exactly why we built the Price Wave Deviation Bands. They instantly show you whether the market is: ⚖️ Balanced (mean reversion) 🚀 Trending...
Diversify Beyond Equities: Gold, Capital Efficiency Boost Models
Yes, we are overweight equities, but it is the other stuff that has really helped our models. @sonusvarghese wrote this back in August on how we were thinking about gold, capital efficiency, and managed futures in a portfolio.
Bullish Patterns Faltering; Buttcorn Might Defy Trend
$IBIT - The vast majority of bullish patterns in the market are failing....we think Buttcorn is any different? https://t.co/v2yMsKEZXL
Fiat Currency Levels Dominate Markets; Gold Is Niche
It actually doesn’t make it a moot point. Bc single most important variable in global markets is relative level of fiat currencies. If you only care about gold, consider yourself fortunate to be in the .0001% of people on the...
Oil Prices Set to Test 61.8% and 78.6% Retracements
$USOIL - Closed above the 50% retracement level on Friday. Next week it's headed to at least the 61.8% retracement level at 103 and possibly to the 78.6% retracement level at 110. https://t.co/vUmCz2yZlr
Edge Lies in Better Event Probability, Not Sigma
Black-Scholes starts to break down when a stock stops trading on continuous volatility and starts trading on a mispriced discrete corporate event. In special situations, the edge is rarely in sigma. It’s in underwriting the probability-weighted outcome better than the...
90s Housing Market Snapshot: Sacramento and Nationwide Trends
Lots of focus on the ‘90s lately. What was the housing market like back then? Here’s what was happening in Sacramento and many markets across the country.
Amazon Faces Textbook Rejection; Bearish Technical Signals
$AMZN - Textbook rejection near the 200 day and ATH AVWAP coupled with RSI 50 chokeslam.... Not bullish.... https://t.co/4K3nbm9EM3
Master Mental Options Chains: Part Two
Part 2 of "building an options chain in your head" which way too many of you nerds enjoyed
Small Fund, Big Insight: Macro Hedge Wins 2007
He launched a macro hedge fund with $800K, fused thematic insight with disciplined risk control, and made a killing in 2007’s collapse.
TLT Poised to Breach Feb Low, Eye Historic Lows
$TLT - In just 2 weeks it's back to the February low due to the Iran war. If it beaks the February low(86.43) we will likely see a retest of the 2025 low and maybe even the 2023 low. https://t.co/Mm9e0lX2JM
Housing Prices Will Drop Without Income Growth
This is the big problem I see with U.S. housing. If incomes can't support prices, something has to give. While wealth transfers can offset this temporarily, most people won't have such a windfall. If incomes don't rise, prices will fall in...
Small‑Cap Value Beats Growth as Boring Sectors Rise
Small-cap growth dominated for years on speculation and unprofitable names. That trade is stalling. Q4 2025: small-cap value quietly outperformed growth for the first time in years. Insurance. Regional banks. Business services. The boring stuff is waking up. @InfraCap @JDHatfield_ICAP break it down: https://t.co/atAM4Pmj2y
Preserve Capital: Reallocate and Lock in Profits
It’s important to reallocate and manage your portfolio correctly as your positions grow. A lot of retail investors fail to crystallize profits. Manage your money correctly and remember the first rule is always preserve capital. Follow @thelonginvestor #investsmart #howtoinvest #stockmarkettips
Master Double Confirmation: Top 3 Trading Combos
Double Confirmation📊 The 3 Best Combos 📊 Single vs Double Confirmation📊 Double Confirmation Checklist📊 The Ultimate complete Trading A to 2 , 📊
Tiny Supply Cut Triggers Huge Gas Price Surge
If you need 100% of something and I take 2% of it away, you don't have enough of it. So, then, the market needs to reduce your demand by 2%. As it turns out, Americans will pay a lot for...
Keep Housing Costs Below 25% of Net Income
If these numbers make you uncomfortable... You’re probably overpaying 😬 The rule is simple: Your rent or mortgage should NEVER exceed 25% of your take home pay. Not gross. Overspending on housing is one of the biggest barriers to building real wealth... So if you want...
Data Says Patience; Trading Activity Can Mislead
The data dictates the posture. The work is still being done. I’m still reviewing hundreds of charts every week. Breadth, leadership, sector rotation, relative strength, all of it. But the message of what to do has changed. For some reason, people tend to equate...
Federal Intervention Shapes Oil Prices Amid Iran Tensions
Thank you @JMathieuReports and @tylerskendall for having me on @business Balance of Power yesterday, just before Secretary Burgum, to talk about oil, Iran, SPR, pump prices, and the federal government intervening in oil futures markets. @RapidanEnergy https://t.co/0RqDeHN4qa
White House Plans for Iran; Asks China for Warships
So let’s see if I got this right: The White House had anticipated (and prepared) for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. And part of that response is for the President to ask via social media geopolitical foes like...
HIMS Poised to Be Top 2026 Market Opportunity
$HIMS at $15 in 2026 will prove to be one of the best opportunities in the market this year. 💪🏻🚀
Drone Strike Halts Fujairah Oil Loading After Kharg
The response after Kharg Island? Some oil loading operations in the UAE port of Fujairah, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, have been suspended after a drone attack and fire on Saturday morning. https://t.co/rhA5ofo80y https://t.co/SkhA67PyzU
National Chains Threaten Neighborhood Charm Through Collective Rent Choices
“Tragedy of the commons” in interesting neighborhoods: Each individual owner incentivized to rent to national chains, due to their higher credit-quality. But, once too many do, the neighborhood loses what made it interesting in the first place.
Diversify with Real Assets as Stocks and Bonds Stall
Bonds flat and stocks lower YTD. Why owning things like commodities, real and hard assets, shorter duration bonds, and managed futures in this volatile inflation 🌎 is more important than ever.
S&P 500 Breadth Deteriorates, Stocks Lag Behind Index
S&P 500 breadth is terrible... (Market Breadth measures the performance gap between the S&P 500 Index and its median stock relative to their 52-week highs.) GS https://t.co/OLhF6yugXH
Missed RMD? Penalty Waiver Possible, Avoid Amending Returns
Missed Depreciation On A Rental? Why Amending Prior Returns Is Usually The Wrong Move: Missing a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) can incur a hefty tax penalty of up to 25% of the missed amount – however, the IRS allows individuals...
Hard Assets Surge While Financials Falter in 2026
Hard Assets vs. Financial Assets in a Multipolar World 2026 Coal $CNR +33% Oil & Gas $XOP +33% Natural Gas $FCG +27% Gold $GLD +16% Uranium $URNM +16% Silver $SIL +13% Copper $COPX +6% Nasdaq $QQQ -3% Mag 7 $MAGS -9% Banks $KBWB -10% Bitcoin $IBIT -19%
ES Futures Break Support, Bears Dominate Until Recovery
Big Picture View: From December to this week, #ES_F was in a range with 6765 support. This week, it failed, and we sold. Bears control until it recovers Plan next week: 6640 must reclaim to see 6704, 6758-65. 6588 must hold...
Energy Leads YTD; Financials and Bitcoin Lag
Brent & WTI crude oil leading YTD, Energy strong, gold hanging in there Financials & bitcoin weakest https://t.co/B5BLF2EwNT
Markets Crash Hard; Stick to Strategy and Keep Cash
During Dot Com crash (2000-2002) the S&P 500 dropped ~49%. During Financial Crisis (2007-2009) market dropped ~57%. During 1973-1974 bear market, it dropped 48%. We don’t just go up all the time. During bad times, you have to stick to your job &...
VIX, GLD Skew Reveal Iran‑China Geopolitical Link
Honored to be on with @JermalChandler and @TraderMikeyB to discuss $VIX $GLD skew why #Iran is about #China https://t.co/N4yZ7QkrnI
Lack of Surplus Forces You to Recycle Savings
If you are constantly sending money to your savings account and then two business days later, you have to move that money back into your checking account because something came up, that is usually not a discipline problem. Most of...
IEA Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger Historic Oil Disruption
‘The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market’: IEA’s take on the Hormuz crisis https://t.co/H9zKo9tCi4
Stocks Dip, Bitcoin Gains Strength; Risk‑off Could Reverse BTC
Stocks are pressing new lows while Bitcoin is quietly building relative strength. If we get a full risk-off cascade, don’t expect BTC to hang in there, but more chop for stocks and this can grind higher. 📺...
Risk‑Off Signals Rise, Yet Core Market Levels Hold
Today felt like a textbook risk-off session. Weak GDP revision. VIX back above 20. Short-term breadth rolling over. Dollar up. Rates pushing toward 4.3%. Oil surging. In CHART THIS I walk through what’s actually changing — and what isn’t. Six viewer questions. Clear levels. No drama. Watch...
Fed Independence Now Secured by Courts, Not Norms
The Fed won a sweeping court victory Friday. But the fact that it needed one tells you everything about how much has changed. The unsealed filings are something else—the Fed catalogued 100 Trump attacks on Powell and told a court...
Growing HSA to $6k with Yearly $1k Boost
Slowly building this HSA account almost at $6,000 one of the best account. Also every year increasing it to have $1000 extra till I max. Right now $4000 my portion and employer put $1000.
S&P 500 P/E Drops as Earnings Climb, Prices Stall
GS: The S&P 500 P/E multiple has declined as prices have moved sideways alongside rising earnings https://t.co/igjAW12exM
Growth or Oil Shock Could Cripple S&P 500
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
Debating Bear Market or Small‑Cap Financial Squeeze?
Do you believe this is a new bear market? Or are you buying small-cap financials down here for a squeeze higher? https://t.co/uDCoOUiDlO
10% Brent Rise Lifts SXXP EPS Growth 2%
GS Europe: A 10pp rise in Brent boosts SXXP annual EPS growth by 2pp, but lower growth would be an offset https://t.co/9uumqz15iG
2022 Marks Strong Earnings Revisions for STOXX Europe 600
Surprising..2022 was one of the best recent years in terms of upward earnings revisions for the STOXX Europe 600 GS https://t.co/6EHs3OPXa8
War Disruption Drives Hawkish Stance Across G10 Central Banks
New weekly drops. The war's disruption shapes the investment climate. Hawkish holds by seven of the 8 G10 central banks that meet. RBA could hike. Brazil had indicated a cut before the war. Still seems reasonable....
Treasury Yields Surge, Inflation Concerns Resurface
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
US‑Iran Conflict Slashes Market Breadth Across All Caps
Since the start of the US-Iran war, breadth has deteriorated sharply across large, mid, and small caps.
Oil Prices Unfazed by Massive Supply Shock
Brent above $100. WTI near $99. Strait of Hormuz shut. 20% of global oil at risk. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves — the largest ever. And it barely moved the needle. $WTI $USO https://t.co/Ue451KrbMz
Retail Investors Overleveraged, Flooding NVDA Call Market
Reality: most of these post-pandemic "Retail Investor" bulls just play a levered (fully loaded with options) game chasing the same stocks Despite the "get out" $NVDA Signal we issued this week, look at how many WEEKLY $NVDA $185 Calls traded...
S&P 500 Near 50% Concentration with AI, Space Titans
S&P 500 Concentration Approaching 50%.. if Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are added. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YBjnkn0aXw
Kick Off Weekend with In‑Depth Talk Featuring Molly Jong
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T