Great Returns Can Hide Dangerous Stock Concentration
François Rochon is a well known investment manager who has compounded at ~15% annualized for 30 years (!) In 2002 though he was much more obscure. A single stock was 20% of his portfolio. Below he shares his thoughts on selling and other mistakes. 🧵
Dollar Index Breaks High, Signals Strong 2027 Trend
$DXY - Broke out above its November high. The 3 year cycle low is confirmed. The Dollar is headed higher into 2027. The question is will the current cycle be a not so bullish cycle like the last one, or...
Middle East War Drives Policy Swings as G10 Banks Convene
Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves: The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy…...
Market Fear Matches 2022 Levels Despite Complacency
How big is the market fear factor? The 4 charts on the left show what's going on in spot markets. The 4 on the right show options markets. Compared to Russia's invasion of Ukraine 4 years ago, we're now at...
Silver Poised Above 20‑week MA, Limited Upside
$Silver - I expect it to hit the 20 week MA again next week or the following week. If it holds above the 20 week MA it will likely move higher into late April but not make a new ATH....
Nasdaq Tests Key 22,080 Support, Risks Drop to 20,500
The Nasdaq Composite is currently testing a crucial weekly support zone near the 22,080 mark. A breakdown here could open the doors for a deeper correction towards 20,500, making this a pivotal moment for tech equities. Dive into Rohit's complete...
Gold Holds Above 10‑Week MA, Eyes April ATH
$Gold - Closed lower for a 2nd week in a row but it's still above the 10 week MA. As long as it's above the 10 week MA this is likely to be another consolidation that will lead to a...
War Spikes Hedging While Markets Stay Oddly Complacent
As war escalates, markets look complacent. The S&P 500 is barely down and USD is up only a bit. But hedging activity in options markets is picking up a lot. That's most pronounced for oil (top left), but it's also...
Holding, Not Overtrading, Beats Clever Market Timing
Stupid investors make more money than you. Why? Because they don’t try to outsmart the market. Most people are constantly trading in and out. Reacting to every headline and thinking they’re being clever. But my biggest win came from being "stupid": I bought Palantir at $7. Selling...
Focus, Specialize, and Limit Setups to Profit
Don’t be a jack-of-all-trades but master of none. Specialize in one strategy. Pick one asset class. Focus on 1 to 5 charts. Define your trading timeframe. Trade 1–4 setups. Stay patient. That’s where the money is made.
LPG Tankers Cross Hormuz After Tehran‑Delhi Talks
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Oil Shocks Ripple Through Every Product, Exposing Economic Vulnerability
Why oil shocks still hit everything we buy. “We should be very concerned, the longer the conflict lasts, the more prices will rise and ripple through the economy.” From petrol to plastics, another fossil fuel crisis shows how exposed economies remain...
India’s Crude Basket Shows Persistent Historical Volatility
Crude has been a rough player in the past too, in India. Our average crude basket, yearly, looks like this : https://t.co/vC7nJ09nnd
Iran Shifts Oil Payments to Yuan, Undermining Dollar Dominance
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
US LNG Demand Soars, Venture Global Expands Plant
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
Preparing Today for Next Week's Nifty Outlook
This is what we are going to do today to prepare for next week. Nifty outlook for the week month or year ahead. https://t.co/3heCkFAHQ1
Oil Shocks Lift Risk Premiums, Weaken Markets, Curb Inflation
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
Gold and Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rebound Begins
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
Five Years Renting Cost Him Higher Mortgage Rates
Rate were under 3% in 2021 and now over 6 What did 5 years of renting really get him
Gold Set to Outperform Amid Oil Crisis
Frank Holmes: Why Gold Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Oil Crisis https://t.co/1FnUMR2dSZ via @USFunds
Oil’s Gold Ratio Stagnates, Signaling Higher Resource Prices
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Gold’s Safe‑Haven Appeal Fading: Overlooked Factor Emerging
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
WOW. ANOTHER ONE. Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—striking their third deal in a month This week, Japan-based Hajime Construction agreed to buy Utah-based Wright Homes My latest for ResiClub: https://t.co/FgJwjNewbx
White House Admits Plan: Bomb Kharg Island Amid Hormuz Closure
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Buffett & Munger Reveal True Cost of Equity
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Markets Stay Optimistic Despite Unprecedented Oil Volume Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5 Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented...
Value Stocks Outperform Even in AI-Driven Market
Value investing is alive and well. The indices (S&P & Russell) have cap, sector and factor-selection biases that mask the performance of classic investment strategies. Buying a cross-sectional (sector-neutral basket) of cheap stocks has outperformed over time, and even during...
Mortgage Rates
Rate locks between 6.20% - 6.35% corrinadting with positive purchase application data and weekly pending sales all year long, so far, yes. At 6.41% today is the first day that pricing is above the September 17th, 2025 data point https://t.co/lqWqldYe3s
US Oil Prices Spike Above $99, Market Control Falters
US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up nearly +10% on the week. Once again, the US appears to be losing control of the oil market.
70 US Large‑Cap Stocks Up 30%+ YTD—Own Any?
attention all you who are decidedly negative and pessimistic... there are 70 large-cap U.S. stocks that are up more than +30% YTD... how many do you own? study the charts, learn to understand how to spot demand and supply inflection......
Q4 GDP Halved, Inflation Rises: Stagflation Hits Markets
The number Wall Street was dreading arrived today. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% — literally half the initial reading — while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%, its highest since early 2024. The S&P 500 responded by hitting...
War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Oversold Market Signals Upcoming Stock Rally
Challenging week with the unknowns but pretty oversold according to S&P Ocillator at -8. By the time we have the knowns I think stocks will be higher. $NOW $SNPS $NFLX $COF $DKS - a few gems on sale....
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, yet Yields Rise
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Waiting for a Crash Cost Buyers $400K
In 2010, homes in Vegas were $100K and people still said “I’m waiting for the crash.” Today they’re $500K…
Treasury Tapped Parallel Dollar Market, Used $2.5B, Made Profit
👀 💵Remember the fuss about Bessent conducting an ESF-funded fx swap exchange to support the Argentinian peso back in October 2025? We now have the details of those transactions via the quarterly reporting Congress requires for Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund operations. They...
Four Winning VWAP Wave Setups in Balanced NQ Session
5 setups. 4 winners. 1 loss. 🎯 Here’s exactly how I traded Friday’s balanced NQ session using the VWAP Wave System. Comment VWAP and I’ll send you the free VWAP Wave guide + Discord where we trade these setups live. #futures #vwap...
2026 Mortgage Rates Show Record‑Low 42‑bp Spread
Since 2000, the average year has seen an 87 bps range between the highest 30-year fixed mortgage rate reading in the calendar year and the lowest reading So far in 2026, that range has been 42 bps Lowest this year: 5.99% Highest...
QQQ's Flat Range Offers Multiple Strategies; Watch $591
$qqq gave many ways to navigate this monotonous range. $591 a big spot for next week https://t.co/4FSyWKL1cM
Oil Prices Dictate Yields and SPX Until $
Oil = 10yr = -SPX 1 variable market continued for another week and will likely persist until oil drops back below ~$70 when the Strait is back in business. https://t.co/349BroE6sP
SPY Holds Below 8/21 Weekly Average, Second Week
$spy weekly chart as we got out second week below the 8/21day. Look at some levels and read the language. Have a great weekend https://t.co/0t56sbE0UM
Investment-Grade Bonds Break Support, Signaling Market Stress
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
Verizon Drops Wireless Revenue, Merges Into FIOS
Friday afternoon 8K. $VZ no longer reporting wireless service revenue. Rolling FIOS into that line. So weak. #SchulmanEffect https://t.co/XRxvo6vwvp
States Tax Cars Where They’re Garaged, Not Registered
Let’s talk about the Montana car tax strategy. The idea is simple: Montana has no sales tax. So people form a Montana LLC, buy the car through the LLC, register the car in MT, and—poof—no sales tax. Is it legit? There...
Can Gold Reach $5,000 While DXY Stays Above 100?
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
Major Indices Poised to Break 200‑Day Trend
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have all sidled up to their 200-day simple moving averages. One good shove from here and the most prominent benchmarks for 'risk appetite' will break the most recognizable technical analysis cue. It would generate...
Early Cave Fill Repair Sparks Trend Day Upside
initial test reject turned into trend day UP after early AM cave fill repair....risk off across the board.... https://t.co/5r4D63LWjv
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Money Managers Snap up Corn, Fourth‑largest Weekly Buy
🌽HOLY. CORN. BUYING. Money managers in the week ended March 10 bought more than 140,000 CBOT corn futures & options contracts (the fourth most for any week on record). The resulting net long - 193,271 contracts - isn't even halfway to the...
QQQ Faces Crucial 200‑SMA Support Next Week
Daily $QQQ next week horizontal support meets 200sma, this would be lovely area for a bounce. And of course for bears, lovely area for a breakdown. Place your bets. https://t.co/CA9XF93VAc