QQQ Faces Crucial 200‑SMA Support Next Week
Daily $QQQ next week horizontal support meets 200sma, this would be lovely area for a bounce. And of course for bears, lovely area for a breakdown. Place your bets. https://t.co/CA9XF93VAc
SPY Poised for Year‑Low After
Last week breakdown of 20sma weekly trend $SPY, this week retest of underside (fail) and follow through down for likely will be lowest close of year. So clean. https://t.co/5zFCEMQ7b7
US‑Iran Conflict and Monetary Policy Dominate Next Week’s Market Outlook
It looks like we will be focused on two things next week: 1. The economic impact of the US-Iran conflict 2. Monetary Policy Look at the laundry list of central bank decisions on tap... All of them are expected to hold, but we...
Printing US Dollars to Revive Post‑communist Economies
They will print US dollars to rebuild economies after being ravaged from communism and tyranny.
ECB's Villeroy Says Rate Hike Not Timely Next Week
ECB’s Villeroy says it isn’t the right moment to raise rates next week https://t.co/fTpHRzxngU via @WHorobin https://t.co/zJ4KHlvUAN
Condo Market Softens, Cancellations Persist Into 2026
Condos are softer than the detached market. Cancellations have continued into 2026. Nothing at all like all-time highs in 2007, but this submarket is notably softer than detached homes. https://t.co/3krxTga2qS
ECB's Panetta: Private Sector Drives Cross‑border Payments
ECB’s Panetta says the private sector is key in cross-border payments https://t.co/dYdaPPXjLl via @Alemrome https://t.co/dkpP47DCou
Gas $5, Oil Spike Signals Higher Prices Ahead
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
EU to Suspend Duty‑free Sugar Imports for a Year
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Institutional Buying Doesn't Hike Prices; Building New Homes Lowers Them
It's not actually that complicated: 1️⃣ There's no evidence that institutional purchases of existing single-family homes drives up prices. 2️⃣ Institutional financing, building, and ownership of new single-family homes expands the housing supply and drives down prices.
Brent Backwardation Narrows at Front, Widens Overall
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
Block Ads, Protect Your Wallet From Unnecessary Purchases
The best money hack is becoming immune to ads trying to sell you crap you don’t need.
Ultra‑wealthy Exodus Leaves No Revenue, Boomers Get Breaks
There's not going to be a revenue base here after they drive ultra HNW to Florida and Texas and keep giving boomers property tax breaks.
DLO’s Fundamentals Soar Despite 64% Price Plunge
$DLO - Stock Price -64% 🔴 - EBITDA +595% 🟢 - Gross Profit +517% 🟢 - Payment Volumes +1,616% 🟢 “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Density Bonuses Outpace Inclusionary Zoning in Affordable Housing
It's a strange thing: density bonus laws have created orders of magnitude more affordable housing than inclusionary zoning laws, which evidence suggests may reduce overall housing production. Yet the latter remains more popular, I suspect because NIMBYs recognize its utility.
NVIDIA Closes Day as Final Trade on Halftime Report
Final Trade of the Day: NVIDIA $NVDA Discussed on @HalftimeReport with @ScottWapnerCNBC ➡️Link: https://t.co/plUVC5ZINY @cwp_advisor https://t.co/bSuQ9lp96Q
NAAIM Exposure Index Drop Signals Bullish Market
NAAIM Exposure Index down from 100% in mid-December to 67% in mid-March. Seems bullish to me! $SPX https://t.co/e0bywZknAH
Financing Rules and Lawsuits Have Halted U.S. Condo Construction
Over the past 20 years, America has basically stopped building condos. Owing to a mix of restrictive financing regulations and endless defect litigation, the most viable path to urban homeownership has largely disapprared. In my latest for @TheAtlantic, we explain...
USD Reserve Status Threatened If Commodity Contracts Fail
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
War-Driven Rate Hike Adds $130/Month on $600k Mortgage
For a $600,000 home, a borrower will now have to pay $130 more per month than what they would have paid the day before the war started when rates were 5.99%
FII Sell‑off Threatens Small‑mid Cap Recovery
FII's are selling "Ruthlessly" 👿 This is not a good sign for the market ❌ Continuous selling from FII's and Buying from DII's. But Without FII's, recovery is not possible in small and mid cap sectors 🚨 @champ_trader
Poland to Fund Program Using Unrealized Gold Gains
Based on what Glapinski said during his press conference two days ago, all indications are, as I expected, that the plan is to use unrealised gains on the NBP's gold to fund the programme. https://t.co/csre6RPhlr
Cliffwater Drama Yields Just $0.7B Net Inflow
While the headlines around Cliffwater have been apocalyptic, here's how fund flows are looking for Q1: - redemptions received: $4.5 billion - amount repurchased in tender: $2.3 billion - expected new commitments: $3.0 billion All of this drama for $0.7 billion of net...
Sector Returns Shift Since U.S./Israel‑Iran Conflict
here are the sector returns that i showed in the #WhereDoWeStand webinar today, with the % change from the start of the U.S./Israel vs. Iran attacks... https://t.co/1Ym7meMAVf
Copper Inventories Surge While Prices Hover Near Record Highs
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
Key ETF Innovations Ignored by Family Office Media
I follow a fair amount of family office and endowment content (email newsletters, conferences, sell side research) and the two biggest stories of the past year have had zero coverage: 1. 351 ETF exchanges 2. Low cost endowment and family office style...
Smart Money Pinpoints Buy Zone, Fair Value Gap Ahead
Perfect Buy Zone identified with Smart Money Concepts. Price swept liquidity from the demand zone and created a strong Break of Structure, leaving a Fair Value Gap for potential continuation. Discipline and patience always pay in the market. #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceAction #ForexEducation...
Three Timeframes Disagree, Average Points to 22,300 Bottom
Studying the Nifty50 chart in these crucial times. Today’s low came at 23112. Now the interesting part… each timeframe is telling a different story.... Daily chart suggests the bottom may be in. Weekly still hints some downside left. Monthly says the bear move may not...
Wheat Turns Green as Supply Concerns Drive Market
$WEAT Daily. Big red to green in Wheat so far today. Market taking supply issues seriously, coupled with most of Wall St. underweight ags. https://t.co/qBclTKMZNJ
USD Hits New Yearly High, DXY Targets 100 Break
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Surges to Fresh Yearly High – 100 Break at Stake DXY is now poised to mark the largest single-week advance since November 2024 https://t.co/c3SF8eEYBc $DXY Weekly Chart https://t.co/0hLHMw5pZH
Decoupling Gas From Electricity Prices: Reform Ideas
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
Markets Enter Regime Change, Not Crash, Amid Slow Repricing
$SPY at 2026 lows. Dow below 47K. The "buy the dip" crowd has gone very quiet. This is what a regime change looks like. Not a crash. Just a slow, grinding repricing of risk. https://t.co/p01B1V5aNG
NVDA's Valuation Collapsed—Last Chance Before Breakout
Nvidia made $68 billion last quarter. The stock is flat for 2026. The forward PE has compressed from 60x to 21x while the business tripled. On Monday, Jensen Huang takes the stage at GTC with what insiders say could be...
Extreme Fear Signals Imminent Short‑Term Market Bounce
Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear. Historically signals we're getting close to a short-term bounce. https://t.co/tN4YpIHB0E
Gold's Trend Line Test Signals Waning Safe‑Haven Appeal
$GLD testing a pivotal trend line. Even precious metals are struggling in this market. Safe haven no longer?
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Karat Packaging Posts Record Q4 Sales, Boosts Profit
Solid report from small/micro Karat Packaging $KRT, a specialty distributor and manufacturer of environmentally friendly, disposable foodservice products. A way to play the growth in food delivery businesses like Grubhub, Uber Eats, DoorDash etc and take-out. Has a small ongoing buyback. Fourth Quarter...
Manufactured‑housing REITs Already Outnumber Single‑Family Rentals
Prediction: We'll eventually see a wave of articles (followed by policymakers fretting over it) about "Wall Street" investing in manufactured housing. It'll be positioned as a "loophole" and/or consequence of the ban on single-family rentals. But it's not new at all. There...
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Linking CL and USO Time Spreads Reveals Arbitrage
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Intangibles Outvalue Factories; Investors Must Adapt
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Three Must-Own Stocks at Strong Support Levels
These 4 stocks are absolute no-brainers in their current position. 1. $SOFI at $18 - Massively growing digital bank. Insiders currently buying into support. 2. $NBIS at $116 - Best AI-Data center on the market. $NVDA investing billions, giving early access to their newest...