Decoupling Gas From Electricity Prices: Reform Ideas
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn gas & power prices for good https://t.co/H1QZemmPyG 1/8 https://t.co/SM9B27H1nD
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
Markets Enter Regime Change, Not Crash, Amid Slow Repricing
$SPY at 2026 lows. Dow below 47K. The "buy the dip" crowd has gone very quiet. This is what a regime change looks like. Not a crash. Just a slow, grinding repricing of risk. https://t.co/p01B1V5aNG
NVDA's Valuation Collapsed—Last Chance Before Breakout
Nvidia made $68 billion last quarter. The stock is flat for 2026. The forward PE has compressed from 60x to 21x while the business tripled. On Monday, Jensen Huang takes the stage at GTC with what insiders say could be...
Extreme Fear Signals Imminent Short‑Term Market Bounce
Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear. Historically signals we're getting close to a short-term bounce. https://t.co/tN4YpIHB0E
Gold's Trend Line Test Signals Waning Safe‑Haven Appeal
$GLD testing a pivotal trend line. Even precious metals are struggling in this market. Safe haven no longer?
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Karat Packaging Posts Record Q4 Sales, Boosts Profit
Solid report from small/micro Karat Packaging $KRT, a specialty distributor and manufacturer of environmentally friendly, disposable foodservice products. A way to play the growth in food delivery businesses like Grubhub, Uber Eats, DoorDash etc and take-out. Has a small ongoing buyback. Fourth Quarter...
Manufactured‑housing REITs Already Outnumber Single‑Family Rentals
Prediction: We'll eventually see a wave of articles (followed by policymakers fretting over it) about "Wall Street" investing in manufactured housing. It'll be positioned as a "loophole" and/or consequence of the ban on single-family rentals. But it's not new at all. There...
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Linking CL and USO Time Spreads Reveals Arbitrage
Yesterday's post on CL time spreads combined with this image of USO which has time spreads on the same underlying regardless of maturity (CL1) creates a fascinating circle to square. Anyone running the SEC/CFTC jurisdiction RV desk knows the fun...
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Intangibles Outvalue Factories; Investors Must Adapt
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Three Must-Own Stocks at Strong Support Levels
These 4 stocks are absolute no-brainers in their current position. 1. $SOFI at $18 - Massively growing digital bank. Insiders currently buying into support. 2. $NBIS at $116 - Best AI-Data center on the market. $NVDA investing billions, giving early access to their newest...
Conab Slightly Lowers Crop Estimates, Boosts Soybean Export Forecast
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Jet Fuel Prices Jump 85% Amid Middle East Tensions
This move follows a similar decision by Air India earlier this week, driven by a reported 85% surge in jet fuel prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Energy Surge Splits Market as SPY Hits 2026 Lows
Energy stocks at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. Chevron, Marathon, Valero ripping. Everything else bleeding. This is not a market. It's two separate markets wearing one coat. https://t.co/yJjS0g4dAU
Spring Inflection Turns Median Prices Negative
Here’s a look at median price change since last year. We hit an inflection point in the spring where the trend went negative. Of course, the median isn’t a perfect price metric, but other price indexes are telling the same...
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
Cambricon Announces First Dividend After 2025 Profit
Cambricon to pay maiden dividend after turning profitable in 2025 The Shanghai-listed chip designer will distribute a cash dividend of 15 yuan for every 10 shares, its first since listing in 2020 https://t.co/c1zpgVUBl1 via @scmpnews
Opening Bounce Gone; Mid‑590s Close Looks Bleak
most of the opening bounce erased. a close in mid 590s would be non bueno... $QQQ
MU Put Entry Strategy Unveiled with IUTraders Game Plan
$MU entry on puts @IUTraders and game plan -- sometimes you just have to ask ... 😎 https://t.co/aetAdrJh6S
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
Fed Stuck: Low CPI Hides 68% Oil Surge
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Meta Faces Clean Breakdown After Two-Month Consolidation
$META Daily. Meta going for clean breakdown from nearly two month consolidation. Below 200-day m.a. for nearly 1.5 months now, too. Market leader deteriorating https://t.co/XPwYgvP5rC
Small Caps Test Downside, CVNA Stalls at 300
Small caps led test reject to downside...even CVNA failed at big round umber (300🤣) Naz higher low on this flush down...consoldiation day after trend day yesterday? https://t.co/JGx6fqp9VA
India’s Post‑socialist Reforms Spark Rapid Modernization
India and Pakistan are a fascinating A/B test in modernization. After India threw off its socialist yoke, things really started accelerating. 2000 onward it’s a rocket ship. https://t.co/jBihDMGtl9
SOFI Faces Critical Test: Breakout or Breakdown?
$SOFI is squeezing between upside resistance trendline (6 days of rejections) and the support level around $17.15. Decision time for $SOFI is coming, will it be a breakdown or breakout?
Top Deepvue Leaders Surge Since March 9 Low
What have been the strongest stocks since the Mar 9 Low? Here are the top @Deepvue Leaders Names since that day: $HIMS $NBIS $DOCN $FSLY $FLY $SNDK $NIO $CE $BE $IREN $FIGR $CIEN $LEU $CSIQ $NXT $ANAB $AXGN $ADEA $PUMP $TSEM $FLNC...
Brent's Third-Month Futures Outperform Front-Month, Signaling Supply Risks
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco
Most Overlook Simple Rules: Save, Invest, Avoid Debt
Simple rules: save, invest, avoid bad debt, earn more, be patient—most ignore them. Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #buildtorent
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
Smart Strategies to Diversify Concentrated Stock Positions
My conversation with Wes Gray (@alphaarchitect) & Brent Sullivan (@TaxAlphaInsider) on how to handle concentrated stock positions. We cover: • 351 to ETF conversions • Tax managed long/short • Direct indexing • Exchange funds 🍎 Apple: https://t.co/8EyAQJRS2b 🍏 Spotify: https://t.co/2KzvgNXoiD 📺 YouTube: https://t.co/8ibUEisaZM
Cut Rents, Not Vacancies, in a Slow Market
Unless you’re angling to sell or refinance your building in the short term: If the rental market is slow, better to lower your asking rents than to accept vacancy or fill your building with people who will dishonor their lease obligations.
Soybeans Hold Above Upper Keltner, Bulls Supported
Haven't mentioned in for a couple of days because we have been trading so far above it. Upper keltner #soybean level 11.98 1/4. If not familiar with them that would be a level of support for the bulls...
Adobe's Stock Dip Driven by CEO Change, Not Earnings
My thoughts on $ADBE. Although Adobe shares fell -7.8% after earnings, the quarter itself was not as weak as the market reaction suggests. In my view, the decline was largely related to the CEO transition, which introduced uncertainty for investors. One point...
Rising Energy Costs Deepen Fragile Economic Crisis
👇Looking for the catalyst? And it was already a fragile economic environment before the recent spike in energy costs (which will compound these dynamics below) And well said @wesbury …
Oil Gains $30/Barrel as Hormuz Closure Persists
Happy Friday, oil watchers. We're now two weeks into the Iran War and crude prices are up ~$30/bbl. That's roughly a $3/bbl gain per day that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, a pace that I expect to continue so long...
Stocks Were Once Held for Years, Not Days
Im so old, I recall the average stock holding time period was several years https://t.co/bi8akmSzNq
Three Up Bars Signal Closing Above Early Range
3 bars UP off OP in SPs suggest market can close above first 30 minute range. https://t.co/05u0croh31