DAX Tests Below Weekly Low; EWG Holds Higher Low
Dax test reject below previous weekly low (continuation chart) EWG made a higher low. https://t.co/zWDrLFU0ru
SPX's VIX Sensitivity Drops to Unsettling Low
Beta of SPX to 1pt chg in the VIX has fallen to uncomfortable levels. Opposite in many ways to Volmaggedon where VIX was at depressed levels, but SPX showing almost no response to implied vol changes. https://t.co/zaPe03rueo
China’s JV Rules Succeed via Approval Leverage, Tariffs, Cheap Currency
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Week 12 VIX Peaks as Central Banks Hold Rates
Looking ahead to next week - we have a laundry list of central bank rate decisions (almost all holding) with critical forecast updates at a critical time - like the #FOMC SEC. Historically, the 12th week of the year is the...
Buying Now Equals Holding All Along, No Extra Gain
Wrong analysis. For example, If person sitting on cash invests on Monday then from Monday evening onwards he is in the same position as the one who was holding the same stock all through. There is no additional benefit in buying...
ADBE Spike at 255, Bullish if Holds Above
quick spike and failure in $ADBE at 255 (R3) i still like long side if above 250... https://t.co/HFatGcpjfY
ADBE Call Spread Fails, Roll Puts Down‑Out
$ADBE "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 13 Expiry 275/280 Call Spread ($2.85) and sell the March 13 Expiry 255 Put for 30 cents.' a bust, call spread will expire. Will need to roll puts down and out.
S&P 500 Slides to Three‑month Low, Quarter of Stocks Follow
first three-month low in the SP 500 since April '25 with 25% of stocks also hitting a three-month low as well. $SPX $SPY https://t.co/NwLD3rcyjO
Contribute Pre‑tax in High‑tax State, Retire Tax‑free Elsewhere
An easy tax arbitrage many people don't think about: Do a pre-tax 401(k) in a state with a high income tax vs withdrawing in a 0% tax state. Example - contribute pre-tax in CA/NY (say 10% marginal) but retire in 0% state,...
Cocoa Slides After Downward Spike, Consider Exiting
Cocoa: Easter Bunny came early this year...after a large STD move to downside, Wyckoff automatic rally up, now secondary test down for higher low or continue to base. Time to walk away... https://t.co/RHZIpfSdak
Crude, VIX, Bitcoin Surge After US‑Israel Iran Attack
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Manhattan Apartment Supply Declines Two Years Straight
A sobering trend: #Manhattan apt inventory dropped every month for 2 years running. Building boom fails to stem tide of rising demand. 'Construction expanding but it's been uneven by boro' #NYC #realestate #CRE #multifamily #condo #mortgage https://t.co/a0FkHCJC3x
Government Policies, Not Investors, Drive Unaffordable Starter Homes
While Congress wrongly attacks institutional housing investors, my latest @opinion column explores several of the govt policies that actually increase US home prices and make building a "starter home" impossible today: /1
Analysts Predict Future Hikes Already Passed
A hallmark about most fancy analysts, including many I respect, is that they don't appear to be filling up at the gas station. Most of them talk about future price hikes in the coming days, not realizing that they have...
Time Horizon, Not Volatility, Determines Investment Risk
The biggest risk in investing isn’t volatility. It’s a short time horizon. Worst S&P 500 annualized returns since 1928: 1 year: -44% 5 years: -13% 10 years: -2% 20 years: +2% 30 years: +8% The longer you stay invested, the smaller the risk of a bad outcome. https://t.co/E6zeCB4Ir8
Rising Oil, Yields, Dollar Boost Crash Risk Ahead of OpEx
Market Crash Risk Odds Have Increased $SPX $VIX #crudeoil #10Y #USD All eyes on rising oil, yields & dollar... for increased pressure on equities... before or after OpEx is the big question... https://t.co/fgfY8OJ2nm
Price Returns to Upper Range After V‑Test Rejection
$ back to upper end of range....bit of a V test reject above this level last night. https://t.co/BV67dxBemK
BTC Rises Amid Panic as Gappers Surge
Focus last few days in @IUTraders Gappers ✅ $IBIT nice gap over $41 $COIN over $200s $MSTR $143s Notable relative strength - while market was in panic $BTC has continued to build as bombs fly. https://t.co/akFdaHFIYy
T‑CRUT Bypasses 10‑Year Rule as IRA Beneficiary
As a non-person entity, the T-CRUT is not subject to the 10-Year Rule and can be designated as the IRA beneficiary while naming the original non-spouse beneficiary as an income recipient of the trust and a charitable organization as the...
Trader Leads as QQQ Jumps $6 Pre‑Market
here we go again... trader getting a headstart on the day $QQQ already up $6 from pre-market low. https://t.co/oIsC4P3rox
Understanding Multi‑Asset Funds: Purpose and Differentiation
Loved to discuss multi asset funds with @Shiprasorout on the concept, what they are intended for and how they differentiate themselves:
U.S. Defense Secretary Says No Clear Evidence of Iranian Mines
US Defence Secretary Hegseth says there is "not clear evidence" that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
XLF Tops Jan, Slides Below Yearly Pivot, Eyes 41.93
$XLF is the 1st sector to confirm that it made a major top in January. The reason for that is that XLF has already closed below its yearly pivot at 50.96. The 1st yearly support is at 46 but it...
Switch to an S‑Corp, Save Up to $20K
Most coaches and creators focus on getting to $10k/month. But nobody talks about what happens after you get there. You: Hit $100k/year as a solopreneur. Congrats. The red sea parts and you finally see through the looking glass... Then... You realize you're paying 15.3% in...
VIX at 28: Uncomfortable Middle Signals Slow Damage
$VIX near 28. Not panic. Not calm. The worst place to be — the uncomfortable middle. Panic capitulates. Calm is stable. The middle is where real damage gets done slowly. Watch this number. https://t.co/hPhtbG45FE
Core PCE on Target; Headline Inflation Eases Below
January Core PCE prints at 3.1% as expected - previously 3.0% y/y Headline PCE prints at 2.8% vs 2.9% expected- previously 2.9% y/y
Friday the 13th Fuels Ongoing Market Volatility
Again with Friday the 13th! And no love in the vol complex as we head into the weekend. https://t.co/x0OcW7xE6R https://t.co/eLS7V3zlfE
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Market Outlook Turns Grim for New Entries.
My "Pre-flight Checklist" (which was developed years ago w/ the help of my good friends and fellow CMTs @DKellerCMT & @DavidCoxRJ) helps me get a quick, but comprehensive look at the markets each day... ...and it's looking pretty ugly right now...
S&P Rebounds From Low, Eyes 6740 Resistance Amid Hawkish Fed
$SPX hit a 6636 low Monday and bounced to 6670, and now we’ll see if early strength holds or fades with 6740ish as resistance. #FOMC is the next move as the Fed turned more hawkish with inflation and higher...
IBIT + Short Call Matches STRC’s 11.5% Yield
One last comment on $STRC as I am bored of the whole thing and happy just owning long $IBIT Over the next year you could own STRC and get 11.5% yield. Or Go long IBIT and short ATM call and collect...
Fibonacci Extensions Converge, Stalling S&P 500 Near 7,000
If you're wondering why all the congestion in the S&P500 below 7000, there's a series of Fibonacci Extensions clustering together all around the same prices: 6958 = 161.8% 2025 Tariff Tantrum 6965 = 261.8% 2022 Bear Market 6899 = 685.4% 2007-2009 GFC https://t.co/9SPYN6lg6A
Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average
BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F
Suspending Jones Act Could Lower U.S. Fuel Costs
"What the Jones Act does and how a Trump suspension could affect fuel prices" https://t.co/goGJwDm2EN https://t.co/s2CTtPeu6A
Adapt Fast: Quad3 Yield Breakout Signals Immediate Action
In today's Early Look: "#Quad3 Bond Yield Breakout" The Signaling Process that I built changed. I changed with it. When lightning hits the golf course, do you want to debate last Tuesday's forecast — or get off the fairway? https://t.co/pZVQzeHQXQ
Dollar Nears Breakout, Taming Global Import Prices
While everyone focuses on volatile oil prices, the dollar is nearing a breakout higher. An appreciating dollar tightens monetary policy outside of the US and helps tame import prices. Many other implications as well. https://t.co/69NGmJLCB1
Quiet Markets, Massive Week: 7 Central Bank Rate Decisions
Markets are quiet today but there's a BIG week ahead with 7 central bank rate decisions including the Fed Here's my take on it all 👇
Crude Steadies, GBP Sinks, JPY Nears
Crude is consolidating despite the war showing no signs of relenting. Disappointing UK Jan GDP pushes $GBP to the bottom of G10 fx today. Proximity of JPY160 turns mkt cautious and $JPY is faring best. See https://t.co/Xdwqs68Eew https://t.co/aB4Tekr0wK
Retail Investors Hit Pause, Showing Persistent Fatigue
JPM on Flows: Retail investors showing signs of ‘persistent’ fatigue - Investors have “pressed pause” on buying, with weekly purchases dropping 30%, and ETF inflows dropping 22%. - “For the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness”
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Age‑Based Stock Rule Costs More Than 60/40
Most investors follow a rule nobody ever properly tested: subtract your age from 100, put the rest in stocks. A new Yale study finally ran the numbers. Following that rule costs the equivalent of 2% of lifetime consumption. A static 60/40...
Oil Futures Can Hedge Inflation Swaps via Energy CPI Component
Curious ? Inflation swap traders. Do you do partial arbitrage on inflation swaps using long dated oil contracts? For instance if receiving inflation do you sell CLM6 and buy CLM7 given that 8-20% of the cpi basket is...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
UST Yields Signal Bullish Curve Breakout, Review Ahead
UST Bond Yields signaling a Bullish TREND Breakout, across the curve - will review on The Macro Show https://t.co/MUbXHcltNR
Hedgeye Stays Short as IDX Falls 13% Monthly
Macro Pros @Hedgeye remain short Indonesia in $IDX terms Down another -3.0% overnight, collapsing -13.1% in the last month alone #GoAnywhere https://t.co/Ny66xrqpv3
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Israeli Tech Thrives Amid Geopolitical Risks, Says CNBC
"I wouldn't say business is as usual, but the Israeli tech economy keeps on ticking." Here is half of my CNBC interview with Sara Eisen on Israeli resilience, Iran risk discount for Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and much more....
Wealth Comes From Holding, Not Just Buying Better
The “Holding Power” Rule Why In Gurgaon, The Rich Don’t Always Buy Better — They Hold Longer Most people think wealth in real estate comes from: • better location • better builder • better timing But NCR history shows something else. The biggest fortunes were not made...
Thai Baht Slumps: Highest Energy Trade Deficit in Asia
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.