Brent's $47 Swing Shows No Conviction, Just Exposure
Brent crude has traded in a $47 range since late February. $73 to $120 and back to $96. That's not a market. It's a seismograph. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure.
Earnings Options Skew
Earnings lottos 3/12/26 Adobe $290 Calls 255 Puts RBRK $63 Calls $48 Puts ULTA $682 Calls 597.5 Puts I don’t love em but let’s see what we got
Brent Crude Set to Climb $3+ Daily Amid Iran Tensions
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja
15 Metric Tons of Silver Withdrawn From SGE, SHFE
Around 15 metric tons net of physical Silver was drained from the SGE & SHFE Silver vaults today.
Tesla's 20‑day vs 200‑day SMA: Breakout Imminent
Do or die $TSLA downsloping 20sma holding it down, 200sma holding it up. One will break soon. Place your bets. https://t.co/csbOJugLZu
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Semis Outperform Software in AI Trade, Driving Massive Gains
The AI trade that’s separating Wall Street’s winners and losers: semis > software It helped power $100mln+ in gains for a Point72 PM and helped convince the manager of a 23-year-old hedge fund to call it quits https://t.co/zUWC9pfB3X
JPMorgan’s $6,300 Gold Target Signals Dollar Weakness
J.P. Morgan just raised its gold target to $6,300. When the biggest bank on Wall Street tells you to buy the hardest asset, maybe the dollar story isn't as strong as you think. https://t.co/Rt7VeK8qHJ
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Eos Energy’s Ambitious Targets Clash With Execution Lag
Eos Energy Enterprises ⚡ 🔋 🇺🇸 $EOSE +244% 3Y 🟢 -61% 3M 🔴 🔴 🔴 - Non-Existent Margins - $702M Backlog - 116% 2028 Revenue CAGR - 234% 2028 EBITDA Increase - Demanding Valuation - 33% Below Consensus Price Target Strong outlook, but execution has struggled. Can the company deliver...
QQQ Stalls Below 21‑EMA, Seeking Higher Low
$QQQ. We've been unable to break above and hold the 21ema Was expecting expansion given the tight closes and we expanded to the downside. Can we finally form a higher low? https://t.co/CDUK1fALp5
Diesel Spikes 32%, Threatening Higher Consumer Prices
Gas prices are up 22% in the past month, but that's for regular unleaded. Diesel is up 32% -- and that's a pass-along price that can impact what we pay for lots of goods.
Today's Oil Prices Are Modest by Historical Standards
Over the past 25 years anual average REAL TERM Brent oil prices were > $100/b in six separate years and were >$150/b four of those (2008, 11, 12, 13). So by historical standards, today’s oil prices aren’t particularly high yet.
Buffett Chooses Stocks Over Real Estate for Liquidity
Investing legend Warren Buffett explains why he often prefers the stock market over real estate. Stocks can be bought or sold in seconds, while real estate deals can take months of negotiations. A powerful lesson in value investing, smart capital...
Avoid These 5 Habits to Stop Staying Broke
5 steps to guarantee you stay broke: 1. Trade time for money permanently 2. Lifestyle creep 3. Limiting or wrong beliefs about investing 4. Buying things to impress others 5. Waiting too long and loosing compound interest
Methanex Surges 9% as Buyers Snap up $65 Calls
Methanex (MEOH) up over 9% now with buyers 2850 April $65 calls $2.10 to $2.45 The research works .. https://t.co/MV0sW89wl4
Early Input Pricing Shields Farmers Amid Iran War
Friend of mine that runs a large agricultural operation just texted: "We locked in pricing for farm inputs late last year & early this year before the Iran War started, which is good because now our suppliers will not even provide...
Global Oil Prices Affect U.S. Consumers, Regardless of Policy
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
EncorEstate Introduces Standalone Special Needs Trust for Advisors
This is a challenging spot, because if you don't outright specialize in clients with special needs children, most advisors may only come across these scenarios once or twice in a career, and won't necessarily have a good network of attorneys...
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
BBB Spreads Tighten Since February, Still Well Below Past Peaks
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
Oil Prices Ignored Reserve Supply News, Already Priced In
Oil didn't buy the "supply of reserves" news. Why ? It was already priced in. What's next ? Well , it's a 🧵 1/1
Gas Prices Surge 20.6% in 11 Days, Historic Rise
The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded...
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
S&P 500 Historically Bottoms Each March 12
Over the past past 20 years, the S&P 500 has bottomed for the year on March 12th. Today is March 12. https://t.co/1JGQH2gnm2
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
Testing $200 DKS Roll: Will It Hold?
$DKS for the $200 roll lets see if it sticks/holds over this time. Still own full + paydays
Air
$APD Daily. Air Products another chemicals play, besides $DOW $LYB charts we noted yesterday, thriving given supply constrains in Middle East. Falling channel breakout https://t.co/aeAMmA94lv
Ozer, King, Barclay Funds Profit Amid Iran‑War Volatility
Hedge funds managed by Ron Ozer, Doug King and Steve Barclay are the latest to have notched gains last week from the commodities volatility in the wake of the Iran war, even as many larger peers suffered losses https://t.co/i6JQcHoHZK
Dollar General's Earnings Beat Sparks 20% Two‑Hour Surge
🚨DG (dollar general)🚨 This was one of the quicker trades we’ve taken lately (20-25% in 2 hours and closed) The reason why I knew to scale in? ✅ company just double beat on earnings this morning ✅ company has a projection price target of...
Volatility Strategies Open to Retail via Free PDF
Jane Street, AQR, Ren Tech... All use volatility. Retail was locked out... until now. A 327 page PDF was just released. For free:
U.S. Used Cooking Oil Imports Collapse 82% YoY
📉U.S. UCO imports fell off a cliff to start 2026. U.S. imports of waste vegoils (including used cooking oil) dropped to a 3+ year low in January. Volumes were down 82% from January 2025 and no imports were recorded from China...
Nasdaq 100 Approaches 200‑Day SMA, 2nd Small
The Nasdaq 100 is staring down its 200-day SMA just like the Dow and S&P 500. Notably, the index is sporting its 2nd smallest 6-month range (as a percentage of spot) on record: https://t.co/D3FuDpSJFh
Master Industry DD in 5 Minutes with Three Key Questions
A 5-minute industry DD framework for any new ticker: ✅ Geography: Is the competition local or global? ✅ Entrants: How high is the "Wall" (Barriers to Entry)? ✅ Profitability: Why is it what it is? (Cyclical vs. Structural) If you can't answer the questions...
60/20/20 Beats Traditional 60/40 with Gold, International
It has been my thesis for the past 5 years that the “new” 60/40 is more like a 60/20/20. To illustrate this the chart below shows that a hypothetical 60/20/20 portfolio, allocated as noted in the chart, could have sharply...
LWLG's New Deal Sparks Bullish Sentiment, Potential Short Squeeze
$LWLG having itself a day after inking a new agreement. Still a young company with a ton of execution risk, but near-term sentiment is bullish. 8% short float..could trigger a mini short squeeze if volume increases.
BoE May Delay Expected Rate Cut Next Week
Could the Bank of England defer a possible rate cut next week? https://t.co/f0T8D0P94L #GBP #FOMC
Russia Rakes Up $150 Million Daily From Oil Surge
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
Accelerated Buyback Could Boost $RELY Long-Term Price
Since you have a lot of free time on your hands now @matt_oppy, I would suggest running some quick numbers (can even have Claude do it for you) on what an accelerated buyback program could mean for the long-term share...
Feb 2026 SAC:
How did homes sell compared to their original list price? Here's a way to show that. Anything above the 0% line went above, and anything below went below. FEB 2026 SAC REGION Above: 30.7% Below: 56.0% At Original List Price: 13.3% Any thoughts?
US Crude Surges 10%, Volatility Predicted Hormuz Closure
US crude #oil is up nearly 10% - second largest day's rally for the commodity in four years. Looks like the implied volatility was giving a portentous signal ahead of time. It wasn't like the closure of Hormuz was surprising news......
Industry Flow Boosts Mosaic Calls, Buying Momentum
Mosaic (MOS) 9100 April $37.5 calls buy 1.05 as these names keep going The power of industry-wide flow trends
XLF Suffers 13% Drop, Second Biggest in Three Years
Just over a 13% drawdown for Financials $XLF Second largest in the past 3 years. https://t.co/E1aBc2ZqVe
Hormuz Disruption Could Persist for Up to One Month
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
GBP/USD Bears Test Key Support for Seventh Time
British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Bears Charge Pivotal Support for a Seventh Time https://t.co/S0r6Spt5dp $GBPUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/HERuBmlZ9Y
Circle ($CRCL) Stands Out Green Amid Red Momentum Portfolio
It's a sea of red across the momentum portfolio today, one of the few green standouts is Circle hanging tough $CRCL https://t.co/2fGzV4CD5u
Renewables Become Only Viable Exit Amid Global Energy Crisis
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
Mortgage Payments Up $1,300 Monthly Since 2021
A $500K mortgage was $1,900/month in 2021. A $500K mortgage is now $3,200/month. $1,000+ more each month for the same home.
Rio Silver Poised for Production, Attractive Buy at $85/Oz
Rio Silver $RYO.V $RYOOF Great buy opp setting up here on Rio Silver with Silver still trading at $85/oz and the company going into production by year end ... https://t.co/FCYB1X4WaD