Why Heirs Might Decline Inheritance and How
Most people would find it hard to turn down “free” money, whether it’s finding a $20 bill on the sidewalk or getting a match in a company 401(k). However, the decision of whether to keep or disclaim (all or part) of an inheritance can be a trickier matter, involving factors from tax considerations to family dynamics. Read why heirs may disclaim an inheritance and how to properly do it, and more in this week's edition of Weekend Reading: https://t.co/ljXk08G4N0
CDNS Shows Bullish Trend Ahead of Earnings
$CDNS reporting Monday night, trend-inflection triggered the week before last, MACD went bull, 6K Aug. 400 calls bought 4/21, size June $290 and $300 calls bought in OI, member write-up on 3/10 https://t.co/msFif2WBqo
Trump's 2025 OBBBA Boosts Itemizers to 12%
Thx @PKubeyEA for the gift article. Trumps's 2025 OBBBA increased IRS #tax itemizers from 10% to 12%. "#Taxpayers who qualify for new and enhanced deductions in the tax law may end up with even lower effective rates.""Play around with it...
Structured $100 Portfolio Guarantees Bounded Losses
I manage my wealth this way in general and I am positioned this way within this framework today 101 I take $100 of cash And invest in DSSmart Beta which is always long global stocks bonds, gold, and commodity indices. ...
Nvidia’s Market Cap Now Exceeds Japan’s Economy
$NVDA is once again larger than Japan @augurinfinity (and this with the Nikkei at record highs) https://t.co/ML48sWPOad
Keep Expenses Steady, Save Extra Earnings
Important one Gentlemen, ‼️ Don’t make the mistake of increasing your costs when you start to earn more money. Rather keep your expenses the same and save the difference instead.
SaaS Valuations: Growth Premiums Vary Widely
Not all SaaS valuations are expensive. Looking at forward P/E vs NTM revenue growth gives a cleaner view of how the market is pricing expected growth across SaaS. $PLTR stands out as one of the fastest growers at roughly 62% expected growth,...
Iran Seizes Two Container Ships, Undermining GCC Trade
Iran. Seizes two container ships. Where were they headed? Primary cargo? Hurting GCC. Not grabbing tankers.
Invest in Few ETFs, Stay Long‑term, Use Tax‑advantaged Accounts
5 principles to follow to become a successful investor: > no individual stocks, 1-2 ETFs only > stay invested regardless of media clickbait > have a long term mindset > invest consistently > prioritize tax advantageous accounts Anything you would add?
Hyperscalers Issue $110bn Debt, Exceeding Forecasts
BofA: Hyperscalers have issued $110bn in debt so far in 2026, sharply above forecasts https://t.co/aIc0cIvDl0
Chemicals Bottleneck Triggers Massive Price Hikes Ahead
Lots of attention (rightfully so) focused on all that oil stuck in the SoH. But there's massive amounts of chems stuck as well. And even if the strait opens tomorrow, these ships will be the last to pass. Listen to what...
Dated Brent Falls to Futures, Disproving Manipulation Myth
I hear endless stories that the futures market is manipulated. It's an urban legend. Easiest way to debunk this is to look at Dated Brent versus futures. The gap has closed significantly due to Dated Brent falling towards futures not...
Three Hidden Mistakes Sabotaging Your Forex Success
You're not losing in forex because of your strategy. You're losing because of 3 mistakes you don't even realize you're making I break them down (and the psychology behind each) in my new video 👇 https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH https://t.co/CUUqbHmejH
New Put/Call Histogram Enhances Timing Precision
This weeks session adds an additional timing indicator for perfection - the Put/Call Histogram on StrikeMoney
Oil Won’t Hit $150–200; US Iran Blockade Proving Effective
Here's my discussion with @paulkrugman from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade...
Equity Risk Premium Remains Positive: Stocks Outperform Bonds
S&P 500 equity risk premium (earnings yield minus the 10yr TIPS yield) is still solidly positive... stocks are a better buy than bonds. @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/JAZ7YxWZqN
Brent Surges 60%, Fuel Shortages Hit Global Markets
This week will bring a drumbeat of physical shortage stories. Here's the deal. Brent is up 60% from before the war. That's more than 3x the rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The SoH is 3x Russia's oil exports to...
Invest Fully, Skip Cash When Companies Outperform 5%
Francois Rochon on being fully invested "If we continue to find companies that we believe can do five percentage points better than that on an annualized basis over many years, why would we hold cash?"
Dollar's Surge Temporary; Peace Deal Could Cut 3%
The Dollar has risen sharply due to safe haven inflows, but as soon as we get a peace agreement, those flows will reverse. My best guess is that the Dollar will fall immediately by 3 percent on such an agreement....
RMI: The Ultimate Repeatable Momentum Indicator
The RMI is the best measure for momentum trading we have developed, based on our multi-time-frame execution process, which is repeatable across time frames and securities. Once you understand and master this, there is no looking back. Get the RMI...
NYC Housing Crisis Narrative Turns Any Dip Into New Panic
You can bet, though, that after 40 years of the “crisis” of rising house prices and rents in NYC, the minute they even hint at falling, that will also be a “crisis.”
Nvidia's Market Cap Surpasses Every Nation Except China, Japan
Nvidia just closed at a new all-time high, now worth over $5 trillion. That makes $NVDA larger than the entire stock market of every country in the world except China and Japan. https://t.co/so0LQl6eh0
Trim AI Winners, Shift to Undervalued Cyclicals
Macro: AI narrows rally; key: Magnificent Seven drive S&P; risk: frothy AI valuations, delayed cash flows; insight: trim AI-winner exposure and reallocate to underpriced cyclicals. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Starmer Credibility Dip Fuels Gilt Short‑sell Recommendation
Starmer faces credibility hit after Mandelson appointment; civil service strained, governance risk ahead of local elections may lift GBP and gilt volatility. Trading insight: sell short gilts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Small Caps Remain Only Safe Haven for Fundamentalists
Ricky Sandler on closing his fund 👇 I guess small caps are the only safe haven for fundamentalists. Or so we hope... https://t.co/MOkIZVNNQs
German Households Pay over 30c/kWh Despite Low Spot Prices
Good Morning from Germany, where households are footing the bill for the energy transition. The benchmark 1y-ahead power price is back near €100/MWh, or 10c/kWh, even though spot prices briefly turned negative. Add 23c in charges and levies, and households...
Downgrade Exposes Weaknesses in China’s Credit Ratings
Caixin: "A sudden downgrade of a state-backed financing vehicle in eastern China is exposing weaknesses in the country’s credit rating industry, raising concerns over hidden risks in the local government debt market." https://t.co/HjgmNQTIdy
Average Returns Mask Market’s Emotional Rollercoaster
On a spreadsheet, an 8% compounded return looks like a smooth, peaceful ride. In the actual market, that 8% is an average over multiple years that may have felt like the end of the world at times and like "why...
Low Momentum, Value Tilt Leaves TCAF Underperforming
TCAF’s factor mix keeps me skeptical. Low momentum + value tilt = a tough combo in this market. Returns have been mostly disappointing relative to the risk. FactorInvesting
Rupee Slides 4.5% YTD, Hits All‑Time Lows
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The rupee has depreciated ~4.5% this year. Despite the RBI’s ongoing intervention, the rupee continues to visit ALL-TIME LOWS. Remember what Oscar Wilde wrote: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.”...
China Could Replicate Eurodollar Model for Global CNY
1/8 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen. https://t.co/OoBlDvaenX
Yield Curve Signals Growth Concerns Amid New Inflation Data
Treasury yields are shifting as traders digest fresh inflation data and Fed signals. The 10-year is moving on growth worries. Keep an eye on the curve for clues on what’s next. 📉💰 BondMarket
Global Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Amid War Drawdowns
⚠️Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS: Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since February 27, to 7,864 million barrels. Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war stand at 474 million barrels.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/global-oil-inventories-are-heading-toward-an-all-time-low
U.S. Diesel Exports Surge to Record High in April
🔥After jet fuel exports reached a record high in March, U.S. diesel exports are now hitting a record high in April.
Weekly S&P 500 Overview: Tech, Cyclicals, Global Growth
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm https://t.co/E8W2wyPwfe This week: technical check, seasonality snippets, fund flows, semiconductors, market froth at the top, cyclicals, global growth, emerging market equities... https://t.co/VkeqMQTomr
Keep Winners, Trim Concentration, Avoid Puts Pre‑Earnings
"How should I position my portfolio before Fed week and Big Tech earnings?" Saw this on Reddit twice Here's the framework: - Don't sell winners (you're paying tax to dodge a maybe) - Trim concentrated positions over 15% of book - Don't sell puts on...
Tech Surges: Day 18 Outperforms Since 2009
Here's the magnitude of the tech outperformance on day 18 relative to past lows including '09 $ES_F $XLK https://t.co/H2qomw2O5h
Spot Real Signals, Not Retroactive Expert Noise
My best investing advice is: “Pay notice to which experts gets it right and who gets it wrong” - aka identify signal and noise and stop wasting time and money on noise. Pay notice to which experts thought: - There was an AI...
China Eyes Power of Siberia 2 Amid US Hormuz Threat
🔥🔥🔥Here, form September 11, 2025: "If you look at it from a Chinese point of view, it's not Iran who is going to close the Hormuz Strait. It's the US who is going to close Hormuz Strait, and therefore they...
DWP’s Algo Strategy Offsets 401k Fees, Boosts Returns
DWP handles 401k rollovers into self-directed IRAs and charges AUM fees. What offsets that is a proprietary algorithmic trading strategy layered across four candlestick timeframes. Back tested five years, worst year was 6%, best year over 60%. Other custodians like...
Existing Homes Dominate Inventory; New Builds Stay Under 120k
One thing to remember, new construction, just nationally speaking, rarely gets above 120,000 completed units for sale. Even in 2008, it never reached 200,000, even though we had 4,000,000 active inventory. The majority of all inventory comes from the existing...
Customize and Retune Strategies to Stay Ahead
Two important factors when trading systematically, and I'll use my Weekend Trend Trader strategy as an example. (1) It is important to personalise a strategy and make it your own. Any strategy in the public domain tends to have its edge...
Defying Morgan Stanley: Gold Set for $6‑7k Peak
Morgan Stanley just cut its gold price forecast for the rest of 2026 from $5,700/oz to $5,200/oz. I DISAGREE. I stand with my prediction that gold's secular bull run will peak out at $6,000-$7,000/oz. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/alphqydMk9
2005 Bankruptcy Reform and 2010 Qualified Mortgage Laws Revolutionized Lending
2005 BK reform law, notice all the BK filings before the law went into effect. Then add the 2010 Qualified Mortgage Law on top. Those two laws changed everything forever https://t.co/2gnt1ETE2e
Early Backers Pay Off as Checks Grow
checks are bigger at @maniacvc now. grateful to the founders who let me in early with smaller ones. flywheel works.
Trump Pushes China Into Sanctions Ahead of Summit
Target Isn’t Just Iran - Trump Wants China To Submit Too https://t.co/QS77FdK6Yx Hengli, a private oil refinery in China, in US crosshairs… sanctions of size right before the Xi-Trump Trade Summit meetings mid-May. Not subtle.
AI Hedge Funds Offer Trend Factor, Not True Edge
The bull case for AI hedge funds is they will tap into a trending factor that works, that shows some outperformance relative to the index That’s the easier game to play as well. “Pure factor constrained alpha shop” across many...
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Pick Roth if Future Taxes Exceed Today’s Rate
Roth vs Traditional 401k is all about taxes. Say you are in a 32% marginal tax rate and you put $20k in Trad 401k. It doubles to $40k, which is $27.2k after taxes Same example, but contribute $13.6k to Roth (after 32%...
Managed Trade Is All Washington Can Expect From China
Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, said managed trade was the best Washington could hope for given that Chinese leaders were “not going to put their hand on Mao’s Little Red Book and swear that, ‘We’re not going to be...