Trump Bought Just 20M Barrels Amid Low Oil Prices
It's pretty amazing that the Trump administration only bought 20MN barrels of oil given oil averaged in the low 60's.
Steady Boring Business Beats Chasing Quick‑rich Trends
Have a lot of friends who hopped around to get rich quick Tech during the run up, private credit All late, pretty much none of their equity ever materialized Better to just run a business in a boring field where you’ll get rich...
Commodities Get Wilder When Retail Traders Bet Puts
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Corn Rises, Soy Falls: Money Flow Drives Momentum Trade
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Flexibility Makes the 4% Rule Truly Foolproof
Hot take: no one has ever run out of money using the 4% Rule. Why? Because, in the real world, people are flexible. During a market crash, no one is going to increase their spending by inflation because "the rule said...
Weakening Breadth Signals Deteriorating Market Momentum
Ok...let's do some thinking this morning. The "Bull Case" was breadth being strong. The "Bear Case" was Momentum, Risk On vs. Risk Off, Credit Spreads, Defensive Leadership.... Now breadth has weakened and the other variables have only gotten worse.....
USD Dips as North American Session Begins
$USD trading a little softer as the North American session gets underway. Be prepared. https://t.co/d5zBeuqizV
Home Inventory Slumps to 1.29M, Far Below Historic Levels
After this week's existing home sales report. Let's do an inventory checkup, today we stand at 1,290,000. Historically, it's been between 2-2.5 million; it was 4,000,000 in 2007. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Oil Prices Now Reflect True Disruption Risk
What happens with oil prices is all about whether risk premia are accurately priced. Initially, markets were massively complacent. Then there was all-out panic. Now, at between $90-100 per barrel, we're accurately pricing risk of a serious disruption... https://t.co/evJVri93wZ https://t.co/EZteEvaeo1
Iceye Revenue Doubles to $294M, Targets Another Double
.@Iceye 2025 financials: Revenue doubled, to $294M, & will double again this year; $153M in operating cash flow; EBITDA over $176M; $1.76B in backlog. https://t.co/FaGdnli5TX https://t.co/IqCzJ853gK
ATM Vol Premium Over Tail Hedge Signals Market Tension
At-the-money implied vol ($VOLI) normally trades at a premium to tail hedge ($TDEX). Makes sense. Both are elevated for obvious reasons. Folks agitated about the Middle East. This chart needs to repair itself before spooz can resume their cruise. @Nations_Indexes...
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...
Yen Hits Intervention Threshold, MoF Faces Decision
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
1970s Food Shocks Outpaced Energy Crises, Says White
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks" -Simon White, BBG
ALFA Climbs 9% Despite AI Fears and Dividend Cut
#ALFA hit 9% although the FY Results read very well. ShareScope has fwd p/e 19.4 RISING to 19.8 and fwd Divvy 2.6% FALLING to 0.9%, BEFORE drop today. I guess AI fears are hurting but ALFA claim AI will help...
SHFE Silver Inflows Surge to Two‑Month High
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
Shanghai Gold Premiums Stay Firm, 14% Above LBMA
$97.7/oz in Shanghai vs. $85.64/oz in London premiums in #china remains firm, trading 14.1% above #LBMA benchmark
Most Hedge Funds Suffer, D.E. Shaw Stands Out
Last week's pain: Citadel’s Global Fixed Income fund and Taula are among the hedge funds worst hit by last week’s market turmoil, while D.E. Shaw & Co.’s two main vehicles were a rare bright spot in the industry. Here's all the latest...
India VIX’s Low Level Signals Complacency Amid Global Tensions
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Alamos Gold: Undervalued Mid‑Tier Leveraged Pick
. @AlamosGoldInc $AGI top pick ~1M oz by 2030, low-cost North America ops, falling AISC, net cash funding growth, undervalued vs peers. Best mid-tier leverage to gold.
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
Bull Put Spread Bets Nifty Stays Above 23900
Opened a 23900..23800 bull put spread on Nifty (17 Mar expiry). >> Sold 23900 PE @ 304.75 >> Bought 23800 PE @ 231.85 (hedge) Net credit 👉 ₹72.9 View is simple: Nifty should expire at/above 23900....Structure wise this means I'm short gamma near 23900,...
German 10‑Year Yield Hits 2023 High Amid Inflation Fears
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
Renewables Can Replace LNG Faster than EVs Replace Oil
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Work Hard, Find Mispriced Bets, Bet Big Wisely
“It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it—who look and sift the world for a...
Europe Repeats 2022 Energy Tactics Amid Fossil Dependence
Energy policy déjà vu in Europe. Oil reserve release. Gas price cap debate. State aid on the table. The toolkit looks like 2022 because fossil fuel dependence remains. Renewables and electrification reduce exposure. Crisis management does not. https://t.co/PhWMbn21b8
Goldman Predicts Brent Spikes to $98, Then Drops to $71
Goldman > Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average—before falling back to $71 by 2026Q4.
Buy Silver Above $90, Target $95‑105
Silver near $85.7; VC PMI & Square-of-9 point to $93–95 then $105. Risk: break $90, target $95–105 🔺 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
Sony Trades at 13x EV/EBIT Before GTA 6 Launch
Sony at 13x EV/EBIT ahead of the GTA 6 release on 19 November 2026 https://t.co/FBeFJ5c7Bp
Strategic Reserve Release Too Slow to Offset Deficit
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but people should know: For the 400 million barrels of oil to be released from strategic reserves (announced today), the flow rate — the rate in which it can be released — is...
Consistent Dollar‑Cost Averaging Beats Market Timing
This circles back to investing consistently through Dollar Cost Averaging in a low-cost passive index fund that tracks the market. Remember, "Time in the Market, Beats Timing The Market." 📣 https://elmads.com/?p=4958 — The Power of Cost Averaging Investment Strategy
Oil Reserve Release Merely Patches Deep Supply Shock
>> Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a gaping supply shock https://t.co/C6DC07LD19 @ronbousso1
Iran Continues Massive Oil Shipments to China via Hormuz
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
Four Catalysts Shake Malaysian Markets: Pensions, Auto Price War
Malaysian markets are waking up to four massive catalysts today, March 12, 2026. From a highly anticipated pension fund payout to a brutal foreign price war eating into domestic auto profits, the landscape is shifting rapidly. Here is what institutional watchers are...
Latin America Appeases US, Banks on Chinese Cash
NYT op-ed: “For years, Washington’s Latin America policy has oscillated between neglect and alarmism…The result is a region that has learned to nod to U.S. concerns while quietly cashing Chinese checks.” https://t.co/fuVrwW6AHG
Trump Releases 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
Given the Trump' Administration decision to release 172 mb form the SPR, this is a must watch (from November 2022)
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China Escalates to Immediate Refined Fuel Export Ban
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
Oil Rebounds to $100, Heralding Broader Economic Shock
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
Quarter‑billion Barrels Lost From Hormuz Shutdown
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
Markets Brace for Extended Oil Shortage Despite IEA Release
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
South America: Untapped Resources Fuel Historic Transformation
South America: A resource-rich and still largely unexplored region undergoing one of the most significant political and economic transformations in its history. https://t.co/jXGUJd5RMi https://t.co/uc8dlJv1f5
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3