Private Credit, Not AI, Holds the Real Risk
5 Months ago....and seeing it play out well with OWL puts and plenty of other exposed names
Hormuz Closure Could Redefine US‑Iran Power Balance
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
Oil Above $100 Forces Nationwide Price Adjustments
Oil prices sourced to $120 a barrel on Sunday before dropping to $104. As Billy Bob Thornton notes in this TV clip, at $100+ per barrel, "every product in America has to readjust its price"
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
New Investors Learn Bonds Drop in Turmoil
it's kind of neat, in all seriousness, to think that there is a whole new crop of investors that are growing up "knowing" that bonds sell off during uncertainty, volatility & turmoil... while many (not just the grey among us)...
Urea‑to‑corn Price Ratio Hits Near Post‑Covid Peak
The ratio of urea to corn is nearing its worst levels of the post-Covid inflation. https://t.co/2Eazf7LmiV https://t.co/O3bgdlViKO
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
Record Put Skew Raises Risk of Downward Spiral
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
Cliffwater Blames Sentiment Amid $33B Fund Redemptions
Another one. Cliffwater facing 7%+ redemptions on their $33B fund. Their response: “Sentiment is driving the selloff more than fundamentals.” That’s what they all say. Right before the gates go up.
Bull Markets Gain More Than They Lose
Wave 2 retraces 50–61% of the length of Wave 1. Wave 4 retraces only 38% of the length of Wave 3, and then you get Wave 5, which is typically the same length as Wave 1. What does all this mean? It means...
No Strategic Urea Reserve; Buffer Storage Nearly Nonexistent
Not only is there no strategic urea reserve, if you listen to today's episode, you'll see there really isn't much buffer storage anywhere at all https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
4 Simple Ways W‑2 Employees Can Lower Taxes
Tax time: The time of the year where your eyes pop out of your head, wondering how you could be paying so much to the government. Fear not, there are SOME things you can do to reduce your tax burden. Yes,...
Soybeans Hit 11‑Session Overbought Streak, RSI 85
📈CBOT November soybeans pushed higher on Wednesday, ending at $11.63-1/4 per bushel and marking their 11th consecutive session in overbought territory (RSI of 70+). Relative strength index has reached 85. Last time new-crop bean RSI was 85+ in year of expiry?...
US Price Lag Could Shrink, but Strait Closure Threatens Economy
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
Distressed 9x‑levered PIK Bond Faces Buyer Vacuum
Just curious, but when you have an 11% PIK, cov-lite bond on a corporate that’s 9x levered, who’s the logical buyer when there is forced selling?? Like can this go from 99 offered to 10 bid in a single trade…??
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
Hold Index Funds Through Volatility, Not Market Predictions
Buying and holding index funds through highs and lows is a great strategy. But i bet if you saw this chart in 2013- You would've guessed the market is about to crash.
Small Losses Demand Disproportionately Larger Gains—Protect Capital
A 10% loss requires a 11% gain to get back to even. A 20% loss requires a 25% gain to get back to even. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. A 90% loss requires a 900% gain...
Japan Leads Largest G7 Emergency Oil Release
Thank you to Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan for her and the Japanese government’s support for the largest ever emergency oil stock release by @IEA Member countries to address the disruptions in the market
Market Still Trendless—Avoid Overtrading in the Chop
Your daily reminder that we’re still in a trendless market at the index level. Don’t spin your tires too fast trying to force trades within the chop fest. https://t.co/T9j49HfLtq
EUR/USD Bears Target Multi-Month Support, Breakdown Looms
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Bears Assault Multi-Month Support - Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/jTs8wu6sOj $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/GCs2UbCZkL
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Price Spikes Cause Pain, Not Physical Shortages
Price spikes will hurt a lot, but they're the luxury position--much better to have pump price pain than outright physical shortages, as will be suffered by much of the developing world. This is how you guarantee shortages in this context. https://t.co/jRUy3woUSl
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
30 Billion Barrels Ready to Counter Hormuz Price Spike
Awesome. This is exactly the policy we need. By my analysis, we can get these 30 billion barrels of refined petroleum products to market in the next few days, which will really help mitigate the price spikes from the closure of...
Renting $1.2M Home for $4k Shows Overvaluation
It's even worse than this guy makes it seem. If someone rents out their "$1.2M" home for $4k/month, that's the all-in cost (property tax, insurance, maintenance, etc.) So, the mortgage would have to be even LESS than $4k/month, valuing the home even...
High VR
Fat VRPs but think vega is here to stay. as risk if risk premium here to stay..time spreads look decent https://t.co/IpY830RswR
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
Mag7 Support Break Could Trigger 10% Market Correction
If the markdowns continue for equities, then the Mag7 will likely break support (below). That could be enough to turn what so far has been a 4% SPX drawdown into a more bona fide 10% correction. We can see from the...
Your Surplus Determines Wealth—Create an Income Gap
Your surplus is your biggest wealth building tool. Without a gap between your income and expenses, you’ll always fall behind. Here’s how to analyze your surplus: 0% or negative: You’re simply not making enough income. Work on increasing your income. 1% - 14%:...
Consumer Staples Face Pullback, Premium Erodes
Consumer staples getting some of that premium knocked out of them over the past week. If you wanted a pullback you're getting it. $XLP https://t.co/ro0tAusmFy
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Save on Groceries and Gas with Club Cards
If you’re a mom concerned about grocery prices (or anyone, really), I can’t emphasize enough how helpful it can be to get that savings club card at your grocery stores & get that Costco card. And if you live in a...
Chile's Right‑Wing Turn Signals Lithium, Copper Market Shift
Big implications for #lithium and #copper markets... Chile is a major global producer of both #criticalminerals.
Market Dips, yet Front‑end VIX Futures Being Sold
Despite 9 of 11 US sectors showing red, someone out there is selling the front end of the VIX futures term structure. https://t.co/Wr7rXuRzOu
New County Data Shows Minor Variations Across Eleven Regions
Fresh stats. Some differences, but nothing too crazy. Eleven other counties on my blog today. What stands out to you? https://t.co/6HKzLYqDvO
Kazakhstan Boosts OPEC+ Output, Iran War Cuts Exports
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Athletes Flee UK Over Heavy Tax on Prize Money
I'm in the privileged position of having many pro athletes as clients and friends. Many have thrown up their hands and decided to leave the UK. As a professional golfer for instance, £1 million in prize money is treated...
Small and Mid Caps Ultra‑cheap, Primed for Multi‑year Rally
Valuation dispersion is extreme. Small and mid caps are producing strong earnings but trading at crisis-like valuation discounts. This is still one of the largest valuation gaps in decades. * Mid caps trade 21% cheaper than large caps * Small caps trade 26%...
Trump Doubts Iranian Mines, Urges Tankers Through Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he didn’t believe Iran was laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked Wednesday whether Iran had laid mines in the strait, Trump told reporters, “We don’t think so. Trump also urged oil companies to send their...
Diesel Spikes 96¢/Gal, Straining U.S. Supply Chains
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
STRC’s 11.5% Yield Halves FIRE Retirement Timeline
We have discovered corporate bonds. If you take on more risk, you get a higher return wow
US Government's Crude Short Roughly $10 B Margin Equivalent
I currently estimate the notional size of the crude oil futures short the US government ends up putting on to be roughly whatever $10 billion in margin gets you. Attached tweet unrelated.
U.S. Home Sales Hit 2009 Low; Buyers on Historic Strike
Home sales just dropped to the lowest level since 2009. Down 35% from pandemic peak, and by 25% from pre-pandemic norms. This was the 2nd-worst February reading in the last 30 years. Traditional news outlets tried to claim there was...
Price Alone Misleads; Focus on Earnings Power
I’ve been bullish on $AVGO for years, and it has continued to perform exceptionally. The temptation of every investor is to look at a stock that has performed this well and simply assume the opportunity has passed. But the reality is that...
VWAP Acts as Dynamic Support in Strong Trends
Oil volatility is back 🔥 One VWAP Bounce this morning paid before 8AM. In strong trends, VWAP becomes dynamic support, not mean reversion. Most traders fade it… Professionals buy the pullback. Comment VWAP and I’ll send the free guide + Discord. #trading #futures #vwap
Large and Small Caps Show Strong Earnings Growth Differently
According to @Nasdaq, large caps and small caps are both seeing strong earnings growth — but for very different reasons. @GuyAdami and @DanNathan discuss on today's @mrktcall https://t.co/Q95mKW3icS https://t.co/dgdG2u5mGW
Oracle's AI and Cloud Metrics Signal Robust Demand
Oracle’s core AI and cloud numbers and backlog tell a very healthy and robust AI Revolution demand story,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a note Tuesday. https://t.co/KpVRCqKYn4 @CNBC @CNBCtech 🏆🎯🐂
US Ethanol Production Surges, Inventories Hit Four‑year Low
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production last week hit 1.126M barrels per day, the third best weekly volume on record. However, ethanol stocks declined on the week to 25.6M barrels, which is actually the week's lowest reading in four years. https://t.co/kJtuRESZcN