Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much this year. No second round effects in food and core either. 1/2
2026 Housing Trends: County Data Shows T
The housing market so far in 2026? Let's talk about it. Today, I have fresh stats for twelve counties and some new price visuals to help interpret what is happening. I also talk about my favorite phrase, "all ships rise...
Oracle's $553B Backlog Shatters AI Slowdown Narrative
Oracle ($ORCL) is up 10% today. Cloud infrastructure grew 84%. But the number that actually matters isn't in any headline: $553 billion in contracted backlog, up 325% year-over-year. Enterprises writing multi-year checks for AI infrastructure during an oil shock, geopolitical...
Saudi's Strategic Oil Storage Shields Global Supply
◾️Saudi Arabia deserves more recognition for its prudent, forward-thinking approach—strategically prepositioning oil in storage facilities around the world to hedge against potential supply disruptions. ◾️What @AlexLawler100 missed in this story is going back to previous reports to see that...
Fertilizer Stocks Surge Despite Oil Price Pullback
Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure. https://t.co/r6Y5yIn6hu
United's Turnaround Inflated by Manipulated Base Year
Leaked United Internal Slides Boast A Stunning Turnaround — But The Deck Uses A Convenient Base Year To Make The Gains Look Bigger - View from the Wing https://t.co/u1peHq3h9d
Future Prices Defy Norms: Oil Options Expose Gamma Paradox
Today's "Future prices are not like other prices" by @ByrneHobart is an outstanding preamble to tomorrow's moontower titled: oil options and the raw gamma paradox 🛢️🧩 a post that sniped me from whatever i planned to write about Byrne's post is free: https://t.co/ekmCXjtQQ1
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Credit Market Unease Signals Risk‑off Pressure on Stocks
IG credit not happy in here (LQD/IEF) and that tends to be risk-off for equities. https://t.co/M9wDvl27Od
Spotting Single-Print Cave Fill on Market Profile
This is how the single print cave fill area looks on Damon's market profile charts where he is working this live... @DamonPavlatos https://t.co/mGAgEsHYQ4 https://t.co/zoRmbEuifu
Flat SPY Signals Indecision, Not Stability, Ahead
$SPY has gone nowhere in 3 weeks. Stuck between headline rallies and overnight selloffs. Range-bound markets after a shock aren't stability. They're indecision before the next leg.
Buy a Home Only When Absolutely Certain and Financially Ready
Whether to buy a home is like deciding whether to have children. You should be 100% sure you want one and that you can afford to maintain it.
AUD/USD Bulls Target 7200 as Resistance Falters
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Resistance Under Siege – Bulls Eye 7200 https://t.co/Z4xmadvNgr $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/GZy1mBhw92
Donate Shares, Secure Home, Redefine Wealth
💰 Personal finance links: donating shares not cash, understanding your home insurance, and why wealth is more than just money. https://t.co/bdDm8cuhWn image: https://t.co/Erm8sUw9Vp https://t.co/BfNyG6Ndyd
Prioritize Index Trend Before Making Trades
The index trend matters first. Understand the trend and make trades based on that trend.
Turn $304K Debt Into $1M in 7 Years
My wife and I went from $304k in debt to $1M in 7 years. Here's how we did it in 30 min/mo:
Rate Pressure Drives Treasury Yields Higher
Tplex: Rate complex under pressure UST 10 Yr Notes 4.20% +6.5bp's Dimes 112-00+ down 14/32's
QQQ Faces Resistance at 615, Support Near 572
$QQQ resistance on underside of 20sma, so needs to get over 615. Support near 572. Tons of noise in between. https://t.co/pyLqnAyrf6
Oil Poised Above $102 as Pattern Confirms Bullish Move
Interestingly, crude oil is up after the IEA reserve release. If this head and shoulders pattern on the near term charts plays out, we are looking at oil back above $102 a barrel. https://t.co/WA4Ceo89fg
Short-Term Bearish Bias Targets SPY’s 200‑
Until that supply and trendline taken out bias short term with bears towards 200sma $SPY https://t.co/C6tM7zhQhj
SMH Holds Above 20‑Week SMA, Bullish Outlook
So far so good $SMH against 20sma weekly support. Fantastic tell going forward even if you don't trade SMH https://t.co/Q73Q72lzBz
Ireland Cashes $6.6B Pharma Tax, Fuels US Investment
Clever marketing by Ireland. Most of this is private investment that would have happened anyway. And trivial compared to the tax gains Ireland is reaping from US firms -- Eli Lilly disclosed tax payments to Ireland of $6.6...
CPI Meets Forecasts, Rate‑Cut Outlook Hits Low
Both US headline and core #CPI for February were both in-line with expectations and previous: 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Nevertheless, expectations for FOMC rate cuts through this year are the lowest since May 2nd (-30bps). That won't make Trump happy... https://t.co/9kJhHgDilS
Lilly's Market Cap per Employee Rivals Tech Giants
One fun takeaway from my Lilly story: looking at $LLY from a market cap/employee ratio. Far more in line with tech giants like $META $GOOG $MSFT than pharma peers like $MRK $AZN $PFE: https://t.co/pVIADCH8AU https://t.co/FJE8JLIrmO
SaaS Giants Trade at Sky‑high EV/Sales Multiples
15 Most expensive SaaS stocks by Forward EV/Sales $PLTR — Palantir — 51x $NET — Cloudflare — 26x $APP — AppLovin — 21x $CRWD — CrowdStrike — 18x $FICO — Fair Isaac — 15x $AXON — Axon Enterprise — 13x $SHOP — Shopify — 12x $DDOG —...
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Rising Taxes Trigger Housing Supply Surge, Fuel Doom Loop
if you keep increasing the taxy levy without real benefits, eventually new supply (some forced) comes into market and lowers price, which then increases the tax rate burden as a % of asset that makes it very unattractive this is the...
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Top Traders Use Five Setups to Manage Risk
These are the setups of the best traders I’ve interviewed: Catalyst Gaps Base Breakouts Mean Reversion Long Mean Reversion Short Pullback/Undercut & Rally They allow you to manage risk versus a key level/turning point where you can expect significant expansion from your entry
Supply Surge, Not Weak Demand, Drives Rent Cuts
Here's a crazy-yet-telling apartment stat: Among the top 15 markets CUTTING rents, they collectively had 2x more demand (absorption) than the top 15 markets INCREASING rents. Why? Because it's all about supply, not weak demand or affordability etc. Among the top 15 markets...
Broadcom Undervalued AI Play Targets $460
Check in – Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Recommendation: STRONG BUY Price: $342.58 Intrinsic Fair Value: ~$450 (anchored on 25–27x 2026E EPS ~$17.51) 12-Month Price Target: $440–$460 (Base, +28–34%) Current Signal: TACTICAL BUY Entry Zone: $325–$335 (50-DMA support pullback) Fair Pricing: AVGO trades at 19.7x forward EPS amid 57% guided...
TSMC Strong Buy: Target $430, Entry $340‑355
Check in – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) Recommendation: STRONG BUY Price: $352.59 Intrinsic Fair Value: $428.00 (Based on consensus & AI-driven growth models) 12-Month Price Target: $430.00 (Base case aligned with analyst avg ~$418–$470) Current Signal: TACTICAL BUY Entry Zone: $340.00 – $355.00 (Near 50-DMA...
DE Shaw Funds Outperform, Adding Brevan Howard, Verition
DE Shaw’s hedge funds gain in a brutal week for multistrat peers. Flagship Composite fund gained 0.3% during the week to lift returns to 2.8% for the year through March 6. Macro-focused Oculus made 2.2% to boost gains for the...
Surcharges Delay Relief From Falling Gas Prices
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
Big‑Box Spaces Pivot to Fitness, Pickleball, Entertainment
That empty big box store in your shopping center might not become another retailer. Fitness, pickleball, and entertainment concepts are taking over second-generation retail space as goods retailers shrink. Landlords are repurposing boxes instead of waiting years for another anchor. Still marketing retail...
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
Nasdaq up 6%; Shift From Small‑cap to Big‑tech Shorts
Nasdaq outperforming Russel by +6% since this. Would start to exit the small cap underperformance theme and rotate back to the big tech short theme, although both probably struggle together from here. https://t.co/H7964lBBpH
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Treasury Prices Plummet, Rates Surge, Bear
$TLT Monthly. Treasuries have gone down in virtual straight line (and rates up) since initial launch on Iran two Fridays ago. Long-term still strongly bearish. Risk of wipeout https://t.co/0SPsw7B88t
Diesel Price Surge Forces Costs Onto Retailers and Factories
"Record Diesel-Price Surge Hits U.S. Truckers, Retailers and Manufacturers" https://t.co/5jBpvH4MCa "Most large trucking companies will pass the added costs on to American stores and factories..." Fortunately, US factories aren't already facing soaring costs, so it's fi- oh. https://t.co/ZU45kzcUbj
Earnings Gap Propels Oracle Calls 119% Gains
i picked up a few $ORCL 4/17 $175 call options yesterday before the close & the pending earnings report... amazing how fast option prices can move with a ~+13% gap in the stock this morning... the calls i bought for...
Seek Tight Consolidation, Avoid Hard Reversals at Key Levels
Yesterday we had overal consolidation action ( with some fades from highs) after the big Monday reversal up Today what would be constructive would be more tight/sideways action or ideally strong reconfirmation. We don't want to see stocks reverse hard at key...
Investing Made Simple: Open Roth IRA in Minutes
It’s never been easier to invest. You can literally open a Roth IRA in under 5 minutes, contribute $100, and buy fractional shares of ETFs with ZERO fees. Or sign up for your 401k and contribute 3% or 5% or 10% of...
Energy's S&P Share Drops, Hedge Disappears
"In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. At 3%, that internal offset has all but vanished." Jeff Currie of @OneCarlyle
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
SPs Triangle Signals Potential Break
SPs formed 3-bar triangle ...can move in either direction. Below support is "cave fill repair zone". Still a steady pattern of lower highs. Blue line shows a volume node (multiple times trading through 6808). A push back up through...
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG