Stocks Stay Green, Oil Barely Rebounds After Recovery
After the big recovery yesterday, and the headline that we got since Trump's comments, it's interesting that stocks are still green, and that oil hasn't bounced very much
December Crude and Corn Futures Poised Below $55, $4.60
Massive Short Cleansing or New Bull Market? Crude May Follow Gas - The invisible hand can be quite efficient in autocorrelated commodities, and crude oil and corn producers may have just received a chance to hedge and bring on more...
Top Hedge Funds Lose Hundreds of Millions in One Week
Some of the world’s biggest hedge funds known for their steady returns suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in losses last week: Millennium down 1.5b, Baly -3.5%, P72 -1.1 and MW Eureka -3.7%. initial estimates https://t.co/Vtq6iPL4ik
December Corn Caps Near $5 Amid Rising Stocks
Did December Corn Peak Near $5? Corn's $5-a-bushel ceiling may have solidified due to the Iran war. When December corn (Dec26) began trading in 2022 at about the same price as on March 9 near $4.85 a bushel, US ending stocks...
Hedge Funds Keep US Gas Bets Low After Iran Attack
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers had cut bullish positions in U.S. natural gas to the lowest for more than 18 months before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Even after the attack and the closure of the Strait...
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European Gas Prices Plunge 17% After Trump’s Market Reassurance
European gas prices drop after Trump’s effort to calm the market 📉📉 Dutch TTF futures fell as much as 17%, the biggest intraday decline since 2023 Prices had been steadily rising over the last week following the closure of the world’s largest...
Re‑entering
we piled back into gold stocks $XGD $GDX yesterday on the RSI(5) oversold pullback in both absolute and $TSX $SPX relative uptrends... https://t.co/9Vc1oUmaJs
Markets Rebound Amid Wild Volatility, More Turbulence Ahead
Recovery day of a sort. Markets up 1%+, Rupee down to 91.87 from 91.22, Crude down to $91 from the crazy 119 levels yesterday and so on. Incredible volatility here. Should expect more, just a sign of the times.
Diesel Prices Jump yet Remain Below COVID Highs
Diesel prices have surged, but still far lower than the peaks set during COVID https://t.co/WJoutp3QcO
Export Routes Matter More than Production Amid US‑Iran War
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
East-West Pipeline: Aramco's Final Buffer Against Hormuz
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from...
Energy ETFs Edge Out Tech Over Five Years
fun fact: energy stocks $XLE beat technology $XLK stocks in % returns in the past five years... $XLE +116.1% $XLK +114.8%
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil Past $200
HOW OIL COULD SURGE TO $200 AND BEYOND @tracyalloway and I talk with @Rory_Johnston -- typically one of the least-alarmist people in oil -- about how the longer the Straight of Hormuz is shut, the greater the likelihood of an...
Iran Conflict Sparks Volatile WTI Oil Prices
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀? West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) has recently shown erratic price movements following the military conflict involving Iran. Oil has long been a critical commodity supplied by the Middle East. Because of the geopolitical tensions that...
Taiwan, South Korean Retail Investors Hold Leverage Amid Iran‑War Selloff
Retail investors in Taiwan and South Korea largely held on to their leveraged positions during a selloff spurred by the war in Iran, signaling resilient appetite for two of Asia’s tech-heavy markets. https://t.co/FyZ7tSbXVy
China Prioritizes Iran's Energy Over Regime Politics
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...
China's Economic Surplus Outpaces Global GDP Share
One of my better charts -- shows China's surplus relative to global GDP. Has had a big impact I think ... https://t.co/xkL0hjBjP1
G7 Energy Ministers to Discuss Oil, LNG Amid SPR Debate
G7 energy ministers are scheduled to hold a video call (involving the IEA too) today to discuss the oil and LNG markets. Yesterday, G7 finance ministers flagged a potential use of the oil SPR. Japan and several other north East...
2026 Energy Crisis Spurs Shift to Solar and EVs
Oil shocks and crashes: Where are we headed with the 2026 crisis? #oil #solar #EVs https://t.co/YJR9ZPQIRR https://t.co/TQRdwm55nX
Europe's Energy Weakness Undermines Euro Compared to Peers
Europe's energy vulnerability is contributing to the euro having a worse war than its peers, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/D2PXb56w3z via @opinion https://t.co/aIh2l1QXUy
Lennar's Q4 Incentives Jump to 14%, Outpacing PulteGroup
Q4 2024 incentives rate: Lennar —> 10.0% PulteGroup —> 7.2% Q4 2025 incentives rate: Lennar —> 14.0% PulteGroup —> 9.9%
Six‑Dollar Crude Swings Signal Market Instability
This may be tame relative to Monday’s insanity, but let’s just be clear that $6/bbl intraday crude price swings are not the sign of a healthy or settled market. https://t.co/n5HX62ltNm
Turned 13% Short Spike Into 10% Long Gain
Caught a 13% move on the short and then 10% the long off the afternoon lows. Pretty good day, now time for bed.
Australian Fuel Prices Spike Amid Middle East Conflict
Fuel jumped up $0.60 cents a liter overnight in Australia because of the conflict in the Middle East. It’s now $2.40 per liter. How much do you? Wonder if this will become part of the ‘new normal’ and if it’s...
Trump Team Weighs Easing Russia Oil Sanctions to Lower Prices
March 9 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to help cool a surge in global energy prices triggered by the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran... according to three sources familiar with the...
Caught Both Sides of Vol
Pretty wild to catch both sides of that expected move in a single session. Might be time to leave the rest of this volatility rodeo to the cowboys. $OIH $OIL $USO $XLE $XOP https://t.co/c9YzDXraIF
Oil and Silver Futures Reclaim $80+ Levels
Oil and Silver Futures cross back over in the $80's. Can't make this kinda stuff up if you tried. April Crude $85+, May Silver $89+
WTI Crude Hits Record Intraday Range Since Pre‑Lockdown
#Oil’s wildest day ever? Excluding the period when the world was in lockdown while Corona, yesterday marked the largest intraday trading range in history for front-month crude WTI. https://t.co/3P4EB6ZrZ3
Rohm's Drop Highlights Hidden Deal Complexities
Why is Rohm (6963) down hard after popping so much the past two days? I wrote about it over the weekend. 1) It SHOULD be up. The approach reveals the value of the SiC biz. 2) It makes a lot of...
Watch BYAH: 7x Volume, Break 2.70 or Skip
7x relative volume here on $BYAH in after-hours, weak 8pm close but still worth keeping on your radar. Will only begin to watch this if it can coil underneath & break over it's key 2.70 daily level. As always, no break...
Scale × Duration Determines Energy Disruption Impact
“Scale x Duration” the formula you need to understand any energy supply disruption. In the case of Hormuz Scale: the scale is large, 16-20 million barrels per day of crude oil. Duration: ~10 days and counting?
Iran Now Cast as Oil‑flow Villain; Markets Act Calm
JUST IN: Classic turning the tables. Now Iran will be the bad guy for doing anything that hinders oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is trading Tuesday morning as if the war is over. The proof will be in...
Xi's Poverty Victory May Be Unsustainable, Underestimated
FT: “The question is whether the victory that Xi boasted of is sustainable, or even borne out by reality, and whether China, the country that has lifted more people out of indigence than any other…is now underestimating the poverty.” @WillLangley96 https://t.co/G1ef9EpU5D
QQQ Money Flow Index Ultra‑Oversold, Bearish Slide Likely Over
QQQ: The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022 bear market lows. Most of the bearish move is likely in.
Asian Markets Rally, but Volatility Warns Fight Isn’t Over
Massive sigh of relief playing through in Asia: Equities higher, oil significantly lower Tuesday. Note of nuance: - US assets have reversed direction from the Monday close - VIX futures up in Asia Tuesday - USD (safe haven recently) just turned higher We...
Oil Surge Prompts Trump to Reevaluate Jones Act
"Oil Prices: Crude's Wild Day Has Trump Rethinking the Jones Act" https://t.co/YKhaomLkrd For the record, it's technically not "trutherism" if it's - you know - the actual Truth. https://t.co/7CZuzc3gja
WTI Crude Plummets 24%, Speculation Unwinds
Crude Oil WTI Plunged by 24%, Back Below $88, from $116 Overnight. Gasoline Futures -16%. Manic Speculation Unwinds. The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts. https://t.co/uWAJTgQkXb https://t.co/EdZk8SVqd6
BPI's Long-Term Appeal Threatened by Rate Cuts
BPI feels like a long term winner. Then again, the Bangko Sentral is lowering rates and NIM compression should follow
He’ll Keep Oil Above $100, Not Below $80
My 2-cent take — he’ll try to jawbone to keep oil below $100, but he won’t deescalate to bring oil below $80 (to the extent he’s really in control here anyway). And the oil floor probably keeps going up while...
VIX Spread Collapse Signals Extreme Market Stress
Carnage in the short-vol trade. The Mar–Apr $VIX futures calendar spread collapsed through -$2, printing a > $2.50 weekly range and a -$3.18 low. That’s roughly a 6σ move, meaning the probability was at ~0.0000002% Translation: the volatility complex violently flipped into...
Blue Origin CEO Unveils New Stock Options After Criticism
A week ago I sent some questions to Blue Origin about its "monopoly money" stock options program. An hour ago, CEO Dave Limp tells the company they're launching a new stock options program. https://t.co/nNipz4qTtQ
Oil Slides as Hormuz Transits Expected to Ease War Impact
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Trump Overestimated Oil Surge After Strike Decision
President Trump said that he knew oil would go up if he went forward with the strikes...and it went up less than he thought. That's wild. How high was he expecting?
Screen Out 95% of Stocks with Six Simple Metrics
Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks: Revenue growth 12% Shares outstanding <2% Net debt to FCF below 5x Free cash flow growth +15% Return on Invested capital +15% Earnings per share growth +15%
Mortgage Intent Index Peaks Highest in Over Two Years
A great dataset I recently got access to: Xactus Mortgage Intent Index. Xactus processes credit pulls in the mortgage application process. The index is based on actual apps. It is highly correlated with the Altos weekly pendings data. Now at highest...
USO Gaps Remain Unfilled, Signaling Potential Bullish Move
$USO.. don't count oil out yet... didn't even fill the gap.. could be a bullish sign...+6% from the day's low @stockcharts More from me: https://t.co/AEHbNDK3Qe https://t.co/329u34lpLv
WTI Crashes 10% to $85.52 After Comments
Oil plummeted on these comments West Texas Intermediate slumped as much as 10% to $85.52 a barrel, after climbing to nearly $120
Oil Market Sees Historic $35/Bbl Intraday Plunge
No doubt a day for the oil market history books. Nearly $35/bbl of intraday crude price chomp is wild. And this is far from over yet. https://t.co/nrgOddtT5n
Chase Durable ROIC, Not Just Growth
"Durable ROIC is the economic signature of a high-quality business". Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase durable ROIC. 📈 Return on Invested Capital tells you how efficiently a company turns capital into profits—and the durable part is what separates great...