RBOB at $2.52 Signals Potential Gas Price Decline
RBOB $2.52.. is that print right? Oof... gas prices may actually fall from the current AAA average... https://t.co/37XEXRl4Ts
Historically Cheap Gas at $4/Gal Sparks Expected Complaints
$4/gallon gas is extremely affordable, historically speaking.. it's really not a big deal.. but there will be lots of whining (if we get there.. looks like we could top out around $3.80) Chart from Jeff Weniger at @WisdomTreeFunds https://t.co/VHUBGSZ7jG
Oil's Massive Move Shows Perfect VWAP Trend Day
🚨 Oil just woke up. Biggest weekly move since the 1980s Then another 12% move today. Perfect trend day structure: 📈 Momentum leg 📉 Pullback to +1 VWAP deviation 💥 Buyers step in 🚀 Continuation higher Those were clean PDC trades all day. Pulled 6K trading CL today. Comment VWAP...
Energy Stocks Stay Resilient Amid Wild Oil Swing
Wild. A $35 swing in oil prices in one day. Smells fishy... Oil and gas stocks held up remarkably well despite all this. A reminder that silver experienced similar volatility and is now settling at levels well above any point in...
2026 Geopolitical Turmoil Drives Global Oil Price Swings
The geopolitical rollercoaster that is 2026 continues and is impacting global oil prices. #canada🇨🇦 #canada #trade #energy
Inventory May Turn Negative YoY by Early April
Inventory has a shot of being negative year over year by the end of March or the first week of April if the seasonal increase doesn't happen soon. https://t.co/yYspHxEdvu
WTI’s Strongest January Start Since 1983
WTI crude oil's best start to a year on record... well it was... (NYMEX futures begin in March 1983) @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/TPJ8psJtdo
Smooth RMD Withdrawals with Rolling Three‑Year Averages
Modified RMD: Utilizing Rolling Three-Year Averages To Reduce Volatility ➡️In our modified RMD approach, the average of the last three years of portfolio values is used to calculate the withdrawal, rather than the value on a single (arbitrary) day. The total...
Trump's Iran Comment Pushes Oil Below $90, Markets Rally
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm Analysis Now Live
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/R1NJQM4nyj Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @StockCharts @MikeZaccardi @zerohedge @dailychartbook @Bluekurtic @BoringBiz_
Trump’s Iran War Comment Sends WTI Below $90
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
90% of Fund Managers Lag S&P—We Don't Need Them
Not only rich but an elite investor because over any reasonable period of time the vast majority of equity fund managers, like 90%, will underperform the S&P 500. We don’t need them. And I’ll never understand why capitalism hasn’t pointed...
Korean Trader Aggressively Buys 150C,
South Korea ripped off the 50-day. 11:20am sweeper bought 149K of the 3/27 150C. Feels like the same trader who nailed the short last Monday. Reminds me of the old $DIA sweeper from back in the day. If you know, you know. $EWY https://t.co/35pRSiDF13
Nasdaq Bounces, Rally Begins—Patience Needed for Growth
The Nasdaq Composite bounced off its 200-day moving average and today is Day 1 of a rally attempt. From here, I would like to see minimal to no distribution over the next few days and a follow through day later...
USO Hits $16B Volume, Biggest Day in 20 Years
Finally tally for USO was $16b of volume. Here's how that looks vs every other day of trading in its 20yr life. My guess is this is the peak, we cool off from here. But what a comeback in relevancy...
2026 Risk Assets Outlook: Bonds, China Stocks Shine
OUT NOW - Michael Howell @crossbordercap on: - why he expects 2026 to be bad for risk assets - why he's bullish bonds & Chinese stocks - Gold, Bitcoin, & yield curve, and "Turbulence" phase of Liquidity cycle Apple🔊https://t.co/7bjoJLeYdJ Spotify📽️https://t.co/plpNPVQicu https://t.co/1mD9VJPm5e
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 28% After Iran Tensions
A different cut of the same idea, using options prices that reference 3-month SOFR via the Atlanta Fed's tracker In the one week between Feb. 27 (the day before the first strikes on Iran) and Mar. 6, the probability of at...
Google Rebounds; Need >$305 Closes to Confirm Low
nice bounce in $GOOGL closes above the 30min downtrend. need ot see a couple of closes above 305 to believe the short term low is in... https://t.co/zbD0srOwCf
Choose Volatility Sales over Raising Cash This Week
Did you raise cash last week or did you sell vol, deploy cash, and sell put spreads?
Trump's Negotiation Backstop Mirrors S&P 200‑Day SMA
Perhaps President Trump's negotiation backstop is the 200-day SMA on the $SPX just like the rest of us... https://t.co/Jw1ZvsM3pP
Sales May Beat Forecast Despite Slight YoY Decline
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-b1a My sense - based on limited data - is sales will be above the consensus forecast, but will likely be down slightly year-over-year.
Oil Plunges $30 on Trump’s Iran War Comment
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see) A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks. Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war...
NVDA's 200‑Day SMA Proves Reliable Indicator
$NVDA 200sma again coming in clutch and a solid spot as a tell going forward https://t.co/GkapjyrNKa
DBC ETF Composition: 80% Crude Oil
New free article: The $DBC ETF is 80% crude oil. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/0UwhX5CPUy
$64M Short‑Dated Puts Sold Since Market Open
Puts have been selling off since the open on Mag 7, totaling $64M short-dated single-leg Puts sold today. 👇
Oil Prices Held by Hormuz Tanker Standstill Risk Premium
The oil price isn't one of those things that spirals infinitely up. At current levels near $100, a big risk premium prices the temporary standstill of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. You can bet Trump is working like crazy...
Massive SPY Call Surge Amid
$15M Call Spike on $SPY just before close. Trump said, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much.”
SPY Climbs 1% Today, Brace for Market Backlash
$SPY now up 1% on the day.. let the gnashing of the teeth commence https://t.co/PDQSFKpyuT
Early 2026 Sales Lag 2025, March May Recover
The first two months of the year have started off with lower closed sales volume than 2025. The hope is for March 2026 to be a little higher in light of slightly more pendings lately. https://t.co/Ctj0EyVXqx
Market Bottomed 17 Years Ago; Now up Tenfold
The stock market bottomed out 17 years ago today. The market is up 10-fold since then (incl divs). https://t.co/SZqfiM1kX3
Patience Saves; Oil Slides Amid Trump Hormuz Threat
I am glad that I have remained patient so far. If you had jumped the bandwagon on oil this morning, you would have been 20% down ish by now. I know the below is not a guarantee, but I stick...
Buy the Dip: Invest More as Markets Fall
You can't pick a stock market bottom, you can only pick a stock market discount. The strategy for investing is simple: 1. Always stay invested at an asset allocation 2. If the stock market falls 25%/50%/75%, invest 25% of the allocation not...
Market Poised for Major Upside Reversal on March 9
Seems sort of fitting that the market would have a major upside reversal on March 9th.
Oil Plummets as Stocks Surge in Overnight Futures
Oil turned red, and stock indexes turned green. Looks like an oil blow off top and a stock index washout low in the futures market overnight.
10‑Year Yield Surges, Treasuries Lose
10-year yield at 4.15%. Up 18 bps in a week. Bonds selling off into a growth scare. That's not supposed to happen. When Treasuries stop being a safe haven, the playbook is broken. https://t.co/yIChc2y0aR
S&P 500 Breach Signals Likely Correction Ahead
The S&P 500 has broken through key support at its 100-day and 20-week moving average for the first time in about a year, increasing the probability of a full correction in the index in coming weeks. There have been just 8...
SPX Monster Reversal only Matters After Breaking Lower Highs
$SPX Monster reversal. ✅ 👉But it means nothing until the series of lower highs is broken. https://t.co/S175U5VDpk
Tech Investment Gains Spotlighted in Broadcom Analysis
Ray Wang makes the case for investing in tech https://t.co/Xc0L0HR1qL @FoxBusiness @cvpayne @rwang0 of @constellationr discusses @Broadcom's quarter, mega-cap buys, stock-based compensation and more on 'Making Money.' https://t.co/R7sDw6EAZn
Oil Spikes 35% in Week, 90% Since December
Oil just did something it hasn’t done in 40 years. It’s now up +35% in a week. Up 90% since December’s low of $55/barrel. Now crossing $105+. This isn’t normal.
Italy’s Giorgetti Warns ECB Against Hasty Rate Hikes
Italy’s Giorgetti cautions the ECB against the temptation of raising interest rates https://t.co/CasNsOy0KU via @Alemrome https://t.co/z3ATeFnSqp
Oil Flips to Technical Bear After Weekend $115 Surge
Oil closed Friday in a bull market at $91 but will close today in a technical bear market around $95 because it went to $115 over the weekend. https://t.co/kG1QReBbAy
NYFANG Leads Mega-Cap Recovery After November Crash
$NYFANG was the first mega-cap index to crack; it peaked back in November. But it's also the first to bounce, leading since late February, while the others haven't. https://t.co/im29c9GnlA
Oil Prices Plunge Over 20% Into Bear Market
"We survived you guys. Oil is in a bear market, down more than 20% from its highs." - @jschultzf3
Crude Oil Futures Likely to Stabilize Near $94
Crude Oil Futures could be unchanged soon $93.66 after the high of $119.48 kinda like that day in Silver Futures
New‑crop Corn and Soy Near 2026 Annual Highs
🌽$4.98-1/2 per bu 🫛$11.72-1/2 per bu Will Monday's highs be the annual highs for new-crop corn & soybeans in 2026? Dec corn nearly hit $5, though the close was almost 17 cents off the session high (Nov beans closed ~24 cents off)....
Canadian Utilities Reverse After Surpassing 2022 Highs
Canadian utilities $ZUT reversaed last week after making marginal new highs and finally exceeding the '22 highs... if see more struggles here, we don't get to be surprised... https://t.co/YczSyoxJZe
Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis
Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD
Switch to EV, Save $31,500 Over 15 Years
Good time to replace your gasoline car with a battery-electric car and save $31,500 in fuel cost over 15 years: = 15,000 mi/y x 15 y x ($5/gal-gas - $0.8/gal-equivalent-electricity) / 30 mi/gal = $31,500 Gasoline prices could reach $5 a...
X
Canadian materials $XME (so much stronger than U.S. materials, so let's stay on topic) had a 2nd "biggest bar against" last week and that to me puts extra question marks that need answers... slows me down for sure... in most...
Trade Fresh News Against S/R, Leverage Second-Day Momentum
a trader asked me over the weekend about placing trades against game plan S/R levels: --one idea is long against S2 in a stock that has fresh news that isn't very negative ($HIMS #1 GP today) --another is 2nd Day Play...