Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
23 Years of Dividend Growth Amid Volatile Uptrend
Couple of impressive aspects to #CKN - 23 years of Dividend growth and ShareScope showing the Share Price Chart in an Uptrend for 23 years (coincidence?). Quite wide swings in the Uptrend Channel though. I don't hold.
Master Gamma and Throttle for Pro Risk Management
GAMMA @t1alpha If you don't know where Gamma and its Throttle are, you really don't know how to manage risk like Macro Pros @Hedgeye do https://t.co/fU17MkB83v
FTSE's 5‑Wave Decline Signals European Bear Market
Is the European Bear Market officially here? A 5-wave decline on the FTSE is currently underway, which will confirm the major trend reversal: Check the exact chart structure link: https://t.co/4oJ2BVaD7J #FTSE100 #UKStocks #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis $UKX https://t.co/hEs6rEDuGu
IEA Stockpiles Insufficient Due to Low Release Rates
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...
Oil Prices Hit $100, Crisis Likely Deepens
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood...
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Gulf Bottlenecks Trap OPEC+ Capacity, Limiting Supply Boost
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Brent Holds $106‑108 as IEA Stock Decision Looms
Crude in a holding pattern -- likely short-lived -- with Brent at $106-108/bbl, awaiting IEA stock release decision.
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
10‑Year Note Futures
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
Oil Supply Drop Equals ~4 Days, Not 20
Current oil supply is not zero. It is 20% less than before. So this would mean 20 days of consumption.
Oil Hits $120, Asian Markets Brace for Further Drops
CRUDE OIL Prices above $120 🔥 Big bad news - whole Asian Market Falling 📉 Now understand why I booked remaining profit on Friday. More fall coming - Strong breakdown on chart.🚨 Don't panic ❌ Take decision's wisely ✅ @champ_trader
China Emerges as War’s Biggest Winner, US Falters
No. China is the big winner. Putin will still lose in Ukraine. But Xi looks increasingly stable and sane to the world, as the US looks worse and worse, and weakens and distracts itself. China's EV industry stands to benefit...
Use Market Drop as Long-Term Investment Opportunity
Blood is on the streets. Sadly, even literally. Portfolios will bleed too, and this time it's a man made disaster. We've seen these before, and we've emerged eventually out of them better, but man made disasters tend to take a little...
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
23800 Support Crushed, Target 275‑300 Zone
23800 was a crucial support for Nifty50 and it’s been brutally broken today 😬 >> Holding 10 Mar 23900 PE, avg ~195.50. Option already spiked to 325.95, largely driven by gamma expansion + IV spike after the breakdown...💥🔥 >> Current plan: looking for...
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...
Largest EUR/USD Gap in 11 Months Usually Bounces Back
$EURUSD gapped down -0.6% over the weekend. That is the largest bearish gap in 11 months. Of the last four gaps lower of this size or greater, the pair mounts a quick and significant recovery https://t.co/1MB9YzNdvG
Nighttime Oil Short, Tight Stop, Morning Reveal
Put on a cheeky little oil short with a tight stop before going to sleep let’s see what the morning has in store for me.
Hong Kong IPO Debut: One Rises, Two Plunge
Monday March 9th Hong Kong IPO debuts: • Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics: ⬆️ 4% • Estun Automation: ⬇️ 14% • Alsco Pooling Service: ⬇️ 40%
IEA Warns Surplus Could Turn Deficit Amid Middle East Turmoil
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
SARB MPC Schedules Five Additional 2026 Meetings
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🇿🇦 The SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 more times in 2026. Bookmark these dates 🔻 🇿🇦2̶9̶t̶h̶ ̶J̶a̶n̶u̶a̶r̶y̶ ( Unchanged ) ✅ 🇿🇦26th March 🇿🇦28th May 🇿🇦23rd July 🇿🇦23rd September 🇿🇦19th November
EU Urged to Leverage Market for Concessions From Fragile China
1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." https://t.co/haMEakKlUZ via @scmpnews
Brent and WTI Crude Surge to $119.5 per Barrel
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Sparks Worst Energy Crisis Since 1970s
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
Qatar Outage Wipes Out LNG Glut, Risks Deficit
LNG GLUT CANCELED FOR ANOTHER YEAR 🚢⚠️ Qatar's production halt is likely to remove most of a glut Morgan Stanley forecast for this year. The bank now sees a 2m ton overhang Any extension in the Qatar outage beyond one month “quickly...
China's CPI Surges, Deflationary Trend Reverses
1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. https://t.co/gpaBJ53yli
Refiners' Barrel Scramble Fuels Price Spike, Not Speculation
A really important feature of this current market is that it’s physical participants’ (ie refiners) scramble for barrels—and not spec sentiment—that’s driving insane $ spike & explosion of backwardation We already saw this last week, when spec was net ~flat despite...
China Refuses U.S.-style Role in Iran Partnership
.@ZichenWanghere: “China is not willing to play the same role for Iran that the United States has long assumed for its own partners. But that does not mean that China is feckless…Too many observers still measure every rising power against...
Indian Markets Plunge Across All Sectors
Indian Market Blood bath🩸( All Over Sectors 💔 ) SmallCap: -600🔻 Nifty: -735🔻 Midcap: -2040🔻 Sensex: -2400🔻 Banknifty: -2410🔻 FIN NIFTY: -1050🔻 NIFTY AUTO: - 1152🔻 NIFTY FMCG: -950🔻
S&P Drops 5% This Year, Trump Claims Credit
S&P is down almost 5% this year https://t.co/jJ8zHsWyLU No one thought it could be done, but Donald Trump did it!
Oil Gains Shrink to Just 27% of Prior Level
One of the strangest headlines I've had to write: Oil pares gains (today) to just 27% now https://t.co/W2IOR839WN
Oil and S&P Futures Keep Falling, Sentiment Wanes
Oil and S&P 500 Futures Extend Tumble to Start the Week – Is Sentiment Giving Way? Wrote this week ahead article on an airplane with awful wifi... https://t.co/PoHGRgI2oL
China Acknowledges Deflation Risk, Vows Positive Cost Growth
“Encouragingly, China now seems very alert to the threat of deflation…Li Qiang said the government will steer the cost of living ‘back into positive territory.’ That’s tougher language than last year…a welcome recognition that Beijing has a problem.” https://t.co/V270GGGAJB
Trump's Aggressive Foreign Policy Fuels Higher Oil Prices
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Dubai Must Simplify Investment Rules to Remain Top Destination
Dubai faces immediate risk from Singapore. If Dubai wants to retain itself as the best foreign destination it should direct @DIFC to lay out easy rules for investors. Large banks like @RAKBANKlive and @EmiratesNBD_AE should ensure that both existing...
Holding Crude Inventory Lets You Profit $30 per Barrel
If you have crude inventory right now you’re selling every single barrel in your tanks (& buying back 6 mths down curve for $30/bbl less pocketing the diff) If you’re not, you’re in a really tough spot because you actually need...
Corn Ethanol Future: $13 Corn, $27 Beans, Flex‑Fuel Viable
Corn will eventually trade at $13 Beans will eventually trade at $27 Maybe not this decade, but someday Corn ethanol is a fuel My truck (Nissan) is approved for flex-fuel (FFV) It can run on gas that is 80% corn ethanol $ZC_F $ZS_F https://t.co/CYZjGOzeLt
Urban Stickiness Vanished; People and Capital Won’t Return
The stickiness that once anchored people and capital to great cities is gone. It is not coming back https://t.co/D0BFIOpVUy
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily Against US Dollar
‼️Hedge funds are EXTREMELY BEARISH on the US Dollar: Net dollar positioning of hedge funds and other asset managers is down to -$18.9 billion, near the most bearish level in at least 3 years. Hedge funds are getting caught off guard. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Small Truckers May Idle Rigs Amid Fuel Price Volatility
If past oil surges are a guide, we could see small trucking operators park their rigs, waiting for fuel prices to stabilize.
Risk‑off Defies Norms as Yields Stay Flat‑up
Puzzling. In risk-off market yields go down, but they're flat to up, globally (so not "sell-America"). Central banks seen as less likely to ease. True, until you get non-linearities and recessions (e.g. summer of 2008, oil up sharply and ECB...
Brent Prompt Timespread Hits Record $9+, Signaling Unprecedented Tightness
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
Oil Futures Hit -$42; Meme Traders Could Amplify Chaos
Reminder, oil futures once traded at negative $42 a barrel. And if the meme stock traders get a hold of this thing who knows where it can go?
Oil Spikes to $110, Framework Holds—Briefly
This is actually looking like a great framework after oil hit $110 tonight… Aged pretty well for now. Can change in about ten minutes tho 😂
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...