Energy Chief Says Oil Plentiful; Market Fear Persists
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright: “… The oil is there […] You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace. But the world is not short of oil today or natural gas…” (Not sure this verbal massaging is going to do any good — the opposite is likely)
Graphs Retain More than Text: Visuals Process Faster
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The human brain processes images 60,000 times faster than text, and the retention of information presented in graphs is much higher than text. NOTHING BEATS A GOOD GRAPH. TURKEY booms. Before the war, IRAN did not tank. LEBANON is in the...
Systematic Strategy Hits 8 of 9 Targets Amid Volatility
The Weekly Compass is Live In a week defined by high volatility, our systematic approach delivered results: 8 of 9 high-probability setups reached their targets 🎯. Access the new weekly plan and a neutral volatility assessment. https://open.substack.com/pub/smartreversals/p/tension-at-the-gate
Bellevue New Apartments Skew Toward Studios, Not Families
Look at the distribution of units built in Bellevue, Washington. In buildings since 2010 with more than 20 units ... over 70% of new units are Studio or 1BRs, and less than 2% have 3+ bedrooms We don’t build apartments for...
Dragonfly Capital's Top 5 Monday Trade Picks
Dragonfly Capital - 5 Trade Ideas for Monday: APA, Fidelity National, Fastly, Intercontinental Exchange and Ring $APA $FIS $FSLY $ICE $RNG https://t.co/bmIVUw2USa https://t.co/eLsvqsBbW9
High‑Income Job Losses Undermine Local Housing Outlook
High-income job declines don’t work well for the housing market. This is a trend (namely at local level) we’ve been hammering on the last few years as we maintain a weak outlook for housing in general. https://t.co/jN2DMafhy5 https://t.co/NhCzjO8knR
Add Bedrooms, Boost Rent per Sq Ft in Tight Markets
A game-plan that works in supply constrained markets: Identify older buildings with apartments that are too large relative to the number of beds and baths they have (for example a 1,000 sq ft one bed). During renovation, using permits, reconfigure the units...
Markets Stuck Between Strength and Weakness This Week
Weekly Market Report: Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Everything you need to know or stop paying attention to. Link in reply below. 👇 $SPY $TLT $DBC $GLD https://t.co/QdGU8J0KdM
Premium Users Get This Week’s Top Trade Ideas
Premium Users - Top Trade Ideas for the Week of March 9, 2026: The Best, on the blog and here https://t.co/9TMJXjTA2I
Iraq's Southern Output Slashes 70% Amid Hormuz Blockade
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Tesla Holds Yearly Pivot Support, New ATH Uncertain
$TSLA - Found support at the yearly pivot for the 2nd time in the last 5 weeks. A weekly close below 387 will confirm that it made a major top in December, but I don't expect it to happen next...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Analyzing the Ripple Effects of the Oil Price Surge
Nice one from @greg_ip of @WSJ on the potential impacts on the spike in oil. https://t.co/FcZEQltWw3
Most Charts Look Messy, yet S&P So
Stair Stepper and Ripping Through The S&P 500. Overwhelming majority of charts are messy. https://t.co/981sGtJSOu
Oil Price Spike Adds 10bp Inflation, Cuts Growth
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Ukrainian Strikes Threaten US Oil Giants’ Kazakh Profits
Chevron and ExxonMobil have a stake in major Kazakh oil projects, which flow through Russia to be exported. Ukrainian strikes on any related infrastructure risk harming those American energy companies’ bottom line, and that simply will not do. #crudeoil #drones #geopolitics...
SPY Defends Level 680 as Market Remains Red
The week ended the same way it started — defense. $SPY 680 held all week until Friday. Breadth, regime, posture — all red. Drones are showing some signs of life. New post is up 👇 (reply) https://t.co/F63KJoybso
30-Day VIX Futures vs SPX RV21 Comparison
And here's my version using $VIX, VX30 (constant maturity VIX futures) and SPX RV21 that's ~ 30 calendar days. https://t.co/e8dCY61qju
China's Fertiliser Stockpiles Keep Exports Tight
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Diversify Now; Active Hedging Won’t Save a Sinking Portfolio
With vol high/skew high but OTM calls also high and with equities in a minor drawdown those with undiversified max long U.S. equity portfolios are whipping around "options" trade ideas as the solution. Looking for ways to hedge. ...
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Short‑term OTM Calls Miss Right‑Tail Market Moves
If you sold long stocks on Friday and bought 10d 3 month calls at equal notional you are going to underperform badly in most right tail events. Doing it delta neutral is highly likely to get destroyed in most...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
Housing Inventory May Turn Negative Despite Low Rates
Kinda embarrassing for the #housing 2008 crowd, and, worse than 2008. At this pace, if rates stay low, inventory might show some negative week-to-week data. 🤯🤯🤯😳😱 What a bunch of scrubs 😁😉🥂 @housingwire @sarahteresa6 read the tracker reports and join...
Iran Keeps Shipping Oil to China Amid Conflict
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
Housing Inventory Growth Slows Sharply, Risks Negative Prints
The housing market shifted mid-June 2025. Inventory growth was running at 33% and now it's running at 6.91% with a risk of some negative week-to-week prints. https://t.co/VgpdKDUPpd
Fortunes Grow in the Quiet Gap Before Validation
Most investors won't like your investment idea until after it doubles, which means validation comes long after you've purchased and borne the burden of being alone in your conviction. The gap between purchase and recognition is where fortunes are built...
Energy Prices Expected to Surge Beyond Last Week
Brace yourself - energy prices may well rise quite a bit higher than last week. https://t.co/PwzU61UTCt
Gulf Nations Cut Output to Avoid Irreversible Shutdown
On the oil production shut in: By curbing oil output early, Persian Gulf nations are trying to lengthen the time before they reach full storage. Their plan is to try to keep output low but running — avoiding full shutdowns. The former...
Free Guide to Master 6 Precise Fibonacci Patterns
Here’s a link below to a FREE Fibonacci Trading Strategy Guide (ebook): 📈📉 Learn the 6 Fibonacci Pattern Types that Create the Most Precise Price Levels, Targets, and Reversal Zones for traders. Click here: ⬇️ https://t.co/62UAf4L9jv Discover the 5 types that aren't...
MeCURE FY2025 Looks Promising, 49% Upside Forecast
MeCURE just released their FY 2025 results and looks good on the surface. But please do your due diligence. Meristem projects a 49+% upsurge - N91 from current price. Will you be buying MeCURE this week?
US Cancels Strait of Hormuz Safety Alerts Amid War
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
South Korea Mulls First Oil Price Cap in 30 Years
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
Wait for Liquidity Grab, Then Follow True Market Direction
Liquidity Grab is one of the most powerful moves in the market. Price sweeps liquidity above the highs, traps breakout traders, and then reverses with momentum. Smart traders don’t chase the move. They wait for the liquidity to be taken and...
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
SFO Leads Diesel Prices at $5.96/gal Nationwide Map
Map of average diesel prices by market (updated each morning). SFO has the highest at $5.96/gallon https://t.co/DgH7FMrsx0
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
National Inventory Set to Turn Negative, Price Cuts Decline
The National Inventory is expected to turn negative at some point this year, and the percentage of price cuts is lower compared to last year. Whoever you're getting your housing info from, I would question them about this. https://t.co/AHHEytiMoR
Austin Hits Record Low Rent-to-Income Ratio
It's actually never been cheaper to rent in Austin, TX. The Rent/Income ratio across the metro has dropped to 18.3% - the lowest on record (going back at least 20 years). Landlords are aggressively cutting rents at a time when incomes in...
Japanese Portfolio Managers Barred From Software Investments
“An interesting thing I heard is that some Japanese Portfolio Managers are being actively told company-wide not to touch anything software or IT related in the broad sense, at all” - @InvestInJapan
Diesel Surge Boosts Broker Margins via Fuel Surcharges
The diesel surge is welcome news for freight brokers that have contracted freight. Fuel surcharges will provide a lot of relief, as the diesel surge is moving much quicker than trucking spot rates. Brokers will make a couple of percent on fuel...
Price Parking, Reclaim Lots for Housing Development
"That's why we have these vacant lots, if you get rid of that (free parking) and find a median price for parking where it's kind of expensive you can then build buildings there and people will live there." - @bertkreischer ...
Timing All Asset Classes Beats Even Top Hedge Funds
My market timing calls on dollar, yields, oil, gold/silver, bitcoin & equities (esp growth to value rotation) can help even the best-of-the-best. 🙏
Potential Negative YoY Inventory by April if Seasonal Rise Delayed
We should be getting the national seasonal inventory increase soon, but if, for some reason, that doesn't happen, we will have negative year-over-year inventory data by the end of March or Early April Note: For the worse than 2008 crowd...
U.S. Home Values Up 89% Since 1950 – Hold Longer
Since 1950: U.S. home prices increased 89% Average appreciation 4–5% annually Hold real estate longer.
McClellan Oscillator Signals Bounce After 2024 Carry‑Trade Selloff
#SPX: The McClellan Oscillator has reached levels where price action begins to form a bounce, including the August 2024 Carry Trade selloff and the 2025 Tariff Crash.
Iran War's Historic Oil Disruption Hinges on Conflict Length
The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict. My @FT column: https://t.co/uKMsVXBCQY
Israel's 1.8% Inflation Matches Golden Money‑supply Growth
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Early Iran Risk Warning Yields Record Oil Gains
Since my client warning, VIX has risen 70%. and because I warned two weeks ahead that IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN, clients got to take full advantage of every dollar of the largest weekly gain on record in data going...