Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
Oil Prices Set to Surge Without Conflict Ceasefire
Am re-upping this. 🚀 Brent settled >$92 on Friday. 🚀 Middle East marker crudes are at $100 levels. 🚀 Middle distillates are deep into triple-digit territory. Without an immediate, credible halt to hostilities, oil has only one direction to go. Guess...
US Investors Push Asian Funds to Create Restricted‑tech Vehicles
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
US Waives Penalty Tariffs, India Keeps Strategic Ambiguity
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
Mispriced $MLCI Offers Second Chance at $5
Sometimes Mr. Market hands you a mulligan. I got clipped tendering $MLCI from the wrong zip code, then got a second swing at $5.00 after the board itself paid $9.43. I wrote up the mispricing, the mechanics, and...
All Major Energy Prices up Year‑over‑year
What’s interesting about this is that electricity, gas, oil, jet fuel and gasoline prices are all higher today than a year ago.
Bullish Candle Below Bollinger Signals Dow Bounce
#DJI: Buyers stepped in forming a bullish candle below the Bollinger band; a rare condition that typically triggers a bounce in the #DowJones. The Oscillator is oversold.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
NVDA Bonus Linked to FY27 Revenue, Buy on Pullbacks
Nvidia ties CEO Huang’s $4M bonus to FY2027 revenue milestones. Macro: AI-driven revenue surge. Key factors: record FY26 sales, China export limits, TSMC shift to Vera Rubin. Risk: geopolitical export curbs. Trading insight: accumulate NVDA on meaningful pullbacks. — Viktor...
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
Withdrawal Freeze Signals Deep Liquidity Crisis at BlackRock
Thought? BlackRock investors rushed to pull their money out and withdrawals were suddenly locked. Halting withdrawals typically signals serious liquidity problems and can trigger panic in the financial system.
China’s Modest Target Risks Stalling Demand Revival
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
US Private Credit Stocks Face Massive Outflows and Declines
⚠️US private credit stocks are under PRESSURE: Blue Owl stock is down -50% in 12 months, dropping below its $10 listing price from 2021. Meanwhile, Blackstone's $82 billion private credit fund saw -$1.7 billion in net OUTFLOWS over the last month👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-private-credit-stocks-are-under-heavy-pressure
Putin Benefits as Russia Aids Iran, US Relaxes Sanctions
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Vegas Vacancy Rate Hits 10‑Year High, Rents Plummet
Las Vegas apartment vacancies are spiking. And landlords are not happy. 7.6% of Vegas apartments are now sitting vacant, the highest level in nearly 10 years. (Triple the pandemic low of 2.4%). 4 years ago, rents were soaring, and there was no availability. Now...
WTI Jumps 36%, Second Biggest Weekly Rise in 40 Years
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
SMH Weakens; Crude Spike Needed for Risk Reversal
$SMH gradually starting to show more and more weakness as the Software malaise has begun to shift to Semis & Memory. While this is nearing "short-term" support, the short-term trend break & undercut of Tuesday's lows is still a...
Oil Surge Triggers Market Drop, Volatility Spikes
Markets took a hit this week as oil surged to $91 and volatility spiked. We walk through the technical damage, the software bounce, and the levels that matter next. $SPY $QQQ $USO $VIX $EEM https://t.co/nXDfSdS9vc
Simple Crowd‑contrarian Setups with Defined Risk Levels
So there's no exact playbook for trading against the crowd but I try to share some decent probability setups and wanted to attach notes to them. 1 thing I'd say is it doesn't need to be super complex, but you do...
MarketSurge’s $1/Day Upgrade Adds 100+ Indicators and Stock Ideas
MarketSurge just rolled out its biggest upgrade ever and you can try it for $1/day. New features include: • 100+ indicators • Automatic pattern recognition • Growth 250 stock ideas + 1-99 ratings Worth exploring. Great upgrade @marketsurge
S&P 500 Faces Frequent 1%+ Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Crude Soars 35% While S&P Bare
WTI crude up 35% on the week, one of the best weeks in history. S&P 500 down only 2%? And energy up only 1%? Markets sometimes don't make sense.
Mixed Data, US Growth, Buying Opportunities Amid Sentiment
Busy week with mixed data but still growth in the US (Atlanta Fed 2.1% - some weather, some not) and pretty negative sentiment which are long term opportunities. Did some buying this week. $NFLX $TGT $PANW Great...
Broad ETFs + Focused Picks Simplify Portfolio Growth
Follow these three rules to optimize your investment portfolio for maximum growth. Welcome to another #ETFFriday. 1. More is less: The broader an ETF, the fewer ETFs you would need overall in your portfolio. Pair broad ETFs like VEQT with a thematic...
Pending Sales Rise YoY, Driving Inventory Decline
Another week of positive year-over-year growth in our weekly pending sales data, and it's biting inventory lower now. 😉 A lot more with tracker article this weekend
Banning Institutional Investors May Worsen Housing Affordability
'The housing paradox: why banning institutional investors could make affordability worse' Commentary by Amherst CEO Sean Dobson in @FortuneMagazine (no paywall) https://t.co/mXFQpGRK2m
VIX Backwardation Signals Market Tension Near S&P Peak
The VIX has entered backwardation with the S&P 500 only -3.65% off its 2026 high. $VIX $SPY $SPX https://t.co/WsMfvN6wRa
All Major Homebuilders Face Year‑Over‑Year Margin Compression
All 11 of the biggest homebuilders tracked by ResiClub are seeing year-over-year margin compression Homebuilders—especially those with a big presence in some of the softer markets in Texas and Florida—are still in cost-cutting mode ResiClub PRO report: https://t.co/w9iTXbeCx0
New Lindy Effect ETF Targets 50‑Year‑Old Companies
New filing for a Lindy Effect ETF.. which will only hold companies that are over 50yrs old. Some other ones incl Insurance ETF (haven't seen one of those in a long time). New issuer I believe too. https://t.co/c1L9kTa7hU
Rent Now, Sell Later When Market Improves
If you have a property that is not going to sell for what it’s worth, you might consider holding onto it, renting it out, and then selling it later on when the market is better. Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent...
Live at 5 PM EST: Market Update & Buy List
Going live at 5pm EST to talk through the market and my current buy list. Tune in! https://t.co/kyw8OTU9MP
Mortgage Spreads Curb Rates Amid Iran War Concerns
Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war sp... https://t.co/iBMRx6aFsB via @YouTube
Weekend Risk‑off May Trap SPX at 6800
risk off into weekend...lack of conflict over weekend may push SPX back into its 6800 box
Transport Stocks Lose 2026 Gains, Hover Near 2025 High
Transports gave up nearly all of their 2026 gains in one week. Now sitting just above the 2025 highs, a key level bulls will look to hold. $IYT https://t.co/7QBZnccPYe
QQQ Likely Tests 200‑Day MA Around 589‑590
$QQQ - As expected the choppy downtrend continues into next week. This week's low was 591.87. I expect it to make only a marginal lower low and bottom at the 200 day MA at the 589-590 range next week. https://t.co/gEEuUNwCm2
Panama's Port Seizures Curb China's Regional Maritime Influence
While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...
Oil Ripping Signals Imminent End of Cycle
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Stick to Plan, Take Profits, Tighten Stops
Not a bad week in Sunrise land. Best thing I did was find some good setups, stuck with my plans and took good profit out of the market. The not so great is I allowed 2 trades too...
Millennium Poaches Four Citadel Stock Pickers Amid Talent War
Millennium Management hired four stock pickers from rival Citadel as the multistrategy hedge fund giants battle over talent to help manage their soaring assets https://t.co/4zMddskNrm
S
SPs likely to close with new momentum LOWS (basis 2 per ROC) and closing below 6800 as well, (though pick a number, any number....lol) https://t.co/qSqXTmUpt9
Re‑entering Consumer Staples at Lower Prices
@TheStreetPro Starting to Buy We sold almost all our consumer staples much higher a few weeks ago.T This afternoon I began to buy back and I am working on a scale lower in consumer staples now — (PG $153.67) , (PEP $157.73)...
Oracle and OpenAI Scrap Texas Data Center Expansion Plans
ORACLE $ORCL AND OPENAI ENDS PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE: BBG Timber $AAOI $BE $AEHR $NVDA $SMH hello $SPX $6700 incoming ;-) As posted Feb 26th: There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Profits Locked on Multiple Longs After S&P Dip
With S and P cash -61 handles we took profits in following longs: $APO $BX $MX $C $KKR $SPY $QQQ
Investors Likely to Dump Public Credit Amid Bearish CDX HY
This has to be one of the most bearish charts I’ve ever seen for CDX HY. One can argue that they won’t be as correlated as they’ve always been, but ‘this time is different’ may be wrong . I think...
Random Discount Store Spending Signals a Budget Check
💸 Where does your money actually go? TJ Maxx? Nordstrom Rack? Marshalls? Ross? We all deserve a little dilly-dally magic… but when random spending runs the show, it’s time for a budget check.
Fed Faces Dual Threat: Rising Inflation and Unemployment
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Oil Jumps 35%—Largest Weekly Gain Since 1983
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Market Direction Unknown; Prioritize System and Stop‑loss
No one knows the future direction of the stock market from here. What matters is the system and the stop-loss, whether pre-defined or imposed by some indicator. $SPX #ES_F