Iran War's Ripple Effect on Economy and Markets
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI etc. @VD718 (my mic wasn't right) https://t.co/h4s4ixX6y2
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Weekend Risk Fears May Trigger Volatility Crush, Buying GDX, SLV
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
Trump Admin Launches $20B Tanker Reinsurance Amid Iran War
Trump admin announces $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers during Iran war: CNBC $XLE $USO
Oil Surge Drives Markets; Ex‑Dolphin Shares TSLA Insight
Tonight on "The Danny Moses Show" @scrippsnews I sit down w/@RLKJ44 & we discuss his journey from @CuseFootball to @MiamiDolphins to his 16 hour swim to shore & his views on the markets. I discuss how the move in Oil...
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
Okta Positions Identity as Agentic Entry Point
Q4 FY 2026 Earnings for @Okta Highlight Agentic Identity Positioning https://t.co/oqESh3att1 My take on how a top enterprise identify firm will try to flip the category into a major agentic entry point.
LevelTen Index Misreads Solar Prices, Not Actual Costs
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
Earn 3.61% APY, No Fees, Support Small Biz
We pay 3.61 APY @bankonroger savings without needing a disclosure about losses….no gimmicks or fees & with FDIC insurance up to $250k per depositor. Plus, your money ignited growth for #smallbiz. https://t.co/8oSpSyhQyM
SPX Closes Weekly Sell‑off, Bearish Outlook Persists
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Gold Bulls Near Perfect Fundamentals; Dip Likely Brief
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
Rising $100 Oil Prices May Dampen Middle East Conflict
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Leverage Turns Markets Into Slot Machines
KOSPI: down 12%. Up 9.6%. Flat. Three days. Three completely different markets. That's not investing. That's a slot machine. Leverage creates the illusion of opportunity on the way up and the reality of destruction on the way down. https://t.co/RXuF5WtBHa
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
China's Anger Grows as Oil Spikes, Summit Uncertain
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Stocks Hold, Yet RSP Faces Worst Week Since 2025
"Stock's are holding up well" ...... $RSP having it's worst week since March 2025..... https://t.co/EEZWRGi6w7
Gas Demand Plummets 59% as Solar, Batteries Surge
How low can gas go? Down 59% in 2026 vs 2023 so far. 14th straight and 41 of 64 days in 2026 with WWS meeting >100% of demand for part of the day. Demand also down 3% vs '23 Solar up 62%; batteries...
Elevated IV and Oil Prices Signal Upcoming Nifty Volatility
Nifty50 10 Mar option chain at today’s close shows ATM IV above 20. That means option premiums are already elevated and the market is pricing serious uncertainty...Add crude oil above $90/barrel, and the macro backdrop is getting tense.😬💥 High IV +...
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
Gulf Nations Reassess US Deals Amid Israel‑Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
NOW Dips Below 50‑day MA, Eyeing Earnings Gap
Another name that I own sitting just below 50ma. Might need basing soon. $NOW well into the ER gap and just below 50ma daily. upped a few of the stop orders today. Need more cushion of...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Low‑volatility Tricks Fail: Loss Frequency × Severity Constant
Gundlach’s law of financial physics: The frequency of losses times the severity of losses equals a constant. Implication: do not invest in artificially “low volatility” strategies.
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
Hedge Funds Stay Growth‑Focused as AI Tools Gain Traction
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤: Fresh launches, team moves are keeping hedge funds in growth mode, while Middle East tensions prompt firms in the Gulf to review near-term plans and continuity playbooks. Meanwhile, AI agent workflows are moving from buzzword to toolkit https://t.co/jiiupziBYa
USO Breakout Pressures Stocks; QQQ Tests 202 Support
witht the breakout of $USO from consolidation we're seeing pressure on stocks again $QQQ testing 202 support area. https://t.co/QfA8Fnetbn
Oil Spikes 16%, RSI Hits 1990 Gulf War Levels
$USOIL - We're witnessing an extreme development today. Crude oil is up 16% currently. The 14 day RSI is above 89. The last time it closed above 89 was in August 1990, during the Gulf war. https://t.co/Fl62P7oRcE
Roche, Zealand Stocks Tumble After Bland Obesity Drug Data
Roche, Zealand shares fall on ‘undifferentiated’ obesity drug results https://t.co/5pSR2vcHBD by @Lilah_Alvarado $RHHBY $ZEAL $LLY $NVO #obesity
S&P 500 Closes Above Midpoint
The $SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point for 8 straight days and 13/14. 3 1/2 hours left to do it again...
Commodities Surge to New 120‑min Momentum Highs, Russia Slides
NG, CL, S, W, CD - all made new momentum highs on 120 minute charts. (Rus made new momo lows on 120 minute)..
Inventory Surged Pre‑recession, Now Below Normal Levels
Home sales peaked in 2005 Home Sales crashed from 2005 to 2008 Inventory spiked before the recession started 2005 2.5 million Inventory 2007 4,000,000 Inventory Currently at 1.22 million Normal is 2-2.5 million Credit channels have run inventory channels for...
Execs Debunk Misinformation, Restoring Investor Trust
Matt Murphy at $MRVL and Hock Tan at $AVGO crushed it in the Q&A. The reason the market reacted wasn't that this was the first time going after it, but they reminded listeners what they were told before, what really...
AI Threatens Office and Finance Jobs, Spares Manual Sectors
this chart from Anthropic on AI and job displacement is basically the HALO trade visualized (the bet that physical economy stocks are the safe haven from AI disruption, coined by @Downtown) Construction, agriculture, transportation: barely touched. Computer & math, office &...
War-Driven Oil Spikes Hint at Further Upside, Dollar Softens
In the 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent rose 32%. We're now up 25% since the war with Iran began, which - to me - says there's more upside. Given all this, the Dollar is trading soft...
Stocks Suffering, Software Masks QQQ Decline
It's not cherry picking season yet Andrew..."Market of stocks" is getting smoked and software (part that's already gotten smoked) is masking that in the $QQQs. Trailing 5 day performance using a more intellectually honest view of the market. *insert 3 snarky...
Support Negligible when Energy Components Fall Below 4%
Rhetorical Question: How do you define support in a chart like this ?! (and energy components are less than 4%).... https://t.co/acijcTvFSG
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
S&P 500 Multiplies Tenfold Since 2009 Low
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 set a closing low of 676.53. Today, it's trading at 6,765.3
USD/CAD Faces Repeated Resistance, Breakdown Risk Rising
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rejected at Resistance Again – Breakdown Risk Builds https://t.co/WgcEZNsTLi $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/vHGLydn1EX
Simple Tactical Trade on AVGO Earnings Yields 2.4% Gain
Sometimes we make it harder than it has to be. $avgo had a good response to earnings yesterday. We discussed in 8:50 call u can buy vs gap pivot of $323. It only hit $327...
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Brent Crude Jumps to $91, Up 25% Weekly
JUST IN: Brent crude oil price surges to $91, up 25% in the past 7 days.
Liquidity Overpromises Trigger Cascading Outflows Crisis
My partner @kieranwgoodwin has been so right about this space for over a year which has really sharpened my vision. Outflows beget outflows. Gating begets outflows. Selling some of the underlying portfolio to meet minimum redemptions creates losses and begets...
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Value Investing Gains Momentum Amid AI Market Rout
This week in value: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report (BH) Tom Gayner – 2025 Letter (Markel) GMO – Year End Letters 2025 (GMO) Icahn Enterprises L.P. 2025 Q4 (Icahn) Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel on resuming buyback program: I absolutely talked to Warren (CNBC) Could Value...
New Long and Short Positions Added This Morning
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: March 6, 2026 - The Long & The Short Of It..." Adding some longs & some shorts this A.M.... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/I3veVBLlHY https://t.co/AqMtKshBK1
EC Inverse Hits Resistance, May Extend Range
$ hit resistance this morning (EC inverse)...may still fill out range another few trading days... https://t.co/CLncQXQ0Ub
Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...