Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will go into a violent sell-off... https://t.co/xbKOf0q0Yc https://t.co/kXWv46Kti4
War Fuels Market Turmoil, Dollar Nears New High vs Yen
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
Choosing Infill and Mountain Sites to Cut Construction Costs
This undershoots the mark. At @americanhousing we're already under these (in some places) Because conventional methods are labor intensive, construction is higher in places with: 1) High rents 2) Scarce labor That's why we're building in: 1) Infill Cities 2) Mountain towns
Invest for Few Big Winners, Sell the Rest
During a lifetime you will have 10-20 big winners and hundreds or thousands that didn’t live up to your expectations. Long-term investing success is capturing those 10-20 monsters while also understanding 95% of what you own will deserve to be...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Analyze the Business First, Not Just Charts
Charlie Munger: “You must value the business in order to value the stock.” Takeaway: Analyze operations before analyzing charts. Most investors analyze charts. The best investors analyze businesses first.
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
Spot Real Reversals: Watch Structure, Momentum, Supply/Demand
Most traders try to trade every trend reversal they see. But most of the time it’s just trend continuation. Real reversals usually show break of structure, momentum shift, and reaction at supply or demand. Without those signals, it’s usually a pullback inside the...
SPY 680 Holds Amid Choppy, Weakening Level Tests
The more a level gets tested, the weaker it becomes. I’ve been calling this an umbrella top, but you could also argue we’re simply trading inside a range between ~690 and ~670. Yesterday was another session where the exact opposite of the...
Leading Indicators Signal NFP Beat, Live Trade at 8:10
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
Commodities Undervalued, Yet Crude Drop Could Trigger Market Risk‑Off
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
EU Explores Decade-Long Strategies to Lower Energy Costs
EU to consider options to cut energy prices this decade https://t.co/AoLG32CeJ4 via @E_Krukowska @AlbertoNardelli https://t.co/Sm9cjZFedq
Individual Stocks Show Triple the Index’s Volatility
"The average stock within the index has been nearly three times as volatile as the index itself (and the implied vol spread suggests the options market believes this will persist)." -GS Pasquariello via ZH
Euro‑area Growth Revised Down From Year‑end Estimate
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
March Beats October, Delivers Positive S&P Return
March is like October's little brother, but he does average a positive SPX return... BofA https://t.co/jFaPf9gsOb
10
4.17% on the 10yr... highest since Feb 12... remember it gapped down to 3.93% to start the week (Sunday night) https://t.co/fDNCy0A6lE
Dollar Poised to Surge Past 100 on DXY
The dollar looks like it wants to rip higher through 100, doesn't it? $DXY $USD https://t.co/ScJLmOqxcb
Gasoline Futures Near $2.70, Pump Prices Set to Hit $3.65
RBOB gasoline futures near $2.70.. implying $3.65 at the pump soon... close to the highest level since mid-2022 $RB_F $UGA @teconomics https://t.co/vQA49bLeZr
Oil Climbs Past $84, Stocks Hold Pending Jobs
WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3
SPY Flat as Sector ETFs Show Mixed Moves
$SPY unch $IWM -0.2% $XLE +1.1% $EEM +0.6% $EWY +1.9% $FXI +1.5% $GLD +0.3% $IBIT -0.9% @finviz_com https://t.co/u4xUOH2SHq
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
Prepare Your Levels Before Market Opens, Trade Consistently
Most traders react. Successful traders prepare. The Free NeuroTrading Method® Quick Start Guide shows you how to define your levels before the market opens so you’re not guessing in real time. Build consistency in 15 minutes a day. Access it here 👇 https://t.co/CMoZufB9dH Courtesy of @StockChartPros
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Prioritize Asymmetrical Risk-Reward Over Being Right
It’s not about being right or wrong on a trade. It’s about finding asymmetrical return/risk opportunities in your favor and then managing the outcome: https://t.co/HjjEH6k193
HSP Sells Land at Premium, Dividend Rises, Not a Hold
#HSP selling a 2nd tranche of its renewable energy land portfolio for £6.8m, at 6% uplift to independent valuation. ShareScope has fwd p/e 12.4 falling to 12.2 and fwd Divvy 5.1% rising to 5.2%; nice income. I don't hold.
AVON Lands $12.7m Order,
#AVON won a $12.7m order for Filters for a middle east customer. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 20.5 falling to 18.3 and fwd Divvy 1.3% rising to 1.5%; not a crazy rating for a defence stock and seems to be on...
Diversify Energy to Shield Bills From Middle East Turmoil
What will be impact of the conflict in the Middle East be on energy bills? What can we do to avoid being so exposed to international fossil fuel price volatility? I was asked these and other questions by LBC News....
US Temporarily Relaxes Russian Oil Sanctions for India
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
Korea's Rare Mix: Booming Stocks, Huge Surplus, Weak Won
Korea is a super interesting case (even before the latest events in the Gulf). Surging current account surplus (10% of GDP), surging domestic stock market and a very weak currency are an unusual combination 1/
Japanese Builders Accelerate U.S. Homebuilder Acquisitions
Japan’s big bet on the U.S. housing market got even bigger last week Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—now Daiwa House is buying United Homes That came just 10 days after Japan-based Sumitomo Forestry said it's buying Tri Point Homes...
US Pushes Formal Venezuelan Critical Minerals Value Chain
US critical minerals talks in Caracas signal a push for a formal Venezuelan mining value chain. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/us-critical-minerals-supply-chain-in.html
Swedish Central Bank Urges Cash Hoarding Amid Payment Risks
Swedish central bank urges public to horde cash in case of payments disruption https://t.co/ckNfNUQsve "The Riskbank is currently working on improving the possibility of making offline payments by card to strengthen resilience." https://t.co/yLYmWsDoh0
Trump‑Xi Summit Focuses on Beans, Boeings, Oil
So the agenda for the Trump-Xi summit will reduce to 'beans, Boeings and barrels (of oil)? 1/
Contrarian Opportunity? Freee 4478 JP Faces Unexpected Negativity
Very surprised by the negativity surrounding Freee 4478 JP. I'm either completely wrong, or in it's a highly contrarian buy. https://t.co/ihtyiQ5SFt
US Waiver Leaves Brent Near 20‑Month High
Crude's reaction to the one-month, conditional US "waiver" on Indian purchases of Russian oil says it all. Brent is not even 1% lower Friday afternoon in Asia, after settling at a 20-month high above $85. @VandaInsights' first Executive Briefing Note of...
Silver Rally Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
Low Volatility Seeds Future Turbulence; Powell‑Trained Models Miss Warsh
Low vol begets high vol, to paraphrase Minsky. Systems trained on Powell, and they all have been trained on Powell, will struggle to interpret Warsh… especially as he himself will struggle with the same.
Denso's ¥1.3T Rohm Offer Seen as Undervalued
*DENSO MADE BUYOUT OFFER TO ROHM, DEAL SEEN ABOUT ¥1.3T: NIKKEI Did not fact check attached, but assuming AI overlord is correct on the valuation of Toshiba stake + Prefs, this 1.3T takeover price looks way too low. I'm all for...
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
Florida Inventory Dips; Connecticut Buyers Still Stuck
Florida is one of the few places where active inventory is down a little year-over-year right now Also: Connecticut homebuyers still can't catch a break Analysis via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/cp8T0N2iHu https://t.co/OFTPOagq2t
TURB Spikes on After‑
$TURB 14x relative volume today, and with how strong this closed in after-hours, it's an obvious watch for tomorrow. Two potential plans here, one on the base over VWAP/closing range highs, and another on the simple break & base over after-hours...
China Lithium Prices Plunge Amid Weak EV Demand, War Uncertainty
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
Robinhood Launches Independent Prediction Markets Beyond Kalshi
Robinhood paved the way recently to launch its own prediction markets, outside of Kalshi https://t.co/AbYwhSNbqm
Measure Return on Risk Against Total Capital Only
WARNING ROR must ALWAYS be measured as the % return of an individual trade against TOTAL nominal capital Ppl who tout ROR as a percent return against margin or options cost or an individual stock or similar are JUST PLAIN FOOLS playing...
US Blocks India’s Currency Advantage, Mirrors China Policy
Why are we surprised by 👇? I wrote this nearly six years ago, in the context of why the US won’t allow India the same freedom of an undervalued currency that it accorded China: https://t.co/sZ45dDSSRv
KOSPI's Memory Chip Weight
What is he on about? KOSPI is like 50% memory chip exposure and earnings estimates have gone up. The people day-trading are local retail investors, but they’re still mostly focused on US tech. https://t.co/ebX1YOmoN2
Wall Street Embraces Crypto: Banks, Exchanges, and Regulators Converge
Just this week… *Morgan Stanley* names *BNY* as a custodian for spot btc ETF Kraken gains access to *Fed* payment system US President says *tradfi banks* need to make good deal w/ crypto industry *NYSE* owner ICE invests in crypto exchange OKX See...