Homeowner Numbers Stagnant; New Laws Fuel Economic Shift
That is not the scale of homeowners in America for 15 years now. The QM laws of 2010 and the 2005 BK reform law changed a lot for American economics https://t.co/SfPRuod5EC
PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins
So I've read a few long essays on how abusive pharmaceutical benefit managers and group purchasing organizations are, and they all make a strong case. And then I look at the companies that own PBMs, and their margins are a)...
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
Start at 40: $1k/Month Builds $1M by 65
If you're 40 and start investing $1,000/month earning an 8% avg return: Age 45: $73,477 Age 55: $346,038 Age 65: $951,026 Add social security and you've got a better retirement than never investing at all.
Dollar Index May Hit Record as Other Currencies Collapse
This paints a potential scenario for how the dollar index could return to its all time high. Not bc it is great. But bc all other fiat will fail first.
Rising PITI Costs Shatter 2020‑24 Sales Threshold
Total PITI costs surged for housing and in a QM lending environment that was set to crush sales. I had a price model limit for 2020-2024: if we didn't surpass 23% during those five years, we would be okay; we...
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
Terminal Values Are Just DCF Shortcuts via Multiples
Terminal values are themselves short-hands for DCFs. This is because a terminal value is essentially a multiple. And a multiple is a short-cut for a DCF. More in the memo below 👇
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
Fannie Mae: Get use to these mortgage rates Fannie Mae's forecast for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Q3 2026 --> 6.0% Q4 2026 --> 6.0% Q1 2027 --> 6.0% Q2 2027 --> 6.0% Q3 2027 --> 6.0% Q4 2027 --> 6.0%
US Grants India 30‑Day Waiver for Stranded Russian Oil
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
Adapt Fast: Trade Few, Cut Losses, Take Profits
The 2026 market doesn't care about your 2025 playbook. Either evolve or get left behind. I’ve stopped chasing and started buying the "failed" moves. Undercuts for longs, uppercuts for shorts. Entering at the point of maximum pain for others is the...
Apple Dips Below Triangle; Watch MAG 7 Recovery
$AAPL broke down under minor triangle support today, & always important to monitor the "Generals" when they show meaningful strength or weakness @IBDinvestors @marketsurge While SPX and QQQ have proven range-bound in recent months, the action has proven...
Invest Enough, and Your Portfolio Funds Housing Forever
I want to gently point out that most people do not understand that if you invest enough, your portfolio can pay your housing costs in perpetuity So when I say "renting can be cheaper," they are bewildered "Yes but how will you...
Opendoor's Sacramento Margins Remain Razor‑thin Despite Improvement
Pulled some #Opendoor stats in Sacramento. They are doing better than a few years ago, but some razor thin margins. This is the dollar difference between acquisition price and resale price. Real estate fees, holding costs, credits, & repairs costs...
Same Advisor, Different Decisions, Hundred‑Thousand Dollar Gap
March 2020. COVID panic. Markets collapsed overnight. Two clients. Same portfolio. Same allocation. Same advisor. What they did next created a gap worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It will probably never close.
DraftKings Eyes Prediction Markets for 10‑30% Higher Margins
Draftkings is getting into prediction markets "Because prediction markets aren’t subject to state taxes, they are expected to have margins that are 10 to 30 percentage points higher than traditional sports betting" https://t.co/NZkaOy523j https://t.co/jXiPNCN8da
Marvell's Strong Earnings Boost S&P 500 Inclusion Odds
Marvell $MRVL is one of our top candidates to potentially be added to the S&P 500 this month. Strong earnings today and it popped 15% after market. S&P 500 rebalance announcement will be tomorrow after close. https://t.co/lZz8qTXoSU
Walk Away When Bridge Debt, Low DSCR, Thin Yield Spread
Here’s how to identify when a deal is too risky: Sometimes the deals you don’t do are more important than the deals you do This 40-unit deal that I underwrote a while ago had 4 major deal breakers 1. Having to take...
Homeownership Isn't the Only Path to Millennial Wealth
If you’re a millennial, you need to stop believing that owning a home is the ONLY way to build wealth. It is just one part of the puzzle and an optional one at that. If you can’t own a house,...
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Median-Income Americans Can Afford Only Modest Homes
This chart shows the = home price an American household on a median income can afford. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/1bNlhKyjp5
Record Large‑Cap vs Small‑Cap Spread Signals Hidden Opportunities
“The spread between large-caps and small-caps is the widest we’ve ever seen.” Rob Arnott joins us on @excessreturnpod to discuss historic valuation gaps, AI expectations, investing in periods of conflict and why the biggest opportunities may be where investors aren’t looking....
Chamath's SPAC Commands 10.5% NAV Premium, Out
Believe it or not but @chamath's current SPAC, $AEXA, trades at the highest NAV premium of all pre-deal SPACs (by a long shot). $AEXA trades at a 10.5% premium to NAV, while the next highest valued are below a 2.5% premium. Despite...
Full Capacity Unlikely Until Mid‑April, Not March 9
They physically cannot restart everything by March 9–apparently full capacity probably can’t be restored for a month.
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Live Market Recap: SPX, QQQ Rally at 5pm ET
We're going LIVE today at 5pm ET / 2pm ET for our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller. Excited to break down the latest charts and market observations as $SPX and $QQQ rallied hard into the...
Patience Beats Premature Entries: Trade With Smart Money Precision
99% of traders enter too early. Smart money waits for the precision entry. Price taps the order block, liquidity is taken, and the reaction begins. This is the difference between emotional trading and strategic trading. If you understand SMC and ICT concepts, the...
Probabilistic GDOT Analysis Shows Inevitable Math Outcomes
Just published a writeup on $GDOT, the math is inevitable. (I am being playful, the math is probabilistic. DYODD, see disclaimers in my post, linked below:) https://t.co/ZjGJRg0ROs
Florida Condos Diverge: $60K Loss vs 11% Gain
Florida condo owners lost $60,000 in equity in one year. Orlando condo owners gained 11%. Same state. Same year. I break down exactly why — and what happens next. https://t.co/fY7zpTVEkE
Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links
The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...
Blend of Tape Reading and Experience Guides QQQ Entry
"Steve, did you get long QQQ at 602.50 based on the tape or was it 20+ years of experience" --student at weekly review "It was a little bit of both. Earlier in the week there was a large opening drive from...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Chicago Investor Secures Third Multifamily Property in Year
In long-term bet, Chicago investor buys third multifamily property in city in less than a year https://t.co/6uKHH6SzQR
Leverage Kills: Margin Calls Trigger Violent Unwind
Korean retail investors had record margin debt. Bought the AI chip story with 30-40% down payments. Then oil spiked. Margin calls hit. Forced selling cascaded. This is the disposition effect in reverse. When everyone holds losers too long, the unwind is violent. The lesson:...
US Homebuilding Follows Demand, Halts at 120K Units
As a country, we simply don't ever build on a supply-first model; we only build based on our demand curve. This is why the builders pause when total completed units for sale just hit 120K, for decades https://t.co/S6RwyAA3hO
Oil Spike Highlights Renewables' Growing Competitive Edge
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
Sudan's Pound Plummets 28%, Ranks 6th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
No Ships in Hormuz Strait: Explained Why
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
Homeowners Cling to Low Rates, yet Many Still Move
Given this situation, millions of Americans could afford and even need to move, but they stay in homes they no longer want because they do not want to lose their low mortgage rates. Yet each quarter, people have given up...
ES_F Weekly Hits 1.618 Extension, AVWAP at 6460
$ES_F bigger picture, weekly, still amazing topped right at the 1.618 extension, the 1.382 sits at lower value edge now, 6682.5, below that it gets real thin back to 6125 with AVWAP off 2025 low at 6460 important too https://t.co/dOkIMQUPwK
Novo Nordisk and Weightwatchers Extend Collaboration to Germany
Novo Nordisk expands partnership with Weightwatchers to Germany. Dream team. Love to see it. $NVO $WW
Financial Education: The Overlooked Employee Benefit Companies Need
Most jobs will offer things like health benefits, retirement plans, and gym discounts upfront. But one benefit that doesn’t get talked about enough is financial education. If you think your company could benefit from something like this, feel free to pass...
Markets Tumble $800B as Volatility Surges 70%
Brutal day, the S&P 500 has wiped out around $800 billion in market cap, falling 1.4%. The Dow Jones is having its worst day of 2026, down over 2% 📉 Meanwhile the VIX (volatility index) is up 17% and is now...
Employment and Retail Sales Reports Drop Tomorrow at 8:30 AM
Economic calendar shows we have the employment report and retail sales report at 8:30AM tomorrow.
Record Hedge Activity Signals Unprecedented Investor Fear
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
Coal Demand Splits; Warrior Met Poised for Rebound
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Free Access to Live Trading Room + Unedited AI Notes
Little Note: Big Warning with complimentary access to my live trading room recording & (unedited) AI briefing notes. https://t.co/kpucMGgu60
Fund the Trust, or Probate Defeats It
My biggest estate planning tip when it comes to trusts? Fund the trust. So someone can pay thousands of dollars to draft a beautiful trust document and still end up with a full probate estate. Creating a trust is only half...
Advisors Must Master AI Prompting and Verification
I've long-held that one of the most important skills for an advisor to develop is to become an excellent "Google-er." With the advances in AI over the past few years, I've started to reframe that concept to becoming more of...