Advisors Must Master AI Prompting and Verification
I've long-held that one of the most important skills for an advisor to develop is to become an excellent "Google-er." With the advances in AI over the past few years, I've started to reframe that concept to becoming more of a good "AI-er." Half that battle is learning to use good prompts. The difference in what you can surface with a good prompt and a poor one is dramatic. And, for what it's worth, I think the other half is learning how to sufficiently and efficiently verify any AI's output. "How Advisers Can Improve AI Prompts" https://t.co/hQun3NrbbB
IRS Alerts: New Tax Scams Evolving Beyond Phishing
From phishing emails to bogus tax credits, the IRS warns that scammers keep changing tactics. Here’s what you should know about the most common tax scams now. https://t.co/0ciX8gUJKy
High VIX Signals Tough Swing Trades, Stay Nimble
observation $VIX currently 25.18 makes for hard environment for swing trading and must stay nimble if day trading. My opinion, your wallet.
Wealth Tax Could Generate $4.4 Trillion for Social Programs
Backers project, based on Forbes’ billionaires list, that a new wealth tax would raise $4.4 trillion over 10 years for childcare, housing, and a $ 3,000-per-person check for many Americans. https://t.co/6EYBhzxmZP
Bipartisan Bill Targets Bad Tax Preparers, Stops Short of Regulation
Most paid preparers aren’t subject to any licensing or competency standards. A new bipartisan bill would tighten enforcement against bad preparers, but it stops short of regulating the industry. https://t.co/J8Bz2tVSPF
Morgan Stanley Leads Wall Street's Tech Outlook Discussion
Morgan Stanley was at the center of the tech universe this week. Dario Amodei and Sam Altman on the Pentagon drama and competition. Jensen Huang and Satya Nadella on where AI goes next. Going live in ~an hour with the...
Atlanta Condos Plunge 25%, Buyers Find Bargains
Atlanta condo down 25% from peak value. Seller taking $40k loss. And now listed at pre-pandemic pricing. The condo market in many cities is getting smoked right now. (with some decent buying opportunities starting to show up). In this case - the HOA fee is...
APP Must Close Above 498 to Confirm Rebound
$APP - Probably made an intermediate term low 3 weeks ago when it bottomed at 359. It needs a weekly close above the 10 week MA(currently at 498) to confirm that. https://t.co/g7pYhVC2tZ
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Indie ETF Freedom Pays Off, Celebrates 300 Supporters
New Trillions Pod: Freedom is Paying Off for This Indie ETF on @EricBalchunas's tl rn. Very unplugged convo where I got to share this moment of reflection on the adventure with day T-300 supporters. THAT is living the dream. Thanks...
Amazon's ER Gap Validates My Gap Trading Theory
$AMZN daily. Note the ER gap. What have I taught on first tests of gap? Playing out so far. https://t.co/37HPE2Lm5g
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
LVS Vulner
$LVS Daily. Short idea. Macau & Singapore focused now after selling Vegas properties. Disruption in air traffic in parts of Asia beyond Middle East adversely affects them. Technically ripe to lose 200-day m.a.. https://t.co/3yQJuxTnOV
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Avoid All 8 IPOs: Market Conditions Signal
My Final Decision for All IPO : Avoid ❌ So, Out of 8 IPO - I personally asked to avoid all 8 IPO 🥲 It was best decision as per market conditions and situation. 🔴 Because, all of these IPO listed -ve @champ_trader
US ISR Support to Ukraine Raises Escalation Risks
Last March, the New York Times wrote that the US was supplying detailed ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) to Ukraine so that Ukraine could more effectively kill Russian targets (with US-made weapons.) We appear to be approaching dangerous territory. https://t.co/aBoGhQCU2x
Continuous Upward Trend Defines Bullishness for $ROST
Bullish charts keep going up. And when they stop going up, that's no longer bullish. But if they don't stop going up, then they don't stop being bullish. $ROST https://t.co/hHdgbWj9aO
Oracle to Slash Thousands of Jobs in $1.6B AI‑driven Restructuring
Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Amazon's $AMZN: Breakout Above 225, Breakdown Below 200
$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages $AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support $AMZN between 200 and 225 = 💤 https://t.co/GbWTIoHDaR
Prioritize Risk‑Reward Management Over Market Timing
If you want to make real money in the market consistently, stop trying to call tops and bottoms and Monday-morning quarterbacking what you could have done. Focus on managing risk relative to reward and turning over your edge. Then, your...
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
Defensive Leadership Erodes Breadth; Demand Real Bullish
Defensive leadership getting smashed which will erode those "breadth" metrics.... But please...cherry pick some bullish stuff for me.... *Note - Dogshit stocks rallying doesn't count.
Beware of Hype‑driven Breakouts and Silent Failures
$XLV - Failed breakout...annoying.... I would avoid those who share the breakouts - then go radio silent when they fail. It's called intellectual dishonesty... https://t.co/OK82rfxZZU
Firms Use Repo‑Like Loans to Hide Debt
“The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt, the letter says.” https://t.co/YLQH5cPi6f
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Boston Scientific Slides to 52‑Week Low, Down 34%
Boston Scientific $BSX -34.1% from highs... another contestant on the 52-week new lows list... https://t.co/MCT33YSBqJ
Marvell Options Signal ~$11 Move, 89.5% Volatility
Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.
ZEB Outperforms TSX Financials Across All Timeframes
while the Canadian bank industry group $ZEB (inside of financials) has been strong, the $TSX financial sector itself has not been strong, relative to the broader index itself... here's $XFN vs. $TSX on 4-time frames: top right: 8/20EMA top left: 20EMA/50SMA bottom left:...
We Build, Own, and Sell Homes—No Customization
We don’t do customization and we don’t build homes on other people’s land. We buy land. we build homes on that land. and then we sell those homes to American families
CRM Poised for Breakout, Eyeing $205 Resistance
$CRM putting some into let it ride. Still own trade shares. 205 next level on radar entry to the overhead gap https://t.co/aLYT4HZjaj
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Home Sellers Relist Fastest in Decade Amid Low Supply
Home sellers are relisting properties at fastest pace in a decade, but spring supply is still low https://t.co/nuOAzLHBun
Manufacture Quality Homes Directly in Desired Neighborhoods
Even more novel idea: Use manufacturing to build NICE housing in the places people want to live https://t.co/gmQAr9C8Ap
Commodities Under 2% of ETF Assets—Gold Over‑crowded, Under‑held
When I look at total assets of the ETF market, commodities less than 2% of total assets. ETF investors definitely under weight
Alibaba Demand Fuels Rise of Chinese Memory Makers
Demand from Alibaba and Other Giants Boosts China’s Homegrown Memory Suppliers Wait, are the controls on memory "working" and did they make sense in the first place? https://t.co/c6dfq2skXK
Watch the Metric Near Critical 44 Threshold
FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
Buying Breakdowns, Selling at Breakout Levels—Missing the Move
You get that feeling the tape is heavy, like they want to open the floodgates. Then you remember how choppy it’s been — breakdowns get bought, only to be sold right at potential breakout levels. https://t.co/CD3aDoYpDA
Elevated IV and RV, Flat Term Structure, No VRP
Filtering across a liquid cross-section of ETFs and equities (and excluding earnings names) the Trade Ideas algo picks up the following. Note across the market IV and RV remains elevated, no VRP on avg based on our RV calcs. The...
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
One in Five Options Trades End Up Misguided
This is really something that comes up a lot (21% of the time in the past decade according to 35 liquid ETFs spanning many assets) and very easy to lure yourself into a misdirected option trade
Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights
Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...
Third Point Secures New, Undisclosed Stake in Generac
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
Airbnb Purchases Deliver Tax Breaks, Depreciation, Passive Income
The smartest clients I’ve helped buy Airbnbs purchased for Tax Benefits of owning Real Estate 100% Bonus depreciation Owning Long Term Passive Income Last
Trader Liquidates Payday Bets Across Multiple Stocks
Sold paydays today on many names $BX $MC $ONDS $SNOW $ZS and sold a rung of the ladder on $HOOD