Prophet Strategy Surges 1,982% Since 2008 Launch
On the day we launched Prophet publicly in December 2024, it was already up 1,640% from the date the strategy was first implemented in Dec '08. Now it's up 1,982% -- or ~20% since Dec '24. But the best is on the way. DM me or email Frank if you want in before we make any significant structural changes.
Iran Declares Hormuz Open, IRGC Hints Otherwise
The Strait of Hormuz may be open according to the Iranian government, but the IRGC seems to have different machinations. https://t.co/cvL7jYvGoa
OIH and XLE Surge; Oil Rally Just Beginning
🚨 UPDATE: On February 2nd I told you to buy OIH and XLE. Since then: OIH: +14% XLE: +10% Crude oil: 7-month highs And in my opinion, we’re just getting started. Here’s why I’m not selling yet:
Oil Surge Boosts
The decision tree for tonight - when markets open - follows from oil. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil rose 40%, which drove the Brazilian Real and other commodity exporters in Latin America a lot stronger. It weighed on...
Growth Stocks Thrive Outside Mag 7, Defying Bearish Outlook
There's nothing wrong with being defensive until we see better accumulation in the Nasdaq, but I'm not getting bearish because there are so many growth stocks (outside of the Mag 7) that are in strong uptrends. More here in this...
Carbon Markets Near Turning Point; Investors Unprepared
Carbon markets are at an inflection point. Policy momentum. Capital rotation. Tightening supply. Most investors aren’t positioned for what’s next. Read this before the crowd catches on: https://t.co/axCJ40q8bX cc: @LukeAOliver @kraneshares
Gold Poised Near $6k Amid Iran‑Israel Conflict
Gold closed Friday at $5,278. The all-time high is $5,595. That's $317 away. The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is retaliating. Iran vows to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is the biggest safe haven trigger since 2020. Fib extension...
Cautious on Small‑Cap After February Dividend Results
Four companies in my UK dividend share portfolio issued results in February, including an 8% yielder and a high quality FTSE 100 stock. In my monthly update I share my views and explain why I've become more cautious about one...
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
SONAR Tender Rejections Predict Trucking Stock Moves
The connection is clear: Large trucking equities trade based on forward trucking market conditions and the best signal is SONAR's Tender Rejections Chart: SONAR Truckload Rejections vs. JB Hunt Stock Price https://t.co/R8Mc1l5UyF
Goldman Slide Signals Hidden Atlantic Credit Crisis
Goldman Sachs down 7.5% in a single day. From $985 to $860 in three months. Meanwhile, a UK mortgage lender just collapsed. Private credit contagion is spreading across the Atlantic. This isn’t a correction. It’s a credit event hiding in plain sight.
2023 Spread Surge Pushes Mortgages to 7.17%
The worst levels of the spreads in 2023 resulted in 7.17% mortgage rates today instead of 5.99%. https://t.co/PkASya1lri
Hedge Funds Flock to SONAR Amid Rising Tender Rejections
This SONAR chart: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (blue) vs. Knight-Swift stock price (yellow). There is a reason that hedge funds buy SONAR and it is our fastest growing cohort. https://t.co/erT8QvKIr6
Awaiting Resolution of NVIDIA’s Weekly Price Range
Looking forward to the day this weekly range in NVIDIA resolves itself. 📺 Latest market thoughts here: https://t.co/EXexrJSfof $SPY $IWM $QQQ $NVDA https://t.co/MT0GCVoiFE
Asian Session Opens in 7 Hours, Risk Integration Begins
Just under 7 hours until the Asian session open and the markets can start working some of this risk into market exposure and hedging
AI, Private Credit, and Gold Shape US Economy
Was great to be on a panel down @iconnections_io in Miami hosted by @GuyAdami w/ @VD718 & Meredith Whitney. We discussed the U.S. consumer & economy & the impact of A.I. on markets. We hit "Private Credit" & "Gold is...
T‑Bills Avoid State Taxes, Boost Long‑Term Returns
Interest from HYSA is taxed at federal AND state/local level. But interest from T-Bills is only taxed at the federal level, saving you anywhere from 0-13% in state/local taxes. T-bills also generally have better yields. Small adjustments can make a big difference over...
Iran Conflict Will Expose Oil Market Fragility
IRAN WAR will test the vulnerability of oil markets - I got to write some thoughts in the Financial Times: https://t.co/L7TKTXxT7U
China Sales Plunge From Half to Just 3%
Former $FND CEO Tom Taylor, August 2021 - "Three years ago [in FY18], almost 50% of what we sold came out of China; today, it is less than 30%." Q4 FY25 call - "China represented ~3% of our fourth quarter receipts." https://t.co/9Bv96S1bvH
S&P 500 Firms' Average Tenure Keeps
Average tenure of companies in the S&P 500 index keeps declining - Apollo's Slok https://t.co/rPrEl7agfl
Late-February S&P Dips Historically Precede Major Lows
Looking at the past 20 years, it is perfectly normal for S&P 500 weakness in late February and into mid-March, then a major low forms. Yes, 2009 and 2020 are a big reason why, still worth noting. https://t.co/di2DeekJx8
VIX Spikes Signal Potential SPX Plunge at Open
Going back to collapse of the Internet bubble, serious VIX spikes coincide with big drops from 52-week highs for $SPX. Second chart is a closer look at current times. Do we go down hard when futures open later today?? https://t.co/XnG2Iu29Fd
Thailand's Deflation Linked to Sub‑Golden Money Supply Growth
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
EU Digital Euro Stalls Amid Offline‑only Push
Brussels proposed a digital form of cash that could be used both online and offline. Navarrete, by contrast, is pushing for an offline-only model. More delays. Can Europe break free of Visa and Mastercard? MEPs stall digital euro https://t.co/SLW3jTmnrB
Oil Spike Lifts Brazil Real, Sinks Turkish Lira
When markets open tonight, oil prices will spike, which will help oil exporters and hurt oil importers. In Q1 '22, oil prices spiked almost 40%. Single biggest beneficiary - by far - was Brazil's Real, which rose 20%. Turkish Lira...
Chain Stock Pricey but Has Expansion Potential
I really like this chain. The stock was never cheap but probably has expansion potential.
Get Andrew Aziz’s Bestselling Day Trading Book Free
FREE Book: Andrew Aziz @BearBullTraders’ #1 bestselling day trading book for over 10 years: How to Day Trade for a Living is FREE on Amazon Kindle today. https://t.co/CMtQsmFMhY It is the perfect book for new traders and those looking to sharpen...
Korea and Taiwan Set for Massive Chip Surpluses
If there isn't a new energy shock (a big if), the surpluses of the chip exporting powers (Korea and Taiwan) are going to be absolutely stunning this year. 1/2 https://t.co/N2A7u4k1ai
Free Guide to Mastering Precise Fibonacci Trading Patterns
Here’s a link below to a FREE Fibonacci Trading Strategy Guide (ebook): 📈📉 Learn the 6 Fibonacci Pattern Types that Create the Most Precise Price Levels, Targets, and Reversal Zones for traders. Click here: ⬇️ https://t.co/62UAf4L9jv Discover the 5 types that aren't...
Finding Solid Dividend Growth Stocks in US & Europe
We went back to basics on the latest DividendTalk by covering how to find solid dividend growth stocks in both the US and the Europe. Worth a listen if you're building your watchlist 🙌 Tune in here: 🔗 https://open.spotify.com/episode/30VKC7ETTzOBI65Lfl5dnD?si=OtYzweq5RrKPJUEyQi876A Feel...
Identify the Top Trade for a Middle East Conflict
What is the #1 trade you want to be holding when a Middle East war breaks out over the weekend? ⬇️
War-Driven Correction: Is India's Market Already Priced In?
Friday's closing correction was also on the basis of war. So, what do you think? How much will fall tomorrow? Or has the war's impact already been discounted in the Indian stock market?
Discipline, Structure, and Smart Money Drive Profits
Precision. Patience. Structure. This FVG Entry Setup is built around smart money concepts, liquidity sweeps, and session timing. The focus is simple: wait for displacement, identify the imbalance, and execute with confirmation. No chasing. No guessing. Just structure, order flow, and discipline. Master...
Dubai's Woes Ripple Into India’s $45 Bn Remittances
Problems in Dubai are not just for people staying there - it spills over to India - we get $45 bn of remittances from the Middle East each year.
China's Treasury Sales Hit Lowest Since 2008
⚠️China is indeed DUMPING US Treasuries: China’s holdings of US government bonds dropped -$75.5 BILLION in 2025, to $683.5 billion, the lowest since September 2008, the Financial Crisis. Since the 2013 peak, holdings have fallen -$633.2 BILLION.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
Monday Marks Final Day of Tender Offer
Re-upping this. Monday is the last day of the current tender offer. Maybe I'll put out an English version, but it's in my Cui Bono piece on Smartkarma last week.
Discover Nifty Futures' Hidden Implied Financing Rate
Everyone watches Nifty50 futures price. Some track IV in options trading... >> Almost nobody tracks the hidden interest rate inside Nifty futures. >> It’s called Implied Financing. And once you understand how implied financing drives Nifty50 futures, options pricing, and volatility structure… You’ll never look...
China's 2025 Economy: Hot Sectors Stuck Amid Cooling
“The Chinese economy in 2025…is like a giant machine where large parts are beginning to cool down, while a considerable part remains at high temperature. But the temperature of this part is difficult to conduct to the cooling parts.” @ChinaFile https://t.co/oC1Pwzm8je
China Home Prices Plunge, Property Slump Hits Growth
China new home prices fell at fastest pace in 3+ yrs (Feb). Macro: property slump drags growth. Key factors: weak demand, limited policy relief. Risks: wealth erosion, consumption hit. Trade: short Chinese property developers/RE ETFs 🔻 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD,...
IRGC Closes Strait of Hormuz, Threatening 20% Oil Flow
🚨 IRAN WAR UPDATE — MARCH 1, 2026 🚨 Khamenei is confirmed dead by Iranian state media. But the bigger story: the IRGC has formally closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping firms are instructing vessels to shelter in place. About 20%...
Iran War Urges China to Fast‑track Renewables, Shun Coal
Thinking ahead... does this push China to further speed up the adoption of renewables + batteries and make it even more reluctant to wind down coal. The Iran war is an object lesson in a) American power (which shale has...
Portfolio Gains 6.8% on Korean Surge, Eye Japan SaaS
The portfolio's value rose by +6.8% in February 2026, driven by a skyrocketing Korean stock market. Opportunities in Japan SaaS and luxury wristwatches. https://t.co/dYm3oOEyPD
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
US Tech Valuations Hit Peak, Biggest Drop Since Dot‑Com
⚠️US technology stocks have PEAKED: The ratio of US Technology, Media, and Telecommunications to the US stock market ex. tech has fallen sharply over the last few weeks. This marks the most violent move since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble BURST.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Wait for Confirmation, Not Early Breakouts, in ORB
Most traders lose trading the opening range break because they enter too early. The ORB strategy is not about predicting the breakout. It’s about waiting for confirmation. Let the opening range form. Wait for price to break structure with momentum. Avoid entries near major supply...
Berkshire's Capital Allocation: Focus, Integrity, and Discipline
Berkshire’s capital allocation principles and strategy: Invest in businesses that we thoroughly understand, with durable advantages and long-term economic prospects; Partner with high integrity leaders who understand their customers and act like owners; Avoid businesses that undermine the fabric of society or...
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
Apex Trade Fund Faces Largest Drop, Sunday Open
This is the biggest drop we've had in a long time from @ApexTradeFund - It's not even close. This Sunday open. Be ready. 👀🔥
Emergency Sunday Trading Session at 6 PM ET
⏰ Emergency trading session on Sunday You won't want to trade the market open alone Join us at 6pm ET / 23 GMT to trade Gold $GC Nasdaq $QQQ $NQ Oil , Forex 👇 You wont' want to miss it. Subscribe and hit...