SPX Implied ~6800; P/E Drops 2 Points Since Nov 2025
With SPX implied near 6800, the P/E multiple is down almost 2pts from the November 2025 high https://t.co/bDmapKAmlt
Markets Rebound Fast After Geopolitical Shocks—Buy the Dip
Markets have survived every geopolitical shock in history Pearl Harbor took 307 days to recover. Kuwait took 189. 9/11 took 31. The average? 47 days Today the US and Israel struck Iran. History says buy the dip - but how long...
Vol and Bond Markets Signal Inside News Ahead
Spot vol beta in the VIX complex was relatively hot yesterday. Nothing insane, but more towards the high end of what we usually see. S&P closed down about 60bps, VIX up about a vol point /VX up about 4%. Strong...
Call Skew Lowers Oil Spreads, Polymarket Binaries Boost Value
I wrote about Polymarket Iran markets and crude vols last week but didn't cover oil call spreads vs the odds. Jacked call skew makes call spreads cheaper in oil but the presence of Polymarket binaries creates a bid for them...
Docebo's Net Remains Strong Despite Withholding Tax
If you haven't picked up these odd-lots yet there's still time to next week. Docebo's net should be nice even with some withholding tax headwinds. See details & disclaimers in my 'stack post:
Semiconductor Boom Wipes $450B, Bonds Rally, Gold Soars
The best earnings report in semiconductor history erased $450 billion in two days. Bonds rallied through hot inflation. Gold hit its best month since 2012. Defensives surged while tech sold off. The regime is changing. https://t.co/n37OTbPZWx
Private Credit Crash Already Evident in BDC NAV Discounts
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...
Hybrid Allocation Beats SPY: +2.6% Feb, 1.73 Sharpe
Monthly hybrid allocation signals +2.6% in February, versus a loss of 0.9% for $SPY ETF. YTD +6.8% versus 0.6% for SPY ETF. Sharpe ratio is 1.73 since Jan 2020 vs. 0.88 for SPY. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/307eeSFnzN
Shift to GARP and Solid Balance Sheets Now
This chart is a classic, but let’s move that "We Are Here" pin 📍 Where would you say we are in the cycle right now? The Early-Cycle easy gains are over, I think. It's time to focus on GARP (Growth at a...
Holding Cash Guarantees Inflation‑Driven Underperformance
Sitting in cash is the opposite of investing, and invites long-term, dramatic underperformance. Holding cash is basically begging the Fed and Congress to light your money on fire via inflation. https://t.co/QMd0bkOkkZ
Focus on After‑Tax Return, Not Just Tax Minimization
The goal isn’t to minimize taxes. The goal is to maximize after-tax return. Say you have $100k in 0.1% savings account. You earn $100 interest, pay $24 of tax. Now say you have $100k in 3.5% savings account. You earn $3.5k interest,...
Q2Metals Hits All‑time High in Lithium Exploration
Check out our latest #RockStockRecap + update with the lithium industry’s most exciting spodumene exploration story @Q2Metals which closed yesterday at an all-time high. $QTWO.V 👇👇
Berkshire Cash Dips, Profits Plunge 30%
Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile drops to $373.31bn in 4Q down from $381.7bn in the previous quarter following after a rather disappointing quarter. Operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO, as insurance underwriting earnings slumped. That metric fell by...
Markel Confident 2025 Results Demonstrate Ongoing Shareholder Value
Markel 2025 Shareholder Letter: "I hope you share our confidence that the 2025 results, and those over longer time periods, provide a strong case for the value we have and will continue to create for our shareholders." https://t.co/vcbR3seqEk
Active Managers Cut US Equity Exposure to Five-Month Low
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by Active Investment Managers. This week's NAAIM Exposure Index number is 74.93, the lowest reading since May. What do you think these folks are all so scared about? https://t.co/UbFEeY61e7
Iran Bans Hormuz Traffic, yet Tankers Still Sail
Iran is sending out warnings on VHF announcing the banning of all ships from the Strait of Hormuz. However, traffic is still moving. What's Going on with Shipping will be monitoring traffic through the Strait. https://t.co/0rPIFY825Q
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
CEO Emphasizes Equity Focus; Weschler Handles 6% Portfolio
“At Berkshire, equity investments are fundamental to our capital allocation activities; responsibility ultimately resides with me as CEO. Ted Weschler manages about 6% of our investments, including a portion of the portfolio formerly overseen by Todd Combs…” - Greg Abel
Nifty Falls 0.6% in Feb, Continuing Weak Start Trend
The Nifty does a -0.6% in Feb, maintaining the tradition of bad Jan+Feb in four of the last five years. https://t.co/V0aQo9OYRS
Berkshire's Cash Isn’t a Sign of Investment Retreat
“Many times in Berkshire’s history, some observers have suggested that our substantial cash position signals a retreat from investing. It does not…” - Greg Abel
Coherent Scores 98 RS Rating, Momentum Model Entry
Coherent showing a 98 RS Rating, healthy trend, and steady earnings growth seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. It's in our QR Momentum model right now with a trailing exit zone around 220. $COHR #IBDPartner https://t.co/z5fR24UoO0
IGV Rebounds From 52‑week Low, Signaling Sector Turn
Software ETF $IGV tagged 52 week-year lows and then reversed hard by Friday. We break down what it means for the sector, how it fits into the broader tape, and a few ideas we’re watching to kick off March. 📺 Watch...
Price Is All That Matters, Says Market Technicians
“The three most important indicators are price, price, price.” Clint Sorenson explains how technicians cut through narratives and stay aligned with what the market is actually doing. Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast is now live. https://t.co/G8eAZWdOcL https://t.co/HlZFSdvMf7
Gold +22%, Silver +31% Amid Global Chaos
The chaos doesn't stop. There's been Greenland, a yield spike in Japan, private credit ructions and AI. Now it's Iran. Easy to miss the forest for the trees and that's precious metals. Gold is up 22% this year. Silver 31%....
Community Buzzes Over 5‑Minute Macro Pro Q&A Clip
Our community is buzzin' about this 5 min clip from this week's Macro Pro Q&A Show https://t.co/MxH68qpK7Y
Master End-to-End Python Algo Trading: Roadmap, Skills, Tools
Build an End-to-End Python Algorithmic Trading System (complete roadmap + skills + tools) Bookmark this.
March Markets Driven by Existing Forces, No Policy Shifts
March 2026 Monthly: March seems to be more about the unfolding of current forces driving the capital markets, rather than new forces or policies. All the G10 central banks but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet in March, and...
The #1 Mistake All Traders Keep Making
The #1 Biggest Mistakes traders make Jakub shares his insights with me @iFXEXPO @jakub_ceo @fortraderscom
Iran Strike May Push Oil to $73.90 Resistance.
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next...
Messy “Sexy” Sectors Falter; “Boring” ETFs Shine
The Stock Market Right Now The sexy are messy - $XLK $XLY $XLF The boring are beautiful - $XLV $XLB $XLE $XLP $XLI
Recapping a Coast‑to‑Coast Lithium Tour in Podcast
Sun coming up on a redeye home from Reno after a long #lithium week stretching from meetings with investors & producers in south Florida to northern Nevada to see Thacker Pass. Will do a solo podcast to recap what I...
Equally‑Weighted S&P 500 Sets Weekly All‑Time Highs All February
The equally-weighted S&P500 closed at a new all-time high every single week in February, including yesterday. https://t.co/2lfKqKIPyk
TLT Breaks Yearly Pivot, Bullish Toward 93.07
$TLT - Closed the month above the yearly pivot at 88.18. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 93.07. The 2nd yearly resistance is 98.98. It looks bullish at the moment but you never know how high...
Poland Cuts Copper Tax, KGHM Eyes 2026 Output Boost
Poland’s KGHM targets higher copper output in 2026 as Poland cuts its copper extraction tax from January. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/polands-kghm-targets-higher-copper.html
PAX Gold Surges Past $5,500 as Spot Gold Nears Record
PAX Gold up about $200-250 today from the close of spot gold on Friday. At one point was north of $5,500. Plausible spot gold retests all-time highs early Monday https://t.co/dFRK76xspa
Silver RSI Near 1980 Peak, May Surge Past 94
$Silver - Despite the 40% drawdown from the January high, February was the 10th up month in a row, which never happened before. The 14 month RSI is now at 93.42, its highest level since the 1980 top. My expectation...
Gold Breaks Yearly Resistance, Targets 5764 Despite Record RSI
$Gold - The 14 month RSI closed at 95.67, its highest level in history, but it probably doesn't matter since gold closed the month above the 1st yearly resistance at 5043, and is headed to the 2nd yearly resistance at...
DXY Near 3‑Year Low, Breakout Needed for Confirmation
$DXY - Potentially made a 3 year cycle low in January. February was only a small up month so it's not confirmed yet. A breakout above 100.39 is needed to confirm that the 3 year cycle low is in. A...
First‑Principles Approach Unlocks Multi‑Bagger Stock Success
A blast from the past. I gave this presentation at @smallcapdisc in 2023. Multi-Bagger First Principles https://t.co/YJT8idrZf0
Record US Crude Exports Threaten Brent Price Rally
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
Predict the Next Global Shift with Real‑Time Intelligence
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
Speed Over Screen: Practice Multi‑Ticker Simulations Daily
Trading multiple tickers isn't about screen space; it's about processing speed. 🧠⚡ Weekend multi-sim practice on @tradesviz Journal+Simulator is mandatory to keep that mental muscle memory sharp. Staring at static charts doesn't train your brain to find live correlations or manage cognitive...
Prefer Horizontal Trendline Breakouts Over Discretionary Diagonals
It’s better to focus on horizontal trendline breakouts rather than diagonal trendline breakouts. Diagonal lines are too discretionary while horizontal lines are more quantifiable.
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Capital vs Labor Income Drives Wealth Gap, Not Salary
You’re earning the wrong type of income, and your salary is the proof. Two people earning $200K. Same income, completely different financial realities. There is a distinction between capital income and labor income reveals why the wealth gap isn’t about how much...
Druckenmiller Bets on Higher Rates, Cuts AI, Values Sizing
Key takeaways from Druckenmiller - Sees potential for higher long rates thanks to productivity growth - Out of the AI trade at this point - What he learnt from Soros was sizing - Visualizes the future 18-24 months out - Sells if valuation becomes...
India Poised to Gain From U.S. Tariff Shift
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
Lithium Demand Rebounds 25% as Low‑cost Supply Tightens Price Gap
Lithium bottom: demand +25% as EV/ESS rebound; SQM+Codelco JV raises low-cost supply, tightens cost curve; prices ≈70% below 2022 — overweight low-cost lithium producers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Gold Hoard Surges, Likely Underreported
🔥We are probably not bullish on gold enough: China's official gold holdings are now worth a record $370 BILLION, doubling in just 1.5 years. The value has more than TRIPLED since 2022. China is buying 10 TIMES more gold than it officially reports👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/china-sold-a-significant-amount-of-us-treasuries-in-2025
2026 Focus: Refinancing Over Appreciation for CA CRE
California CRE owners: 2026 is about refinancing — not appreciation. Higher rates + tighter DSCR + lower valuations = equity pressure. If you want to stress-test your property’s refinance position, DM me “REFI.” #CaliforniaRealEstate #CREInvesting #CommercialFinance #RealEstateStrategy #marketshift