Prepare, Don’t Predict: Build Market Flexibility
Howard Marks: “You can’t predict the future. You can prepare for it.” Takeaway: Build flexibility, not forecasts. Stop trying to predict the market. Start preparing for it. 📉➡️📈
Premium Alert: Crucial SPX Chart Revealed
New premium article. Price Action Lab Alert: An Important Chart $SPX Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/newKm1lAHt
Market Misprices IGV Despite Strong AI Potential
The market may be wrong about $IGV, which is down 30% in past few months. Our tech analysts went through and graded stocks for AI vulnerability and AI potential, a select few got green on both (list below) and guess...
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
Genovese Lifts AAOI Target to $125, Slams Rival Analyst
Mike Genovese at Rosenblatt, the goat on $AAOI , takes his target up to $125 A name I was sized up from $9 and $13 level (im flat as of 2 days ago) Kang over at Briley should be ashamed of his...
SPX Futures Slip, 6859 Key Support Test
$SPX futures were -30 as 6915 failed to hold, and now we see if 6859 (yesterday’s low) holds or not. Tricky action—lots of range-type trades, but no real traction. https://t.co/rUISq4Qyt5
Upside Breakout From NR7/3‑bar; Follow‑through Monday
W: upside BO from NR7/3bar started in early AM. First day of a BO should have follow-through the next trading day (Monday). https://t.co/E4GE1Uic8v
Range Bottom Becomes Key Decision Point for Cave Fill Repair
Cave fill repair SP NQ followed by back into range...bottom end of range now main decision point https://t.co/rHNVOdt6CT
Market Looks Weak; Trade Long Cautiously Today
Not getting a great feeling here early, market looking real sick across many names this AM, trade cautiously LONG.
Emerging Markets Resume Currency Interventions Amid Falling Dollar
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
Money Market Surge, Equity Inflows Cool, Break
Equity Inflows cooling Money Market inflows surge NAAIM lowest since May 2025 AAII Bull-Bear very tight spread Finally seeing some key elements needed in order to break the chop and have incremental buyers Been noting since Dec. that it would be hard for markets to...
Washington Hasn't Demanded Station Sales for Nexstar‑TEGNA Merger
D.C. Memo: Nexstar CEO Sook – Washington Has Not Said Company Needs to Sell Stations to Close TEGNA Deal | $NXST @NXSTMediaGroup $TGNA @TEGNA https://t.co/md3Cz4tI5F
Cool PPI Print May Lower Yields, Boost Tech
February 27, 2026 📊 Insight: PPI at 8:30 = inflation read for producers. Cooler print could push yields lower and support growth/tech. Hot number likely pressures rates higher and weighs on high-multiple names. Watch $DXY and 10Y reaction first 5–10 mins. Economic...
PAYX Leads AI-Driven HCM Shift, March‑April Puts Stall
$PAYX was one of the earliest poster childs for AI replacing HCM Some Mar. and Apr. puts holding still https://t.co/hKo3OHuqOM
Market Down, Yet Breadth Shows Unexpected Green Strength
Yesterday was a down day for SPX and Naz Comp. So what is all this green on my screen of breadth numbers? https://t.co/Sww1AmkNJo
Treasury Yields Hit Year Low as Credit Spreads Surge
Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.
Metals May Lift Commodities, Yet Risks Favor Decline
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Metals Enter Bull Market’s High‑Price Phase, Spark Speculation
From Top Commodity Value to Stretched Speculation - Metals 2026: The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex represents the top-performing sector over time, but metals may have entered the high-price cure stage of a bull market. The highest-velocity rallies since...
PBOC Eases FX Forwards, Stalls Yuan Rally Amid USD Consolidation
$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
India Cuts Coal Imports, Prioritizes Security Over Climate
India prioritizes national security and economic growth above aggressive, ideologically driven climate policies seen in some European countries. India seeks to cut power sector coal imports by 30% this year, sources say https://t.co/bA7W0ywe6Y
Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data
The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...
China Faces Capital Shortage, World's Least Crowded Trade
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Equities Slip, Yields Dip Below 4%, Dollar Softens
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.
US Gas Stocks Near Seasonal Norm, Prices Dip Below $3
U.S. GAS inventories depleted much more slowly than normal for the time of year in the middle part of February, largely erasing the previous storage deficit and causing futures prices to slip below $3 per million British thermal units to...
Buy Stocks Breaking Out, Not Those Near Their Lows
“So the first thing I learned about how to get superior performance is not to buy stocks that are near their lows, but to buy stocks that are coming out of broad bases and beginning to make new highs.” — William...
China Realizes Mao’s Dream, Leads Global South
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
Trade Pullbacks, Not Candle Tops: Smart Money Entry
99% of traders lose because they enter here ❌ Smart money enters here ✅ After a clean Break of Structure, price pulls back into the Fair Value Gap + Order Block. That’s where the real entry is. Not at the top of the...
Nifty Slips Below 25,200 Amid US‑India Tensions
Nifty goes below 25200 . Sudden fall in last 30 minutes. Friday Closing Same Action. #usirantensions #stockmarket
Inside Wall Street’s Top Morning Routine Revealed
Be a Fly on the Wall of Wall Street’s Best Morning Process https://t.co/bh1gg4mzGh via @hedgeye
SPY Stalls at 693, Market Range Stagnates
Good morning. Mixed markets around the World. $spx futures -17 $spy got rejected at $693 to break $690 to see $684 area. We’ll see if they holds, or not. Let’s end the week making the right decisions This range...
GHH Shows Debt Reduction, Attractive Valuation Ahead
#GHH interesting Update with signs of improvement. Net Debt down a little to £28m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 16.9 falling to 14.2 and fwd Divvy 1.8% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 5% jump today. Worth considering. I don't hold.
BBOX Offers 5% Yield, Growth Drivers, No Hold
#BBOX decent statement. Not much Discount to NAV but ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 4.7% rising to 5%; several growth drivers so definitely interesting. I don't hold.
RAT Beats Expectations; Dividend up, Buyback Announced
#RAT results and forward statements read well. ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.6 falling to 11.8 and fwd Divvy 4.5% rising to 4.9% BEFORE 5% jump today. Nice Dividend and starting an additional Buyback. I don't hold.
SPX's Worst 3‑Month Relative Performance Since 2001
Reiterating Short #Bag7 with OCT 2025 having big echoes of Q4 1999 "Last 3 months have been the worst period to own $SPX relative to its equal weight index since 2001" @t1alpha https://t.co/AgkFgy0aqK
Global FX Volatility Fades as USD Signal Narrows
In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3
New World Development Posts 50% Revenue Drop, Loss
New World Development Interim Half Year Report ending Dec 31st, 2025: • revenues recorded a year-on-year decrease of approximately 50% to HK$8,391 million • profit recorded a year-on-year decrease of 25% to HK$5,038 million • loss attributable to shareholders amounted to...
Eurozone Inflation Dovish, yet France‑Spain Surprises Challenge Doves
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...
Four‑Step Model: From Liquidity Grab to Target
Entry model to focus on ↓ TS → CISD → IFVG → DOL • TS: Liquidity grab sets the trap. • CISD: Market shifts direction. • IFVG: Entry zone appears. • DOL: Confirms overall bias. Flow: Grab → Shift → Entry → Target
Duolingo Targets 100 M Users Amid Modest Growth
Duolingo 2026 guidance: Revenue growth and EBITDA margin a slight disappointment, but does everything to double daily active users from 50 million to 100 million. 400 million buyback program initiated ✅ Now at 10.8x EV/EBITDA $DUOL
South Korea Single-Stock ETFs Set for Summer Approval
South Korea single-stock ETFs will likely be approved by the summer, just before Interactive Brokers starts offering access https://t.co/WpRK4ten0F.
Massive HDFC Bank Sell‑off Signals Underlying Issue
So you are telling me I should say the most sacred bank in India, HDFC Bank, and buy PSU banks with an excellent track record? - What am I not drinking that I do not get it? Investors are...
Daily FII Flows Mislead; Trust Wave Analysis Instead
Even until yesterday, you could hear the media talking about FII flows being positive for FEB and supporting the market. I give zero credit to daily flows to decide which way the market will head. But just an update after...
China's True Trade Surplus Far Larger Than Reported
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe
BAP.ax Plunges 48%, Confirming Trend‑driven Surprises
$BAP.ax down 48% today. Surprises tend to happen in the direction of the prevailing trend. https://t.co/8MXlffwnuZ
Strategic Lithium Reserve Needed to Stabilize Supply
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
US ITC to Study Impact of Stripping China’s Trade Status
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Korea Faces Speculative Bubbles Approximately Every Five Years
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj