Closed Hormuz Could Push Brent Above $220 per Barrel
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan
The US intelligence community now assesses that China has no fixed timeline for unification with Taiwan and that no invasion of Taiwan is planned for 2027. I'm no China expert but this dovetails with how I see Xi and the upside...
Predictable Demand Cuts Valuation Uncertainty, Boosts Returns
"Predictable demand reduces valuation uncertainty over long horizons." Predictability is one of the most underrated drivers of long-term returns.
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Maximize Your ISA: 9 Hacks to Fit £29k
I’ve pulled together a video on 9 ISA hacks that you need to know before the end of the tax year. Including how to put £29,000 inside an ISA in one tax year… 👀 More below 👇 9 ISA Secrets...
Florida Inventory Drop Easier; Comps Soften Through Mid‑June
Also, be mindful that the inventory decline in Florida YoY was working from an easier bar to do so. Just like the national data, the YoY comps get easier up until mid-June. https://t.co/z4GnIpxb5B
China Onshore Stocks Crowned Top Asset Amid Conflict
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
Income Required for $289.9K Home with 3.5% FHA
How Much You Need to Make To Buy a $289,900.00 with a 3.5% down FHA loan
Only a Quarter of 5% Dips Become Corrections, Rarely Bears
Since WWII, there have been 105 5% pullbacks (not including the current one). About 25% of those turned into a correction and only 12.4% turned into a bear market. https://t.co/kvY5qL4H4P
DSTs May Be Riskier Than Traditional Installment Sales
The Problem With Using A Deferred Sales Trust To Defer Taxes On A Business Sale: Closer scrutiny of the DST strategy raises significant red flags that aren't included in the sales pitch. The characteristic that is needed to make DSTs work...
US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
Rising Risks: Rate Hikes and Aggressive Cuts Both Escalate
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
High‑beta Stocks Outshine Low‑volatility Amid Market Rally
As @JC_ParetsX recently mentioned, it is peculiar to see high beta outperforming low volatility during this recent surge lower. Not what you'd expect to see if things were as bad as they keep telling us. https://t.co/rGvxOprdO0
March 2022 Rally Shattered Downtrend, Defied Rate‑Hike Fears
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Silver Bubble, Gold Bull, Then Massive Market Crash
Exactly as I warned in advance - TWICE now: Mega Silver Bubble Meets Mega Gold Bull Market - BEFORE a 7-sigma downdraft https://t.co/8hEosW0Op2 and just last week: Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset Now - BEFORE the latest sell-off https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA #MarketTiming
Earnings Rise, Prices Fall: Energy Costs Lag Impact
S&P 500 earnings growth: +13% year-to-date. S&P 500 price return: -3.24%. Strong fundamentals. Falling prices. What's actually happening? The economy doesn't have a fundamental problem. It has an energy problem. Oil at $110 is a forward tax on margins and consumption that...
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Read Filings: Unlock Hidden Profits in Plain Sight
Reading the filings really can make you a whole lot of money. It’s all in there.
Home Prices Poised to Dip Below 2022 Levels by Summer
Home prices sure look like they could be back under 2022 levels by late summer. *This is list prices, which is subject to a shift in the mix of homes available, but it a direct measure of how much homes cost,...
Brent’s $110 Price Already Reflects Hefty Risk Premium
There's so many people talking about oil going to $150 or $200, but those numbers are a stretch because Brent around $110 already embeds a big risk premium. Big thanks to @paulkrugman for having me on his podcast to talk...
Long‑Term Treasuries Outperform Stocks, Contrarian Bond Bet Wins
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
Tech and Financial P/E Ratios Dip Below April 2025 Levels
More from @DualityResearch... Tech & Financials P/E ratios now below their April 2025 closing levels https://t.co/dHpAkDVnQw
Market Faces Critical Crash Support, Selling Pressure Rises
Selling Into Critical Crash Level Support Poor breadth, rising yields, fragile support levels. Selling pressure builds as crash support zones come into focus. A technical review & why $SPX $6508 & $QQQ $578 matter. https://t.co/clgEWxEHum
S&P 500's Top Ten Dominate
GS: Concentration of S&P 500 market cap and earnings in the 10 largest index constituents... jaws are clamping down a bit https://t.co/UX5qVWlYho
NYSE A‑D Top Signals Mild 2026 S&P Dip
The NYSE and $SPX advance-decline lines topped in late February. There was no divergence at the top(an A-D line top before the S&P 500 top). Prior to every 4 year or 7 year cycle high in the past except one,...
Current Rates Far Below Worst‑case Mortgage Spread Scenarios
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53% If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025,...
Preserve Capital: Align Portfolio for Conflict‑driven Downturns
Your portfolio at all times needs to be positioned to preserve capital. During times of conflict this is important. Too many investors realize too late that their positions are high risk and not aligned to survive the downturns that might...
Nikkei Rejects Gas Subsidies, Calls for Conservation
Japan’s top business newspaper comes out to oppose additional subsidies on gasoline prices (which hit a record this month) 🇯🇵 ⛽️ The policy will support consumption in a period of tight supply Instead, the Nikkei calls for energy conservation (and for Tokyo...
Harvard Cancer Researcher Delivers 2,000% Options Gains
Today I'm premiering my interview with Tito Adhikary @GnT_Trades A Harvard Cancer Researcher turned Options Trader Tito returned over 2,000% in the 2025 USIC trading growth stocks with options. Here's a quick preview 👇 https://t.co/2X9kxXvqkq
Sanctions Relief Risks Oil Drop, Treasury Turns Trader
Bessent is trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through sanctions relief. 140M barrels of Iranian oil. A temporary lift. Geopolitical chess. If it works, oil falls. If it fails, $110 looks cheap. The Treasury Sec is now an oil trader. Welcome to...
MSFT Approaches 200‑Week MA, Eyes $367 Support
$MSFT is close to hitting its 200 week MA at $378. The target for the next major low is probably a bit lower: the 1st yearly support pivot at $367. https://t.co/AqEanatkFt
Export Ban Would Cripple US Production, Swell Inventories
Oil expert Stephen Schork on the potential US oil export ban: "An export ban would be catastrophic for US oil production bc. all it would do is pent up more supply here in the US of oil we don't necessarily use......
Top 10 Stocks Lose $850B in Two Weeks
The top 10 largest stocks in the world are now worth a combined $24.3 Trillion down from $25.15T 2 weeks ago
Market Regime Shift: Oil $112, Gold Crash, S&P Below 200‑Day
I just dropped my US Equity Market Weekly Intelligence Report on Substack - Oil at $112. - Gold’s historic crash. - S&P just broke below the 200-day MA. This week just triggered a full market regime shift heading into 2026. Read the full breakdown on...
Gold's Fastest Rally Since 1980 Signals Bull Market
$5,000 Gold Stretched Akin to 1980, 2011 Highs - Highlighting the extreme velocity of gold's rally, the store of value at the end of February reached the greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980 and lowest ever vs. the...
Close Below 200MA Signals Bearish Trend – Cut Equity
Finance 101: When the Market Closes Below the 200MA – A Classic Bearish Signal When the closing price drops below the 200-day Moving Average (200MA), it’s one of the most respected long-term bearish signals in technical analysis. The 200MA smooths out...
Trim Bad Trades Like Fasting: Discipline Over Willpower
I lost 100 pounds through fasting. Not willpower. Discipline. Markets teach the same lesson. The positions that hurt you most are the ones you won't let go of. Fasting is cutting what you don't need. Trading is no different. Most investors are obese...
Oil’s $175 Hype Ignored by Topping Chart Signals
I know you all are excited in a perverse way for oil to hit $175 per barrel, but oil stock charts are overwhelmingly giving off topping and rolling over signals.
Small‑cap Star Delivers 1,670% 10‑year Return
It's time to revisit the case of a small cap star that has returned +1670% over the last 10 years and operating stronger than ever... post coming on premium feed
WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days
Yes, but there is more to it than just that..... such as the $27 spread in CLK26/CLK28 May 26 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $98.23 May 28 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $71.23
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Saving Naira Isn't Investing: Inflation Eats Your Money
The most dangerous financial habit in Nigeria is saving money in a Naira account and calling it an investment. You are not growing your money. You are watching inflation eat it slowly while you feel responsible for being disciplined. There is a very...
QQQ Trades 7 Points Above AVWAP Target
$QQQ A/H 7 points right off the potential main target Friday, that AVWAP from 2025 lows been highlighting (pink line) https://t.co/8ll74fb0fg
S&P 500 and June E‑Mini Breach Key Support, Risk Downside
Both S&P500 and S&P June E-Mini Futures looked to have violated levels that could lead to additional downside. https://t.co/lo2FDEAZl2
Brent Prices Signal Ongoing Iran Conflict, WTI Lags
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Rising Oil Prices May Trigger an Economic Recession
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X