Large Homes Driving Spring Price Surge in Market
Larger homes are starting to get into contract. The dotted line represents preliminary sales for February and pendings that will close in March. We typically see a spring uptick in prices, and some of that has to do with the size of homes. https://t.co/44pNQPqtaq
Money Supply Surge Keeps Precious Metals Bull Market Early
The U.S. money supply has soared nearly 5x since 2000, pushing the cost of living significantly higher — yet most people still prefer dollars over gold & silver. That means the precious metals bull market is still very young,
SOLS Tightens Post‑
$SOLS Very tight after the earnings move. AI, nuclear theme pick and shovel. Is this in the spirit in of a high tight flag? https://t.co/KuYurm4dQy
Earnings Beats Keep 40‑Month Bull Market Alive
The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has...
France Revives Interventionist
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
Value Cyclicals at Mid-Cycle Earnings, Not Peaks
"Cyclicals should be valued on mid-cycle earnings, not peak performance." Most investors overpay at the top. Don’t be one of them. 📉
Micro Microsoft RDR Pivot Offers Day‑Trade Opportunities
If u weren’t caught. There was a tiny tactical RDR in $msft for cash flow. $383.10 was the pivot. It might not have been more than a day trade. But some make a living finding those https://t.co/Ki0yu8TXyn
Broad Market Slump Pushes Dozens to 52‑week Lows
All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today Adobe $ADBE Palo Alto $PANW Trade Desk $TTD Novo Nordisk $NVO Autodesk $ADSK $ADP Accenture $ACN Dutch Bros $BROS Check Point $CHKP Cognizant $CTSH $EPAM Fair Isaac $FICO Flutter Entertainment $FLUT Infosys $INFY Blue Owl $OWL Paychex $APYX Planet Fitness $PLNT Atlassian $TEAM Toast $TOST Zillow $Z
Mag 7 Range Holds; Break Below Could Trigger 10% Drop
Whether this benign broadening will continue depends largely on whether the Mag 7 can hold on to its trading range. So far it has, but should support be taken out at the range lows I could easily see another 10%...
Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of...
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
Unexpected $LE Dip, but Solid IRR Outlook Before Q4 Earnings
Surprised to see $LE dip so much the past few days. No news afaict. I'm not allocating more here presently given current size, but seems a solid expected IRR special situation as we approach the 4Q earnings where presumably management...
S&P 500's Tight Range Signals Imminent Breakout
Over the past four months, the S&P 500 has traded in less than a 7% range. This is about as tight as things usually get, meaning a bigger move is likely over the coming months. Will it be up or down? https://t.co/vzY9JAuphI
PBOC Buying $100B Monthly to Curb Yuan Surge
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
MELI Smashes Q4 Forecast with 42% TPV Surge
MELI posting a very strong Q4 2025: • Revenue $8.8B vs Est. $8.5B • TPV: $83.7B (+42% YoY) • GMV: $19.9B (+37% YoY) • Credit portfolio $12.5B
TEM Q4 Beats Revenue, Diagnostics Surge 122% YoY
TEM Q4 2025: • Revenue $367M vs Est. $363M • EPS ($0.04) vs Est. ($0.05) • Diagnostics Revenue: $267M (+122% YoY) FY26 Guidance • Revenue $1.59B vs Est. $1.58B
WBD Board Says Para Offer May Prompt Superior Bid
Para offer —> $31/shr with $0.25 ticking fee…. WBD board says “Could Reasonably Be Expected to Lead to a “Company Superior Proposal””
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
High‑Momentum Tech Overvalued, Risky If Market Weakens
Tech momentum is stretched. If macro weakens or earnings disappoint, crowded high-momentum tech could unwind quickly. This chart shows the performance and valuation of a high-minus-low (H–L) momentum factor within Russell 1000 Tech. Top Panel: H–L Momentum = Long Q1 (top momentum...
Semiconductors Reach New All‑Time High Vs. S&P500
Semiconductors hit new all-time highs again today. Not just on an absolute basis, but also relative to the S&P500. Here it is overlaid with Semiconductors on an equally-weighted basis for perspective. https://t.co/eujRGfCygY
Axon Beats Q4 Forecast, Projects 27‑30% FY26 Growth
$AXON Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.60; revenues rose 38.5% year/year to $796.72 mln vs the $755.56 mln FactSet Consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY26, sees FY26...
Axon Beats Earnings, Raises FY26 Revenue Guidance
Axon beats by $0.55, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs above consensus; provides FY28 outlook $AXON
QQQ Likely Bottomed Feb, Bounce to 614 Ahead
$QQQ - The low for February is probably in though the low of the downtrend that started on January 28 probably isn't. I expect it to bounce to at least the 100 day MA at 614 before we get another...
Billions in FX Options Expire Tomorrow Across Major Currencies
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 2.9 bln euros at $1.18 $2.85 bln at JPY156 A$2.8 bln at $0.7000 and A$2.5 bln at $0.7100 $470 mln at CAD1.37 GBP450 mln at $1.3550 $1 bln MXN17.29-MXN17.30 Listed on DTCC https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Inside Bar Tomorrow Means a True Hotdog
PTLO: Now if tomorrow is an inside bar, we would have a TRUE hotdog...🤣 https://t.co/aEC55bhrxN
Tariffs Boost Steel Jobs, Undermine U.S. Manufacturing
"Trump’s Tariffs Are Adding Steel Mill Jobs, and Crushing American Factories" https://t.co/EdQKmnKPzv You guys will never believe this, but heavily taxing a vital manufacturing input isn't good for manufacturing. https://t.co/6IRvgAXzPH
Earn More, But Spending Habits Still Limit Wealth
You can grind your way to more income. You can't grind your way past spending habits.
Base Metals Bullish Signal Emerges Across Major Stocks
NEW POST: I Saw the Sign for Base Metals https://t.co/Ts6jMvV3dF $AA $COPX $BHP $XME $FCX
S&P 500 Holds Tight
SPX tight 3-month range of 4.3%.. and it's smack in the middle of it https://t.co/9KwEPpi3uu
EU Anticipates US Softening of Metals Tariffs Soon
EU sees the US easing impact of metals tariffs in the coming weeks https://t.co/qG2gkI6D64 via @AlbertoNardelli @europressos https://t.co/QmBgb5eFOv
Consumer Confidence Rises, Inflation Expectations Slip to 5.5%
GS: Consumer Confidence and Labor Differential Increase The survey’s measure of 12-month ahead inflation expectations edged down by 0.1pp to 5.5%. https://t.co/lrWMlf1pcR
Watch Trump's 9 PM Speech Before Asia Trading
If you plan on trading Asia session tonight keep in mind the orange man speaks at 9pm
Yoda Targets Transamerica Pyramid Amid German Investor Pressure
#Yoda to buy #TransamericaPyramid, #SanFran icon. as seller #Shvo faces mounting tension w/#German investors. #BVK #DeutscheFinance #realestate #CRE #BayArea #mortgage #foreclosure #MandarinOriental #Egypt https://t.co/7oosJbQTvE
IGV's Record Volumes Signal Market Capitulation
$IGV - On February 4 it had the biggest volume in history. The next day it had the 2nd biggest volume in history. Yesterday it had the 3rd biggest volume in history, and today it's having the 4th biggest volume...
Smaller Starter Homes Make Housing Affordable for Young Families
We need to build *smaller* housing Smaller is the primary attribute of "Starter Homes." It's smaller SO THAT that a younger family can afford it, earlier It's why @americanhousing is building rowhomes. They're the perfect prototype. And have been for centuries. In...
AI‑Driven Revenue Drop Threatens Sovereign Bonds, Raises Capital Costs
This is an incredibly thought-provoking global macro piece from @infraa_. If the gov't revenue decline from AI disruption of white collar workers isn't counter-balanced by taxation from AI productivity, we could be tip-toeing into a potential Sovereign Bond Implosion....
AI Disruption Could Trigger $420 Bn Credit Default Wave
UBS’s Matt Mish lays out a scenario for credit involving “rapid, aggressive AI disruption.” US high yield, leveraged loan & private credit default rates could rise to 3–6%, 8–10%, & 14–15%, respectively: Mish. “Defaults could approach ~$420bn, w/losses of roughly...
Amazon Invests $12B in Shreveport Data Centers, Boosting LA Jobs
#Amazon in $12B love affair w/#LA as it plans series of #datacenters near #Shreveport. 'Puts LA at center of operations relied on acx country+connects our community to jobs' #ecommerce #infrastructure #realestate #CRE #AI #electricity #GovLandry https://t.co/27YgUCMaNa
Big‑Ticket Sales Rise 1.3% Amid Discretionary Weakness
$HD Big Ticket ($1,000+) Transaction Comps "Big ticket comp transactions were +1.3%... We were pleased with the performance we saw in categories such as power, plumbing and electrical. However, larger discretionary projects remain under pressure." https://t.co/m5NwpVXZPR
Spouse’s 1099 Income? Open Solo 401(k) Retroactively
If your wife/spouse had 1099 self-employment income in 2025: 1.) You can still retroactively open a solo 401k for the 2025 tax year
Trump's AI Restrictions Could Trigger Massive Political Reshuffle
Just a thought...but tomorrow could feature some absolute wild reshuffling rotations if Trump even hints at limiting AI
Private Credit Boom Delays Maturity Wall, Now Cracks Appear
What my post from December 2023 overlooked was the massive expansion in private credit. Private credit stepped in aggressively to fill financing gaps, refinance maturities, and provide bridge capital, delaying the "wall of maturities" many buyers were eager to capitalize on. Now...
Five Probable Paths to End Ukraine War
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
UTG Dividend Yield Slips to 7.6% After Sharp Drop
After the big drop today, ShareScope now showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.7% FALLING to 7.6% for #UTG
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
Rates Slip To
The daily average mortgage rate dropped to 5.99% on February 23, the lowest level since September 2022, except for a few hours on January 9 when rates fell to the same level. A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford...
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Chinese Module Makers Amid Margin Pressure
Morgan Stanley downgraded some chinese Module makers , seems to be hitting $SNDK and $MU AI boosts NAND demand, but Asian module maker margins may soon compress. We see challenges for module makers with constrained supply, margin normalization, and weakening...
Cybersecurity Stocks Plummet, Many Far Below 200‑day Highs
i'd argue that anyone only cluing in now that cybersecurity stocks are weak must have been on vacation... needless to say, you can see here the damage of the $CIBR constituents sorted by those holdings furthest from their 200-day highs......
Static 70/30 RSI Is Dead; Use Adaptive Zones
70/30 is dead. ☠️ RSI doesn’t mean the same thing across timeframes — so why are you using static levels? Adaptive RSI zones > outdated rules. 📈 Comment “RSI” and I’ll send the cheat sheet. #RSI #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis
Venezuela Leads Global Inflation Surge, Followed by NK, Iran
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL