Winning Stock Picking Means Knowing When to Sell
Successful stock picking isn’t just picking winners. It also means picking out the losers in your portfolio. The greatest advantage in public markets is “You can sell”. But you must know when to sell. https://t.co/iL6AHqtOyR
Core PCE Goods Over 2% Inflation Trending Upward
The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr
Norway Central Bank Likely Pushes Rate Cut to Q3
Norway central bank seen delaying the next rate cut to the 3rd quarter https://t.co/DQxoj354TR via @ottummelas https://t.co/jKYdw66YUF
Simulate Exits to Reveal Hidden Trading Edge
Your current journal tells you how much you lost. @tradesviz shows you how you could have won. 🤯 You can re-run past trades with different exit rules to see what would have happened. Look at a side-by-side comparison of a losing system...
Process Stays Bearish on MSFT, AMZN, META, JPM, TSLA
Shorts The Process remains Bearish on these Bombs $MSFT $AMZN $META $JPM $TSLA That's where your risk should have been managed https://t.co/MykLEB8Umh
TPX Raises Guidance, Still Cheap Yet Unheld
#TPX raised Guidance and says has momentum. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 9.3 falling to 7.9; could be cheap still. I don't hold.
BTG Meets Expectations, Dividend up, but I Stay Out
#BTG (used to be #BEG ) "in line with expectations". "Challenging" backdrop helping them. ShareScope has fwd p/e 10.8 falling to 10.2 with fwd Divvy 3.8% rising to 4%; lot to like. I don't hold.
India Lowers Dividend Taxes, Revises France Treaty Amid US Tariffs
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: While the US builds tariff walls, India opens doors. India has just revised its tax treaty with France and lowered dividend taxes for investors. https://t.co/CWxHPKVvRY
SPX Volatility Rises, Skew Hits Year‑to‑Date Highs
"We are already starting to see stress build in the derivatives market. $SPX fixed strike volatility has risen by roughly 1.5 vol points across the curve, while $SPX put call skew remains near its year-to-date highs" @t1alpha https://t.co/wXfaVxC4VW
Prioritize Mental Health During Drawdown Crises
Question for traders and investors: During the darkest periods of drawdowns in your capital, what was the best thing you did to manage your mental health? ⬇️
Half Wins, Double Rewards: Simple Path to Trading Profit
A 50% win rate with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio and solid risk management is all you need to make money trading over time. 50 wins × $600 = +$30,000 50 losses × $300 = -$15,000 100 trades with a 50% win rate and...
Emotional Mistakes Erase Weeks of Trading Gains
New traders tend to set themselves back with one of these: A big irrational revenge trade. Doubling their position size due to greed. Ignoring their stop loss due to ego. They give back weeks of progress in hours. Emotional weaknesses are expensive...
Prioritize Consistent Edge Over Perfect Trades
Your trading system must be designed for consistent execution with an edge, not perfection with every trade.
High Yield Holds Steady While Financials Remain Short
While we're short the Financials $XLF , liquid High Yield $HYG hasn't signaled get out yet https://t.co/NhKXuZMmrb
Software Stocks Down a Third Since October
Software stocks have lost a third of their value since the end of October. https://t.co/gSO2zdCAMQ
Staying Short Financials XLF and XLY in Quad3
SECTORS: we remain short of the Financials $XLF and $XLY during a MONTHLY #Quad3 https://t.co/VUVE8GW3B6
Huawei Hits $127B Revenue, Defying US Sanctions
Huawei’s revenues surge to US$127 billion as it continues to defy US sanctions Wait, thought controls were "working"?... https://t.co/fueavLdQgI
HK Court Issues Global Injunction Over Insider Trading
The Court of First Instance of Hong Kong has granted the Securities and Futures Commission a worldwide interim injunction order in legal proceedings against Mr Chan Ching Wa, a former staff of the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Limited (HKEX),...
Short EUR/USD Below 50‑Day SMA Target 1.1670
EUR/USD neutral; testing 50‑day SMA/61.8% fib at 1.1769. Momentum weak after brief post‑SCOTUS dollar selloff; tariff uncertainty persists. Insight: short below 50‑day SMA to 1.1670–1.1650. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Bans Japanese Firms, Escalating Trade War over Taiwan Comment
China Hits Japanese Firms With Export Bans—Move marks another escalation in economic campaign against Japan over prime minister’s Taiwan comment @wsj_douglasj https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5 https://t.co/KP8DkI7RD5
Turkey’s BIST Soars 24% Amid Inflows, Loose Policy
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's main stock index, the BIST 100, is up nearly 24% YTD, and foreign investors are piling into Turkish bonds and equities. Turkey's disinflation story is gaining credibility and capital is flowing in. BEWARE. TURKEY'S MONETARY POLICY REMAINS TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/ubNTzVl6KH
China’s USD Pullback Demands over $100B Monthly Liquidity
Setser: "$100b a month is a large sum, it had to go into a fairly liquid corner of the market". And of course if on top of this China really were reducing its exposure to USD assets, we would need more...
European Auto Sales Dip, EV Demand Softens Decline
European auto sales fall even as EV demand cushions the drop https://t.co/MRYjYElcs2 via @MonicaRaymunt https://t.co/fVEMCkDkcZ
China’s Lunar New Year Spending Modestly up Amid Stimulus
SCMP: "Consumer spending during China’s Lunar New Year rose modestly this year, according to early official data, as authorities extended the holiday and stepped up stimulus measures to support domestic demand." https://t.co/d5LzFaVd4V via @scmpnews
Universal Tariff Beats Currency Devaluation for Trade Balance
The irony is that to reduce trade imbalances, tariffs should mostly substitute for currency devaluation, in which case a single, universal tariff is likely to be far more effective than a hodgepodge of bilateral and sectoral tariffs. https://t.co/QVpoGNLwuH
China May Pause Reserve Dedollarization if US Eases Taiwan Stance
So no more dedollarization of China's formal reserves if the US softens its Taiwan policy? Tis an option that China is at least considering per Lingling Wei and the WSJ 1/ https://t.co/365Y8wHJV4
Countries Subsidize Exports, Cutting Domestic Consumption to Offset US Tariffs
1/4 As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption. https://t.co/phOREv8G8z
S&P 500 Records Worst 17‑year Start, US Rank 69th
🔴This is one of the WORST starts for the S&P 500 to the year in HISTORY: S&P 500 is lagging the rest of the world equities by 8 percentage points, the worst start to a year in at least 17 years. The...
ORB Strategy Varies: Nasdaq Smooth, Gold Erratic
The opening range breakout strategy does not perform the same on every market. Backtesting the 3 minute ORB on Nasdaq futures versus Gold futures showed a clear difference. Nasdaq produced a higher win rate and a smoother equity curve with consistent expansion...
US Needs Domestic EV Demand to Counter China’s Rare‑earth Dominance
.@dunne_insights: “China controls roughly 70 percent of rare earth mining and over 90 percent of processing capacity. Without a thriving domestic EV industry creating sustained demand, America lacks the economic incentive to build the…supply chains.” https://t.co/hU5loovdzh
Algorithms, Not Humans, Now Drive Stock Selling
Exactly. I’m not sure real people are selling stocks anymore, just algo driven slop driven by news headlines tagged to “Anthropic”.
China’s Top Solar Firms Slash One‑third Staff Amid Losses
1/7 Reuters: "China's biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings show, as one of the industries hand-picked by Beijing to drive economic growth grapples with falling prices and steep losses." https://t.co/BDS9UWJaXO
Accelerating Trade Imbalances Will Deepen Global Tensions
Good PIIE paper by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon on the consequences of accelerating trade imbalances. They warn that trade tensions are likely to get worse, something I have been saying for years and continue to say. I don't...
World Pivots to India as US Tariffs Alienate Allies
#IndiaWatch 🇮🇳: At the margin, the world is making a Pivot away towards India. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = MAKING LOTS OF US ENEMIES. https://t.co/3H8maAoa62
Citrini Predicts 38.2% Retrace by Mid‑2028
So the Citrini piece is looking for about a 38.2% retracement by mid 2028 after an October '26 peak. Fibonacci is everywhere. 👀 @JC_ParetsX https://t.co/Ppnb1uG5Xl
Trade Opposite After Fakeout: Short Sweep High, Long Sweep Low
Turtle Soup · Sweep High = Short · Sweep Low = Long Wait for the fakeout, then enter opposite.
AI Fears Create Buying Opportunity for Strong Companies
Tech is getting hammered on AI worries, but is this really just another opportunity to buy solid companies when they are cheap? We think so. https://t.co/YjUXwZUJx9
China Buys FX as Yuan Rises to Curb Appreciation
A little more complicated -- China consistently buys more fx when the CNY is appreciating (whether for structural or cyclical reasons). Exports start converting, and controlling the pace of appreciation takes intervention. Subtle point, but clear in the data
AI Boom Keeps Payroll Flat, Cuts Original Workers
The software industry's payroll has been flat since ChatGPT launched. The AI productivity boom may be eliminating the workers who created it first. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/xRx5vLZILo
TICO Faces 99.5% Owned Toyota Tender
I've been a bit quiet on here for a while. I'm still busy over at @smartkarma. Over the weekend I published two pieces on TICO (Toyota Industries Co (6201 JP)) which is currently undergoing a Tender Offer by Toyota Asset...
Pending Home Sales Reach All-Time Low
The most worrying stat of the month: Pending Home Sales falls to lowest level lowest level ever recorded.
Weighted Avg 2.3% Signals Bullish Breakout Over CBO
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
IBuyer Hype Faded: Reality Beats the Takeover Myth
Throwback to when the iBuyer model was going to take over the real estate market.
Japanese Builders Double Down on U.S. Housing Market
Japan’s big bet on the U.S. housing market got even bigger today Japanese builders are rapidly acquiring U.S. homebuilders—now Daiwa House is buying United Homes That's just 10 days after Japan-based Sumitomo Forestry said it's buying Tri Point Homes https://t.co/UnPOshRdS1
Taxes Are a Year‑Round Game, Not a One‑Time Event
Treating taxes as a one time event is a middle class move. It’s why you overpay in taxes every year. It’s a year round game for the wealthy.
Follow Prices, Stay Opinion‑Free: A Liberating Approach
You can follow price and not have an opinion. It’s pretty neat and freeing. Highly Recommend.
Staples Surge Ahead While Discretionary Set to Lag
Proctor & Gamble higher by another 2% today- Staples stocks like $PG continue to make upward progress, while Retail & Casinos underperforming within Discretionary @IBDinvestors @marketsurge https://t.co/XW54gpjWXm In tonights note, i discuss why Discretionary still could lag Staples for...
Trump's Tariff Rate Uncertain: 10% Formal, 15% Unconfirmed
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
Vanguard's Clunky App Discourages Active Trading, Use Auto‑Buy
Vanguard literally has the worst Ul and app. Charts aren’t real time. Absolutely terrible. But that's by design. They want you to prevent you from trading too much, making FOMO decisions or even logging in. Set up automatic buys and just don't...
Section 122 Tariffs Reduced to 10% From 15%
Section 122 tariffs now being collected at 10%, not Trump's weekend 15%. Clearly, a well-oiled tariff machine here. 🤷🤷 https://t.co/5MjbcrZuXD https://t.co/jb72H2AZQ8