Crowds Default to Obvious Blame for Market Downturns
Never underestimate the crowd's willingness to attribute a down market to the most obvious cause (whether accurate or not).
Future Proof: Spot Unseen Leaders, Not the Crowd
Everyone’s chasing what’s crowded at Future Proof. We’re doing the opposite. The next leaders won’t be the names everyone already owns. Off-the-record dinner in Miami on positioning and regime shifts. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap Details: https://t.co/GgkP75CNl6
Trade Ideas' Presets
Option 👀 My first stop is our Today's Markets page. My default watchlist is loaded so all metrics snapped to that. Volume list shows notable volumes (XLU 48 calls opening traded size today) Trade Ideas classifies based on vol surface signatures we...
Oil Service Stocks Decouple From Oil
$DSPX $OIH the miracle of dispersion/factor and narrative herding- OIH, oil service companies (and XLE) have stopped caring about the price of oil https://t.co/KSEm3I1wDU
Condo Price Study Ignores HOA Fees, Misleads Results
The working paper cited as the core thesis in this essay has a pretty serious data issue ... it follows a 40-story CONDO building and how the pricing effects filter down to the buildings that the new owners leave to...
Large‑cap New Highs Outpace Lows: 78 vs 31
there are 78 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new highs list today... there are 31 large-cap stocks hitting the 52-week new lows list... #FinanciallyINsync #HighLowShow #marketUpdate #investing
Buy Stablecoins, Not Mastercard, for This Narrative
If you want to sell Mastercard on that story, you should probably buy Stablecoin exposure (but markets don't get that)
Insider Take‑Private Looms as Settlement Clears Weedmaps Squeeze‑Out Path
No Cheap Squeeze-Outs: My Process Letter to the Weedmaps Board The settlement AIP cleared the path for insiders to strike. With a renewed take-private looking imminent before the proxy, I just served formal notice to the $MAPS Special Committee. See full presentation,...
CNBC Has Dismissed HOOD, APP, JPM, PLTR Positions
It's a good thing no one on CNBC is still long $HOOD $APP $JPM $PLTR etc.
Predicting PM Reaction to AI News Gives Edge
i should have realized a widely shared article on social media that mentioned credit card AI disruption would cause $AXP & $V to sell off today. PMs are shooting first and asking questions later. figuring out how PMs will react...
Massive Late‑Day Nvidia $
Nvidia (NVDA) late day buyer over 20,000 March $205 calls $4.60 to $4.70 Sheesh, what are they going to say
VC‑driven Panic Resurfaces, Hitting AI, V, IBM Stocks
remember a few years ago when a few VCs caused a regional bank panic and stocks like $SCHW got hammered for no reason? it's really starting to feel like that now but in a larger group of names. $AI $V $IBM
SPX and QQQ Stuck in Range, Trade Until Breakout
both $SPX and $QQQ sit in a chop chop range. The nimble can trade the range until clarity arrives.
Affinius Deal Values Veris REIT at $3.4 B
Fuggetabout all that tsouris over investors claiming #Veris, fka #MackCali, w/undervaluing itself. #Affinius group in deal that values #REIT at $3.4B. #WallSt #multifamily #residential #VistaHill #realestate #CRE #Kushner https://t.co/W7mr3PhzY4
XLK Tests $140 Support, Vulnerable After Churning
$XLK Daily. Contrast recent churning along $140 support for tech ETF vs. previous V-shaped (arrows) bounced off dips. Leaning down against it, vulnerable https://t.co/YjcqDeoMNZ
Market Stays Strong Against Real News, Crumbles Over Fiction
“I have seen this market exhibit incredible resilience in the face of actual negative news. Now a literal work of fiction sends it into a tailspin.” https://t.co/pem9OMzVZ2
S&P Global Hits Lows; Cheap
S&P Global (SPGI) back to lows seeing 1000 April $370 puts buy $6.99 Likely a guy releasing a vibe-coded credit ratings system
Even in the Penalty Box, I Study Market Sentiment
I am in the penalty box and doing deep dive homework on markets and sentiment.
HalftimeReport Missed IBM Surge, Lost $30
Go to @HalftimeReport archives on $IBM recommendations (-$30 and -12%) Last sale $228 1. January 21, 2026 $295 and January 29, 2026 $308 Malcolm 2. Slink continuous over last six months (multiple prices, all much higher than last sale) Not ad hominem. That...
Cash High, Trades Low; Let‑It‑Ride Holds with Stops
Trade account has lots of cash and few trades left. The let it ride still owns many holdings. All have stops in the machine
100ma Daily Supports SPX at 6823.85 After Pullbacks
The last few pullbacks the 100ma daily at the end of the day has held the $SPX currently at 6823.85
CPCE 10‑Month Avg Near 0.70, Warning Signs Ahead
$CPCE reading 10ma is at 0.67. 0.70 gets my attention and if it gets near or at 0.75 it will show lots of bearish sentiment. The current reading is near what was last seen in April 2025 0.696....
Gold Overvalued? Questioning Its Safe‑Haven Status
Is the store-of-value, gold, too stretched to be considered a safe haven? https://t.co/nC6Jxgznlb #gold #bonds @markets https://t.co/VvCZYA742S
2026 Marks Second-Strongest Equal-Weight Outperformance Since 1990
2026 has so far seen the second strongest relative performance for equal weight versus cap weight since 1990 That timing didn’t suck. https://t.co/zuhbqozekK
Mortgage Spreads Push Rates Under 6% Despite 10‑yr Yield
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Green Tech Production Quadruples, Outpaces All Consumer Goods
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
Unfunded Inclusionary Zoning Perpetuates Exclusion; Fund Affordable Housing
Unfunded "inclusionary" zoning is a recipe for permanent exclusion. It presupposes that rents/prices will always be high enough to cross-subsidize a tiny number of lottery-assigned affordable units. If you actually want affordable housing at scale, you have to fund it.
Sell‑side Analysts: Useless in Bull, Deadly in Bear
This is not specific to OWL, but today’s sell-side discourse reminds me of some excellent advice I got when I was just starting in this biz: “you don’t need sell-side analysts in a bull market, and in a bear market...
One Minute Watch: Key SPY Level Insight
$SPY levels worth one minute of your time to watch Thank you for this post
Stop Paying to Escape Your Weekday Problems
Stop spending hundreds of dollars every weekend just to forget the problems you have M-F
Chinese Investors Surge Gold ETF Holdings by 52%
The Chinese are buying gold ETFs like HOT CAKES. According to the World Gold Council, China’s gold ETF holdings rose from 188.8 tonnes at the end of August 2025 to 286.3 tonnes by the end of January, a 52% increase. BUY GOLD,...
NVDA's Six‑Month Stagnation May End With $12.60 Earnings Swing
$NVDA absolutely flat over the last six months. Can earnings this week finally move them out of this range? The option's market is projecting a (+/-) $12.60 move following the report (Based on 02/27 exp).
Energy Firms Ramp up Lobbying for Venezuela Opportunities
👀 #Energy-related companies' interest in opportunities in #Venezuela is starting to show up in lobbying reports. Expect to see more of this K Street action, as we reported in this morning's @axios Future of Energy newsletter. #OOTT (1/3)
Vanbarton Leads Office‑to‑Residential Conversion Surge
The office>resi #conversion frenzy+#Vanbarton's central place in it. Boss #RichardACColes discusses that+other issues. #NYC #realestate #CRE #multifamily #MayorMamdani #467M #NoMad #mortgage https://t.co/ceQM1ZXDsf
ASML Climbs 38% YTD Amid Market Uncertainty
ASML Holdings quietly floating higher in a sea of uncertainty seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Consistent earnings execution and already up 38% YTD. $ASML #IBDPartner https://t.co/6bDmMq5jpN
Rupee's Fall Fuels 349% Surge in Gold Imports
The WEAKENING Indian rupee is triggering a GOLD RUSH. The rupee is DOWN 5.6% against the USD since the start of last year. In response, India’s gold imports has surged 349% during the past year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/iGjJpyGh1p
Permits Drive 50% Premium, Blocking LA Housing Supply
Developers are willing to pay 50% more for land that already has permits to build in the city of Los Angeles: "Overall, our results suggest permitting is a major barrier to housing supply in Los Angeles"
Apple Rallies $260.50
Still in as $aapl as it’s giving a great two day move. I just have less now. From $260.50 RDR buy Friday. to $269+ today
Britain’s Chagos Choice Signals Resolve to China
Britain’s decision on the Chagos Islands is more than politics. It shapes how strategic rivals — especially China — interpret UK resolve, alliances and influence. This analysis explains why this matters in the context of great-power competition and what it reveals about...
Honored with Volcker Lifetime Award for Economic Policy
I’m honoured to receive the Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award for Economic Policy. Paul Volcker’s personal conviction reshaped the trajectory of central banking in the US and around the world. Read my speech https://t.co/YcIx8y210A https://t.co/w1EZ0DOmzW
Mortgage Rates Dip Below 6%, Lowest Since 2022
#Mortgage rates just dropped below 6%, matching lowest level since 2022 https://t.co/MSs7B1Npgs @mortgagenewsmnd @MG_MBS #realestate #realestateinvesting
XLV's Quiet Consolidation Sets Up Defensive Rotation Play
Healthcare ETF $XLV has been quietly consolidating to kick off 2026. If we see more defensive rotation, this is the kind of structure that could benefit. (disclosure: long) https://t.co/keFGRkr7dy
Plan Your 2025 Deductions with This Guide
There’s still time to review key deductions and strategies for 2025. This guide can help you get started. https://t.co/iFENgYm9YE
Toronto Starter Homes Cost $750k, Rent $2.4k
$750,000 purchase price with a $600k mortgage is a “starter home” in Toronto btw. Rents for $2,400/month.
IGV Approaches Fourth Repeated Low in 21 Months
$IGV is crashing another 5% today. It has undercut the April 2025 low, but in the last 21 months IGV made 3 separate intermediate term lows in this price range: May 31 2024 - 76.10 August 5 2024 - 75.96 April 7 2025...
Use Volume Profile to Spot Balance and Trade VWAP
Volume Profile shows you where business was done. 📊 HVNs rotate. LVNs accelerate. If you don’t know whether we’re in balance or price discovery… you’re gambling. We fade value extremes and target VWAP like clockwork. Comment “PROFILE” and I’ll send the guide 🌊 #tradingstrategy #volumeprofile #daytrading
Falling Gas Prices Save Combustion Drivers $700, EV Costs $290
Lower gasoline costs will save money for those who drive cars w/ outdated combustion-powered drivetrains (more than $700/household according to this post). As a separate data point I will spend ~$290 this year to charge my electric vehicle (8000 miles, 0.3...
Signal Strength Stocks Deliver Triple‑Digit Gains, Overlooked
Why wouldn't someone be long our Signal Strength Stocks? 4 of the Top7 are riding triple digit % gains And they aren't the names CNBC-types are talking about all day long https://t.co/GEqj2zNrx1
Mortgage Rates
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
Veris Residential Joins Wave of Apartment REIT Liquidations
Another one bites the dust ... Veris Residential becomes the latest apartment REIT sold or liquidated (18+ in the last 15 years vs. ~12 still remaining). Veris (6.6k units) is best known for its wildly high renter incomes ($480k or 10-12%...