New Low-Cost, Tax-Efficient Benchmark ETF Arrives June 30
There has been near zero coverage in the endowment and foundation world about there now being a low-cost, tax-efficient investable benchmark ETF. June 30th can't come soon enough...
Fed Minutes Reveal Mixed Inflation, AI Boosts Productivity
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
Equity Risk Discount Signals Overvalued Market Amid Turmoil
An equity risk premium which has recently turned into an equity risk discount. (Historically, an awful launnching pad for future returns) Policy turmoil, slowing domestic economic growth, sticky inflation, circular financing deals in AI (holding up the econ data) and traditional...
S&P Reverses Gains, Slides Downward After Recent Surge
S and P now down on the day (reversing 45 handles in last few minutes) From an hour ago... on @thestreetpro Dougie Kass Ludacris Day? @dougkass
Real Energy Costs Have Declined Since 1960s
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
High Valuations Test Market Resilience in 2026
Markets flat near the highs + valuations near the upper end of history. Tom Martin of Globalt breaks down what that actually means—and what could sustain (or break) it in 2026! Our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/nA9bmU87rf...
Ex‑US Value Soars, Advisors Still Underweight Benchmark
Value ex-US ripping again this year, spreading to US value too. Not a lot of discussion about it in my world yet. Every advisor we speak to still way underallocated relative to benchmark...
SCOTUS Overturns Trump Tariffs, Global Markets Surge
Trump Tariffs (most of them, not all) struck down by SCOTUS. Immediate reaction on stocks: •US higher (Mag7 up led by GOOGL +4%). •Europe higher: London, Paris, Amsterdam at ATH. •Asia likely positive, but on the contrary the front loadings...
Build‑to‑Rent: Proven Path to Wealth and Freedom
It’s not “get rich quick” but it is 100% an amazing vehicle to build wealth and freedom. Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #ceomindset
IEEPA Threat Raises Tariff Ceiling, Shifts Negotiation Dynamics
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
Accounting Rules Reveal Shutdown’s Massive Real GDP Loss
A fun(?) 🧵 on how nerdy government accounting rules had a big impact on Q4 GDP. And how they reflect how wasteful the 43-day government shutdown was. TL;DR: Small reduction in nominal federal spending in Q4. But a big decline in...
Cooling Volatility Triggers Machine Re‑Leverage, Expect Upward Grind
Volatility is cooling. 30D realized volatility (yellow line) just rolled over and is now below 90D (blue line). When short-term vol drops, the machines re-lever. Vol control funds start buying. Right now, the signal says grind higher until proven otherwise.
Master Budgeting, Saving, Debt & Earnings with Workbook
*🚨🤑PAYDAY = Made Whole Money Move madewholeworkbook It’s CRICKETS every single time 😂 . . My money workbook (companion to my NYT-Bestseller Get Good With Money) teaches you all about budgeting saving, debt and learning to earn (more)... and has tons of free...
AI Connectivity Group Ends Week on Fire
TTMI, GLW, COHR, LITE, CIEN, FN AI connectivity group stays super hot to close the week
Xi's Consolidation Will Prompt China to Seek Cheaper Imports
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
US Has 12‑18‑month Window to Sell Commodities to China
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
China Pays Premium for US Grain to Leverage Trump
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
Gold Rises With Stocks, Breaking Inverse Trend
🚨 GOLD DEEP DIVE | FEB 20, 2026 🚨 Gold: $5,048/oz (+1.25% today | +71.82% YoY) Silver: $81.94 (+151% YoY) GDX Miners ETF: $104.23 (+21% YTD) The most telling signal: gold is surging today while stocks ALSO rally on the Supreme Court tariff ruling....
FERC Drops Western Soft Price Cap, Claims More Power
The price cap was put in place after market manipulations in 2001 (mostly in CA). FERC says it now has more power to prevent gouging, therefore the cap is no longer needed. FERC Eliminates Western ‘Soft’ Price Cap //www.rtoinsider.com/126212-ferc-eliminates-western-soft-price-cap/
IEEPA Tariff Ruling Limits Trump’s Broad Tariff Options
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Sparks Volatile XRT Intraday Swings
Markets can be tricky... SCOTUS tariffs ruling giveth...then taketh away... SPDR S&P Retail ETF intraday...upside volatility...that has been slowly eroded in the last 45 min...now trading where it was before announcement. Let's see how things shake out by closing bell 🤔 $XRT https://t.co/d2XrrhSSlC
Geopolitical Shocks Spark Volatility,
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Inflation‑Adjusted Dollar Down 10% Yet Remains Strong
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
Amazon Clears $207, Targets $210+ After $197 Pivot
$amzn nice week. RDR Tuesday around $197 pivot. Cleared $207 and now it’s $210+ to manage.
US Gas Dips Below $3 as Supplies Stay Ample
U.S. gas prices retreat on comfortable stocks Front-month U.S. gas futures prices have slipped below $3 per million British thermal units for the first time in four months as traders become convinced gas will remain plentiful despite record exports. So far, this...
GE Call Spreads Double, Extra Time Boosts Returns
$GE Feb 330/350 call spreads from earnings snapshots now near $13 from $7, often pays to give extra time when playing a high quality name
Transparency Over Trust: I’ll Prove My Value
I don't share enough proof. Distrust, especially in the AI/social media world, is at an all-time high. And rightfully so. Plus it gets tricky with client confidentiality. If you've ever thought about reaching out I hope to make it the...
Trump 2.0 Boosts Banks, Revives Citi’s Fortunes
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Supreme Court Blocks Key Tariff Components, Administration Must Seek Alternatives
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Yield Curve Ste
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
New Friday Morning Portfolio Adjustments Unveiled
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: February 20, 2026 - Portfolio Enrichment..." A few Friday A.M. portfolio adjustments... via The Lyons Share https://t.co/VbzlIct5Nc https://t.co/DZs0p0H2mR
US Q4 Growth Stalls at 1.4% Amid Shutdown
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
U.S. Debt Surge Demands Immediate Fiscal Brake
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
First‑Round Knockout: YTD Dominance Over Competitors
CHART OF THE DAY: This Is A First Round Knockout, YTD We Are Crushing The Competition https://t.co/ohQwlRHqY4 via @hedgeye
Dividends Are Taxed—High Earners Should Chase Growth, Not Yield
Just fyi: Even if you reinvest dividends, you still have to pay taxes on them. If dividends are qualified, you'll pay 0-23.8% in tax. If non qualified, you'll pay 0-40.8% tax, and state/local taxes. High earners shouldn’t chase high dividend funds. Focus on...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
US Stock Market Cap Only 12% of $7.7T
"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V
Weak US Data, Traders Brace for Geopolitical Risk
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Historic Uncertainty Spurs Opportunities in AI and Energy Stocks
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Current Feb Mirrors Century‑Long SPY Performance Trends
$SPX.X $SPY Feb performance by day 100 years overlaid on MTD action of SPY https://t.co/x1W4uABOCj
Balanced OPEX Shows No Clear Call or Put Dominance
This OPEX is a fairly standard size OPEX, with about $600 bn on delta expiring. That's ~1/2 of a quarterly OPEX. You can see that calls and puts are relatively equal in size (right side), which makes sense based off...
Inflation Surges, Growth Slumps: White House Economist Stumbles
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Most Weekly BDC Discounts Are Mispriced—Learn Why
Everyone has a BDC take this week. Most of them are wrong. If you don't understand how they trade, what drives the discount, or why NAV isn't what you think it is, start here. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/the-bdc-primer-part-1
Short the Rips, Buy the Dips: Grinder’s Strategy
Grinder on the short side of the Indices for several months. Short the rips, buy the dips... for now, Bill. @DougKass