Takaichi Warns of Japan’s Domestic Investment Shortfall
*TAKAICHI:THERE IS A DEARTH OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN JAPAN Takaichi dropping truth bombs. Starts of with the biggest
US‑trained Chinese Firms Dominate Memory Supercycle
Chinese memory firms GigaDevice Semiconductor and Montage Technology have emerged as new heavyweights in the domestic semiconductor industry, as these companies founded by US-returned Chinese engineers capitalise on the global memory supercycle. https://t.co/Vn4nQD1BYc
15% Margin Add‑On Hits 18 High‑Concentration F&O Stocks
Exchange levies 15% add-on exposure margin on 18 high concentration F&O names from Feb 25 (announced yesterday) Stocks that might see some pressure due to increased margins - ABCAP, ARBP, BANDHAN, CCRI, CROMPTON, GNP, IDEA, JSW, LICHF, NBCC, NMDC, PATANJALI, RBL...
Busan Deal: US Sacrific
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
Spend $33B on Flexibility, Not Idle Gas Plant
For $33B he could have solved the entire PJM capacity auction challenge with demand flexibility through 2029, but sure overpay for a gas plant that won’t run more than 20% of the year…
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
IMF Estimates Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Roughly 19%
Just how undervalued is the Chinese yuan -- the IMF (via the Economist) just revised its estimate up to 19% (plus or minus 4%) 1/many https://t.co/IJ4Z1SmGIq
Integr
You know how high earners feel like they’re tipping Uncle Sam while their own financial goals keep slipping? I integrate tax strategy and financial planning so they stop the bleeding and fund what actually matters.
College Still Boosts Lifetime Earnings, Despite 2026 Debate
Going to college is one of the best things you can do to increase your expected lifetime earnings This is oddly a controversial statement in 2026
Exclude Pharma and Gold to Reveal True US Trade Trend
I think the best way to look at the underlying trend in the US trade data is strip out pharmaceuticals and gold (both were heavily influenced by the threat of tariffs, even though none were imposed on either category) 1/ https://t.co/7l20zR7CTr
Rising PMI Could Spark Market Melt‑Down, Delay Fed Cuts
Will the stock market melt down if the US economy heats up, banishing traders' hopes for Fed rate cuts? All eyes turn to PMI data to find out. #stockmarkets #USD #fed #pmi #economy #interestrates #macro #trading https://t.co/fgEbuQrjnq
Strategic Partnership Shouldn't Just Be German Production in China
Hope the "strategic partnership" is more than allowing German companies to produce in China for the German (and European) market ...
Software’s Value Mispriced; Embedded Platforms Gain From AI
Software Is Not Dead. It’s Being Mispriced. AI disruption fears, multiple compression, and why embedded platforms may be the real beneficiaries of automation. Read here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/software-is-not-dead-its-being-mispriced
SPX Straddle Costs Surge to Fed-Day Levels
$SPX 33pts for a straddle til 9:30am is a lot, I mean, this was a Fed day price 24hrs ahead not long ago https://t.co/ZvarHxYNIH
BDC's Wind‑down Follows Its Disclosed Liquidity Plan
To be clear, the fund being referenced is *not* an interval fund, it is a BDC. This may seem like splitting hairs because they are both lumped together as evergreen/semi-liquid fund structures, but there are important distinctions - much in the...
US Stock Market Hits Record Concentration: Top 10 Own 40%
🚨US market concentration BUBBLE in one chart: The top 10 US stocks make up a record 40% of the S&P 500 market value. At the same time, the weight of the largest stock in the S&P 500 relative to the 75th percentile...
SPX Flat While DE Soars, Oil Breaks Out, COIN Spikes
$SPX is still stuck between 6800 and 7000. But under the surface, $DE exploded higher on earnings, $CVX and $COP broke out with crude oil, and $COIN is showing amplified volatility vs #Bitcoin. Here’s what I’m watching next: https://t.co/bQnwyKMJeh https://t.co/v7DLLL1mYC
South Korea, Turkey, Thailand Lead YTD Market Gains
Best performing stock markets in the world (local currency) year-to-date. 1. S Korea +34.7% 2. Turkey +24.1% 3. Thailand +18.6% In Asia only Indonesia, India negative. Malaysia is up only 4.3%.
Buy Newmont on Pullbacks as Gold Rises
Macro: gold up on rate‑cut hopes & geopolitics. Key: Newmont beat as realized $4,216/oz offset 24% output drop. Risk: output erosion, volatility. Trade: buy Newmont on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Earn Monthly Income Without Buying Stocks
The Poor Trader’s Way to Monthly Income (No Stock Purchase Required) #optionstrader #optionstrading #tradingstrategy #optionstrategy
Energy and Materials Surge as Tech Falters in 2026
This is a pretty cool chart to show your investment committee. A classic stock price-to-corporate profits image that reveals extended conditions reminiscent of the turn of the century. If this chart has any prescience, we should remember that the leaders...
91 Days, Two Rate Calls, Then Warsh Takes Over
Only 91 days and two more rate decisions (Mar 18 and Apr 29) before Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends (May 15th). Then it is the Warsh era...
Fed‑Treasury Coordination Must Be Transparent, Not Secret
Fed independence was a 20th century virtue. Fed inter-dependence is a 21st century necessity. The question was never whether the Fed and Treasury coordinate-it's whether that coordination happens in the dark or in the light The American people deserve monetary transparency...
Hosting on Airbnb Means Accepting Constant Small Hassles
If you want to become an Airbnb Host you have to accept 5% of the time you will be Critiqued by guests Your phone might ring in late evening Items will be broken Finding the right help will be difficult People will often...
HG Delivers Strong Results and Special Dividend
$HG been a nice newer issue in Financials, just announced results and special divvy https://t.co/1as8xwX6bo
Grey Swan Risks Amid Busy Global Macro Calendar
While I will keep an eye out for grey swans catalyzing (Iran and Supreme Court's decision on tariffs principally), the global macro docket picks up through Friday. Top event risk includes: Japan CPI; February PMIs; Mexico and Canada retail sales; US...
Budget Realistically, Not on Hopeful Cost Estimates
Don’t budget for what you hope it costs… budget realistically. Follow @chasecalhoun.realestate for more on build-to-rent and real estate investing. #realestate #investmentproperty #ceomindset
China Overtakes Germany as Leading Car Exporter, Threatening German Industry
Good piece "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests" Great chart China is a much bigger net exporter (of cars) now than Germany...
McGough’s CVNA Sell Call Beats CNBC’s Coverage
Great SELL call by McGough @HedgeyeRetail on $CVNA that CNBC failed, once again, to cover
Asset Ownership Race Since 2020: Own or Be Excluded
We are in an Asset Ownership Race, I believe since 2020. You own or you will get left out.
Armenia Faces Nuclear Dilemma, U.S. Aid Could Break Deadlock
Armenia's power is supplied by what is widely considered the least safe nuclear reactor on the planet, and it has no money to replace it. With Russia occupied in Ukraine, the country is desperately searching for a solution. On one end,...
All Research Done, Still Stuck on Execution
It’s like you already did ALL the research but you just can’t get yourself to execute.
Growth-to-Value Rotation Shifts Money to Cyclicals and Defensives
“Yes, THAT growth-to-value sector rotation I called in November to last through Feb before volatility Mar into May. THAT was my call and it’s still in play before a massive de-risking in MAG7 and SaaS unwind showed up along with...
AUD/USD Rally Pauses Near 2023 High, Streak Threatened
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Stalls Near 2023 High – Four-Week Streak at Risk https://t.co/srtBKcRq3k $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/oGQK6Jc1uV
Ethiopia’s 2024 Petrol Ban Saves $5B, Fuels
Ethiopia didn’t ban petrol cars in 2024 to hug trees: Importing oil was bleeding them dry - costing over $5b/ year in precious foreign exchange From close to zero before the 2024 ban, EV sales now make up over 60% of...
Buybacks Drop as Capex Takes Priority, ESO Dilution Fades
There are two reasons why buybacks are falling and likely to fall more 1. CApex as a use of FCF is deemed more important than share count reduction or SBC dilution offset 2. To the extent stocks fade the ESO awards provided...
Discussing 2026 Credit Outlook, Including Private Credit
I will be joining @CNBC's @michaelsantoli this afternoon at 430p ET for a discussion of the credit markets--including, yes, private credit. Snip from our Outlook 2026. https://t.co/u8NP4oAYoL https://t.co/umYLiLDzTY
Copper Prices Jump 44% Year‑Over‑Year
Copper prices have surged to an average of $13,012/mt in January 2026 from $8,991/mt a year ago. That's a WHOPPING 44% INCREASE. BUY COPPER, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/FIhvIikhjQ
Three-Step Tax Prep System for Multi-Stream Income
How I prep for tax season 💸🤓🇨🇦 (as an accountant with multiple income streams) Here’s my exact 3-step system:
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
IMF Must Incorporate Lagged RMB in China Surplus Forecasts
A very important point The IMF needs a new methodology for forecasting China's external surplus, one that explicitly includes the RMB (with lags)
China's December Short‑term US Deposits Signal Backdoor Intervention
The China story in the TIC data isn't the slide in China's long-term holdings in US custodians -- it is the rise in China's bills and short-term deposits in December. That hints that some of the December surge in...
Consumer Staples Lead 2026 with Record‑Breaking 13% Jump
The consumer staples sector is off to its best start to a calendar year BY FAR. $XLP is up 13.3% so far in 2026. Next best year is 2013 at 7.8%.
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
Top Two Sectors and Their Leading Ten Stocks
Top 2 sectors and top 10 stocks in those 2 sectors #stockmarket #Nifty50 #ai #bess #energy
Deem Global Soft‑Closes $3B, Capacity Turns Scarce
Another hedge fund shutting to new cash just as investors ready to allocate more. Asfandyar Nadeem’s Deem Global is soft-closing at $3billion after a strong 2025 and a sharp start to 2026. capacity is becoming a scarce resource. https://t.co/3TAvGB3pmk
China‑Iran Alliance Turns Regional Conflict Into Global Threat
When great powers align, regional conflicts become global risks. China’s support of Iran is shifting the escalation ladder—and changing the strategic balance of the world. Understand what this means before it happens. Full analysis on website #Geopolitics #China #Iran #GlobalPower #Strategy
Dollar Stuck in Congestion, Faces Resistance Near 98.5
The Dollar is in a broader technical congestion pattern without a clear and persistent fundamental drive. As such, I tend to pay more attention to technicals. Looking at the $DXY daily, there is some notable resistance (50 SMA and '50%...
December Goods Deficit Rebounds to Fall‑2024 Levels
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...