Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like the current spike in oil... https://t.co/MGLvMWy2ks https://t.co/tMpGZoUwt1
Pay Off Credit Card Debt Before Stock Investing
Don't invest your money in the stock market if you have credit card debt Unless to get the full employer match for your 401k (assuming good % matching and vesting rules) Get rid of that 25% interest asap Don’t work backwards
Silver's Surge Over Gold Signals Looming Macro Shift
Silver at $80.78 as of April 17 — up 6.5% on the week, outpacing gold. Silver is simultaneously a monetary metal and an industrial metal. When it beats gold by this margin, the market is pricing both safe-haven demand and real...
Silver Outpaces Gold, Hinting At
$SLV surged 6.5% in a week to $80.78 — outperforming $GLD. Silver has BOTH the monetary metal bid AND industrial demand tailwinds. When silver outperforms gold this aggressively, it's usually telling you something about where the economy is heading. https://t.co/SPn2igYPIv
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
S&P 500 Weekly RSI Hits Overbought
we're starting the week with the S&P 500 $SPX RSI(5) overbought on the weekly chart for the first time in six months... https://t.co/sr1M1wKskc
Educating Seniors to Safeguard Their Money and Taxes
I want to help protect seniors/their money via education and in person workshops. I have personal experience w/my beautiful dad, am a #CPA in TX/FL and have a teachers heart. Manage #financial risk. Add #tax tips. What are others doing?...
How Corporations Pay Zero Taxes—And You Can Too
~88 profitable U.S. corporations paid $0 in federal corporate income tax while you paid payroll tax, income tax, property tax, sales tax, capital gain tax, etc to fund activities you don’t even support. The big guys know how to...
Investing at Market Peaks Beats Timing Any Other Day
Are you ready to have your mind blown? Since 1989, money invested when the market is at all-time highs has actually outperformed money invested on any given day. 🤯🤯🤯 https://t.co/qDhqxMLUZg
Iran Conflict Threatens Airline Jet Fuel Supply
Re-up! #Airlines & the Iran conflict - a perfect storm as carriers face jet fuel squeeze? #avgeek #airlines #StraitofHormuz #Iran #oil https://t.co/VocDTjCLlD https://t.co/wd3hlohdlT
Watching SPY: Will Friday’s Low Hold or Slip?
$spy follow up as we see if Friday’s low holds or do we retrace a bit lower https://t.co/JwJ3owG2KM
Funds Dump Brent as US‑Iran Talks Spur Price Dip Expectations
Brent sees fund sales as diplomacy intensifies Investors realised profits from bullish long positions and started to accumulate bearish short ones last week, anticipating a further fall in Brent prices as the United States and Iran conducted face-to-face talks to find...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
Avis Soars 300% on Float Squeeze and Geopolitics
Anyone following the Avis situation? Pentwater 22% + TRS synthetics + SRS 49% = >100% of float owned. 54% of float short. Stock doubles on that alone: ~$100 to $200. Then Iran hits: > Domestic travel substitution -> more rental days > Crude up...
Lululemon Downgraded Amid High Valuation, Slowing Growth
Lululemon's products are still great, but a new analysis warns the stock's risks are now greater. Citing high valuation, tough competition, and slowing growth, the rating gets a downgrade. investing
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
Holding Stocks Wins, But Discipline Remains Tough
In hindsight, buying and holding stocks was the right choice this past year. That's easier said than done. This is a nice personal essay from financial newsletter ace @SamRo on how hard that is even for someone like him. https://t.co/ondBWl2hlM
Small‑Cap Liquidations Deliver Big, Stable Moves
Excelsior Cap $ECL is a good example of why I like small and micro-cap liquidations stocks. The good ones look like this. Big step-change moves and otherwise stable. https://t.co/CrSEoHnShP
Weekly Family Office Digest: AI, Wealth Trends, Risks
The best family office content from the last week is wrapped up in today's email, including: ∘ What does AI already know about your family office? ∘ The world’s richest real estate baron ∘ The $410M casino billionaire inheritance battle ∘ Managing Tom Cruise,...
Success Comes From Trading When Others Stay Silent
Howard Marks built one of the greatest track records in investing history. Not because he was smarter. Because he was lonelier. When Oaktree bought distressed debt nobody wanted, it wasn't genius, it was distance. From the crowd. From the narrative. From the...
92% of S&P 500 Firms Beat Forecasts, Median +5%
“Of the 49 companies that have reported so far (10% of the S&P 500): Overall, 92% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 5%.” - @fundstrat
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Oil's 10% Crash Signals Deflationary Shock
$CL_F crashed 10% in a single session — April 17. WTI fell to $84, down from a $110 peak. One day. 10%. Oil. That's not noise — that's a deflationary impulse hitting the macro backdrop at full speed. https://t.co/ju4e7ZBacD
Netflix Accelerates Its Evolution Amid Market Shifts
Today's TSOH Investment Research Netflix: The Pace of Change $NFLX Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for his feedback https://t.co/pCr6qiYKfI https://t.co/5kuiihQ5I9
SPX Eyes 7074 Resistance After 13-Day Rally
$SPX moving from 6316 to 7147. Thirteen straight up days can complicate things as some sell longs or start hedging, especially with talks looking a bit less perfect. Now we’ll see if 7074 holds or if we re-test 7002. https://t.co/ggxPg9KKER
Few Bearish Signals, Yet Humility Guides Fractal Trading
In today's Early Look: "#Quad2 Breakout, It Was" With only 5 of the 37 Risk Range™ Signals that I fractally measure, map, and post in our RISK RANGE product every day signaling Bearish TREND @Hedgeye (USD and VIX are 2...
Closed Strait Triggers Global Supply Shortages and Food Price Surge
The economic impact of a closed Strait increases. Time delay. Supply shortages. Prices. Helium? Sulfur? Fertilizer—as planting season begins? Then it will be food scarcity and prices. More.
Weak Corn, Soybean Markets Threaten Crude's $100 Barrier
Crude Breaks Stuff Above $100; $80 Initial Support Crude oil's red 2Q candle to April 17 may have a greater tendency to deepen if corn and soybeans are guides. My graphic highlights a big difference from the last three times WTI...
Soybeans May Touch $12.39, But $9 Likely
$12.39 Soybeans Could Mark 2026 High Soybeans have been between $9.36-$12.39 a bushel since the start of 2024, recently revisiting the upper end due to the Iran war. Sustaining above $12 may require an unlikely combination of WTI crude oil staying...
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
US Stocks Peaked; Oil and Yields Stay Elevated
GS: US equities are through the highs, but oil and yields are still well above pre-war levels https://t.co/aMwCrKHBwC
HSBC Warns: Market Dips Are Quick‑play Opportunities
HSBC's Kettner: "'This doesn't make sense' and 'Risk assets are detached from reality.' This is how a lot of our meetings start right now...But these are exactly the sorts of dips one will have to use very quickly in the...
SPY Hits Record High, Fastest Recovery Since 1982
$SPY just closed at 7,126 — an ALL-TIME HIGH. +13% in 11 sessions from the March 30 low. That's the fastest recovery since 1982. Every bear who called a prolonged collapse is now underwater. https://t.co/8ltnRPpY7t
Watch Key Gaps; Otherwise Trends Persist Longer than Expected
Don’t overthink trends, they tend to keep doing longer than we expect. Just watch for key changes in character such as significant gaps in the other direction, extreme extensions. Or failed moves at key levels. Otherwise, the stock will tend to continue...
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⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Market Update ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nbz8N $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SNDK https://t.co/eDbEhRjgAv
Germans Shift €5.5bn From Stocks to €18bn Funds
Good Morning from Germany, where investors are moving money out of individual stocks and into investment funds. In Q4 2025 alone, Germans pulled €5.5bn from individual stocks, the largest outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, they...
Singapore Jet Fuel Doubles, Squeezing Un‑hedged Airlines
SINGAPORE jet fuel prices have doubled to an average around $166 per barrel so far in April compared with $82 in January. Fuel is one of the three largest costs for passenger airlines (together with crew labour and capital) so...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID-Level Severity
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive." -Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
Silver Hits Critical Juncture—Here’s Why It Matters
Silver Price Has Reached a CRITICAL Time ...here's why https://t.co/wSo2jfQeoX [VIDEO] #silver #silverprice My thanks to Manuel Blay @TheDowTheory for the interview.
Timing Beats Price: Early Entry Drives Real Estate Gains
Why most investors lose money… even in a rising real estate market Everyone thinks: “If prices are going up, I’ll make money.” But this chart shows why that’s wrong. First — how to read this chart: • X-axis = when you enter the market cycle • Y-axis =...
Anthropic's Ownership: Big Tech Holds ~30% Collectively
Anthropic’s approximate major equity ownership: • Amazon: ~8–16% • Google (Alphabet): ~14%l • NVIDIA: ~3% • Microsoft: low single-digit % • Co-founders (Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei & other 5 co-founders): each ~1.8%+ (collective significant founder stake; total founders likely...
Preserve Capital, Trade only High‑probability Opportunities
“You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital...
Oil Spikes While Stocks and Commodities Slide
$SPY -0.5% $QQQ -0.5% $IWM -0.9% $EEM -1.5% $TLT -0.2% $USO +5.4% $IBIT -3.2% $GLD -1.2% $XLE +1.4% https://t.co/mpRZrC3jG7
John Bogle Debunked Index Fund Idea, Then Created It
In 1960, two academics proposed the index fund. The person who argued against them? A young John Bogle, writing under a fake name. He went on to launch the first one. We made a short film about the paper that started it...
ELIX AI Growth, Lower P/E, Higher Dividend—Still Not a Buy
#ELIX good Update; AI seems to be a growth area for them. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 12.9 falling to 10.9 and fwd Divvy 3% rising to 3.5%; pretty reasonable valuation. I don't hold.
Revenue Beats, Backlog Record, P/E Improves, Dividend Rises
#KNOS "Revenue ahead of consensus", "Record backlog levels". ShareScope showing fwd p/e 21.5 falling to 18.1 and fwd Divvy 3.4% rising to 3.7%, BEFORE cash stripped out. Lot to like. I don't hold.
Avid Budget Downgraded to Underweight Amid Overvaluation
Avid Budget Group $CAR downgraded to Underweight @ Barclays 'Rental Car 1Q Set-Up: fundamentals improving, but stock move is all technical; d/g CAR to UW' Nevertheless, while fundamentals have become favorable, we downgrade CAR to UW from EW and raise our PT...
North America Gains Urea Cost Edge Amid Global Gas Divergence
This chart underpins my positioning in North American nitrogen fertiliser producers. Urea supply has tightened following a sharp drop in exports from the Gulf. As urea production is highly sensitive to NatGas costs, the divergence in regional gas prices is...
US Tech's Edge Fades; Global Markets Take Lead
To outperform MSCI World Index was easy in the past due to the following: US mkt was outperforming rest of world US tech was outperforming US market Mag7 plus a few more similar stocks were outperforming US tech So you bought 5-7 US tech...