S&P Rebounds, Adds $500B Market Cap Despite Dip
MARKET RECAP 📈 What a wild and crazy day, the S&P 500 started down 0.8%, but closed up 0.2%. The index gained over $500 BILLION in market cap from the intraday low 🙌 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Amazon Ends Nine‑day Slide, Halts $450bn Loss
#Amazon snaps 9d losing streak during which it lost more than $450bn in value. https://t.co/0lGS8k6lrO https://t.co/TjEQVxihvT
Rising Demand Meets Intermittent Solar, Threatening Power Reliability
US electricity demand is rising quickly—and it can only be met with 24/7 reliable power. And yet most of the added electricity "capacity" in 2025 came from intermittent solar. If this continues, electricity prices will continue to rise due to reliable power...
Berkshire Hathaway Trims Apple Stake by 10 Million Shares
Berkshire Hathaway reduces its $AAPL holdings from 238.21 million to 227.92 million shares. No biggie. @ScottWapnerCNBC @dougkass
Starlink‑enabled Drones Become Ukraine War’s Deadliest Weapon
Drones now account for the majority of casualties in the Ukraine War. With Russia improving its strike range by mounting Starlink terminals to drones, Elon Musk has finally stepped in. Full analysis available on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/LYlet7MIHM #dronewarfare #starlink #ukrainewar #geopolitics
Dar
This is consistent with all the chatter about the RVOs lately. Darling Ingredients CEO last week gave a range for BBD RVO of 5.25 - 5.6 billion physical gallons. Appears that half-RIN is dead and the compromise...
Holding Consensus Picks Like APP, HOOD, PLTR Costs Money
If you're still bag-holding consensus CNBC names like $APP $HOOD $PLTR, that will bother your pocketbook
AMC Refires $2.5B to Trim Maturity Wall
AMC moving to clean up its maturity wall. $2.5B package taking out 2027 notes (12.75%) and 2029 TL If it prices well, decently lower interest burden. $AMC
Flatlined Power Output Signals Efficiency, Not Decline
Demand is what dominates these electricity charts. Supply has followed demand in the US. Stop posting flatlined generation graphs as if they're evidence of US decline or stagnation. They're evidence of US efficiency and a switch to a knowledge economy.
Ford Pays Millions in Tariffs After Supplier Fire
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
Speculating Sam's Potential Interest in $HAL Like RPK
Will be interesting to see if Sam @SamofAmerica is interested in $HAL like RPK @RPKent is
Central Banks Amass Record Gold, China Adds 357 Tonnes
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
India's Solar Overproduction Turns Boom Into Glut
Industrial policy, again: "India’s Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom Into a Glut" https://t.co/VEeIUwYmoM https://t.co/r4CohxBgDI
Trump Must Accept Limited Iran Deal to Avert Strikes
two rounds of iran talks, very little progress so far. unless trump is prepared to accept a limited deal (focused on nuclear capacity, not missiles or support for regional proxies), military strikes in coming weeks looking likely.
Stock Crashes Stem From Multiple Compression, Not Revenue Loss
Fab article about which vertical software will be hurt and which could be made stronger... "But here's the thing the market already understands: you don't need revenue to decline for the stock to crash. You need the multiple to compress. A...
AI Firms, Data Centers to Issue $220B Debt, Outpace Banks
AI cos and data centers are expected to issue $220 billion of debt this year, making up 15% of JPM's high-grade bond index (and making them bigger issuers than banks) https://t.co/LPkxfJGhNK
Figma Plummets 83%; Earnings May Be Lifeline
Figma ($FIG) - down 83% from its IPO highs. Can earnings save them this week?
Mason Morfit Calls Market Wrong on Salesforce Valuation
Must listen. Rare interview with activist investor Mason Morfit with @WilfredFrost my favorite part when they discuss why he says the market is wrong on Salesforce @Benioff
Partnering with Disruptor Boosts FIG 4% Above Sector
In a market punishing software...partnering with the disruptor is getting rewarded $FIG up 4% on the news, outperforming the sector
Iranian Rial Crashes as US‑Iran Nuclear Talks Begin
Today, US-Iran nuclear talks began in Geneva. As the talks start, the Iranian rial is in the tank. It has depreciated by over 43% against the dollar in the past year, making it THE SECOND WORST CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. https://t.co/PORIO6lGtc
Adobe at 15× Earnings—Five‑year Low, Consider Buying
$ADBE trading at just 15x its earnings as the stock reaches five year lows. Are you buying? Earnings scheduled on March 12th.
Sold Heavily in 2019, Missed Nvidia's 50x Surge
Well they also sold a ton back in 2019, right before NVDA went up 50x
Systematic Rental Strategies Build Generational Wealth
🏡 The Steps You Need For Financial Freedom 🥳 Collecting cash flow and becoming financially free are within reach for everyone, if you’re willing to sacrifice and follow a calculated path. Every decision is thought out and systematical, but when...
Fed Says AI Boom Won’t Prompt Rate Cuts
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
Sanctions Spawn Shadow Fleet, Aging Tankers Scrapped in India
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 59M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
Balance Reversion and Momentum: Mix Market-Making with Market-Taking
"You have market-making strategies or market-taking strategies. You want to balance across them because market-making strategies tend to be reversion and market-taking strategies tend to be momentum." - Bobby Jain (EP.497) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Google Updates Top Holdings with New Stocks
Googles Top holdings was just updated $ASTS $PL $RVMD $ARM $FRSH Other notable names : $PATH $OSCR $GTLB $TEM
US Jan Soy Crush Beats Forecast, Stocks Surge 49%
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Jan. 2026: ▪️221.564 mln bu of soybeans ▪️Above avg trade guess of 218.52 mln ▪️+10.6% YOY; down 1.5% from Dec. 2025 ▪️Soyoil stocks 1.9 bln lbs ▪️Above all trade guesses (avg was 1.71 bln) ▪️+49% YOY; highest since April 2023 https://t.co/UItFPJlkd8
Guyana and Exxon Profit From Venezuela's Turmoil
Been saying this for a while: Guyana (and by extension Exxon) was a big collateral winner of Venezuela developments. https://t.co/QzfRIJKK1F
Save Before You Spend, Not After.
If your paycheck hits and you’re deciding what to save after you spend… you’re doing it backwards.
Big Tech Cuts Buybacks, Shifts to AI Spending
‼️The largest US stock buyer since 2009 is STEPPING BACK: Combined buybacks by Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle fell to $12.6 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest in 7 YEARS. This marks the 3rd quarterly decline, a -70% DROP from the...
Business Inflation Expectations Return to Pre‑Pandemic Levels
Two different measures of business inflation expectations have essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Atlanta Fed survey (dark line), which asks businesses how much they expect their own unit costs to change, is back at 2%—right where it was in 2019....
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Chinese State Banks Boost FX Securities by $90B Monthly
Notable acceleration in the fx securities book of the Chinese state banks (And their reverse repo/ other funding of global financial institutions) in January -- consistent with the $90b monthly increase in the reported fx balance sheet https://t.co/PNDncW2w2s
U.S. Corn Inspections Surpass Expectations, Soy Exports to China Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Corn Leads Weekly Export Inspections, Soybeans Follow
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 12 (mln bu): #corn 58.8, grain sorghum 9.5, #soybeans 44.2, #wheat 13.8 #oatt
Dollar Up Shows Unchanged Signal Amid Correlation Risk
If there was something else to "dig into", I would have. Dollar Up has its implied Correlation Risk today. I'll do what the signal does. It didn't change.
IEA Paris Meeting Tests Net‑Zero Shift Against US Oil Priorities
For energy policy making, a key week in Paris as @IEA energy officials gather Feb 18-19 for a biennial ministerial meeting. The IEA’s drift toward net-zero advocacy and overtures to China will be tested as US officials push to a return...
Swiss Market Hits Record High as US Stocks Slide
Switzerland is hitting a new all-time high again today as U.S. stocks break down to new 6-month lows relative to European stocks. https://t.co/z6UH4K1Vfo
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...
Retail Favorites, IPO Timing, and Base Rates Explained
🔬 Research links: the stocks retail investors favor, the impact of IPO timing, and why base rates matter so much. https://t.co/cjmTGAY0wz chart: https://t.co/rvyduDs39u https://t.co/EKv26rorKm
SPY Poised to Break November Range Amid Key Data
Is it finally the week $SPY breaks this range? Stuck here since November. Reports scheduled this week: - U.S. Trade Deficit Report (Thu) - GDP (Fri) - Inflation Report (Fri) - Consumer Sentiment (Fri)
Chinese AI Firms Double, Hitting $35B—West Should Follow
china’s two ai model company minimax and zai have grown 2x in public markets in the last month they’re now $30-35b companies surely that should prompt western labs to go public already
EURUSD Retreats to Fib Level as Longs Surge
$EURUSD has pulled back from its failed run on 1.20 a few weeks back - aligned to a 38.2% Fib of the 2008 to 2022 bear wave. Meanwhile, net speculative futures positioning has jumped this past week to its heaviest net-long...
Airbnb Hits 9M Listings, Bookings up 10% YoY
Airbnb Q4 FY25 letter: "We ended 2025 with over nine million active listings around the world. During Q4 FY25, active listings grew relatively in-line with the YoY increase of Nights and Seats Booked [+10% YoY.]"
New Capital Rules Unlock $250B+ for Big Banks
New bank capital rules coming which will free up more excess capital at the same time when capital mkts & loan demand are improving. Large cap banks have $175B in excess capital which will go to $250B+ post GSIB...
Fed Rarely Cuts Rates During >8% Nominal Growth
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
Trump's Shadow Stalls Power Investment, Creating AI Bottleneck
As the dark shadow of Trump fell over the US power sector & the highly effective IRA, investment in power generation plateaued in 2024. Well-time to create a power bottleneck for AI. More on this in the Chartbook Top Link...
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...