In‑person CRE Networking Turns Conversations Into Funded Deals
Back in Fort Lauderdale having the kind of conversations you can’t get on Zoom. The kind where someone says, “We’re looking in DC,” and suddenly your flight paid for itself. Retail expanding. Capital still active. Operators making moves. Commercial real estate is still about relationships. #commercialrealestate #CRE #FortLauderdale
Market Awaiting Decisive Breakout: Support or Resistance?
📺 THIS MARKET NEEDS RESOLUTION The market is stuck in a range. Breakouts fail, breakdowns bounce, and both longs and shorts get frustrated. We need a decisive move that breaks the range and sticks. That could mean: 🔻 A clean break below support $QQQ...
Rate Moves Aren’t Driven by Current Data, ADP Shows
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...
North Korean Won Plummets, Ranks Third Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the North Korean won ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST currency. The won has depreciated by 41% against the USD over the past year. PLIGHT OF THE WON = ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST UNREPORTED STORIES. https://t.co/7leiebPd5D
VIX Lags Behind Single‑Stock PC Ratio Indicator
In the spirit of committing chart crimes, here is the single stock PC ratio vs the VIX (green). VIX, a proxy for SPX IV, is clearly lagging. Likely unrelated is that VIX exp is tomorrow... https://t.co/ygiUeMv38z
SPX Below 50‑Day MA, Support at 6780‑6790
$SPX is now below the 8/21/50day. The longer we sit under 6880ish the higher the odds we see lower prices. A reclaim back above there keeps this range action intact, while 6780–6790 remains the key major support zone. https://t.co/Zmq5a33GXE
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
New DSR Highlights Debt‑Equity Promise for Hyperscalers
New DSR released to clients. Part 3 in the Hamburger Series - Hyperscalers. As a reminder the idea is that to get a hamburger today one needs to promise to repay (issue debt and equity) on tuesday. ...
UK Unemployment Surge Drives Sterling Lower Amid Pay Stagnation
UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the…...
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
Time, Not Price, Is Gurgaon’s Biggest Investment Risk
The Silent Risk No Gurgaon Investor Is Pricing In (And It’s Not a Crash) Most investors think risk = price falling. Wrong. The biggest hidden risk in NCR today is: Time miscalculation. Not where you buy. But when your capital gets stuck. Real Estate Is a Time-Compression...
Global Fiat Fears Boost Gold and USD Stablecoins
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
EU Resistance Threatens Effectiveness of New Russia Sanctions
EU countries’ resistance risks blunting latest Russia sanctions package https://t.co/ck1N8lGobr via @AlbertoNardelli @AfPalasciano @donatopmancini https://t.co/6LWNSkOoNN
Walmart's EBITDA Multiple Jumps From 6x to 23x
What a re-rating for Walmart stock. From 6x EBITDA in 2011 to 23x today. Sometimes buying good businesses cheaply just works. https://t.co/ORuNNv1HBY
Institutional Sentiment Swings Rapidly Amid AI Disruption Fears
This week’s episode explores a dramatic shift in sentiment that unfolded in just a few days. Emily and Michael are joined by Jay Glickson (Macro Sales) to discuss what institutional investors are saying, how AI disruption fears are shaping their...
Equal‑Weight S&P Outperforms Only Amid Major Market Shifts
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically: 1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an...
Nvidia
"AI Revolution" - Nvidia unchanged since July, off 3% in 2026. Street Research $NVDA at $181 Buys 92.8% ...
Weak UK Data, German Outlook Boost USD, Lift JPY
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
Meta's Compute Spend Aims Solely at Internal Profit
$META is an interesting case. Make a massive compute investment entirely for internal needs. Unlike virtually any of the big data center spend which in other cases is partly internal and partly to rent to others, META ROI seems...
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Foreign Investment Steady, US Stocks Slightly Lagging
Balanced take from Bob. While the headline may be different than my "get out" thesis. The meat says the same. Flows suggest marginally weaker dollar and relative underperformance of U.S. stocks vs ROW. Don't panic out...
CIOs Push CEOs to Cut Capex, Strengthen Balance Sheets
"capex too hot right now …CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20% from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps 'overinvesting' at new record high" - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/ciu0wy6GZP
Developing Nations Leapfrog Fossil Era, Embrace Clean Power
I *love* this ternary chart showing developing economies increasingly go directly for clean electrons (solar plus some wind), bypassing the fossil economy that the US and EU went through. I expect Africa will take an even more direct route than India. https://t.co/KjsZV3S6P1...
73% of Stocks Rose, AMAT Leads Gains
Got Good Stock Picking or Bag-holding #Bag7 names? 73% of stocks were up an avg +2.0% on Friday with our $AMAT Long leading the way @HedgeyeTech https://t.co/1HxQYIbhYb
Quad3 Dynamics Active on Dollar up, Gold Down
Correlation Math #Quad3 Dynamics very much in play on a Dollar Up (Gold Down) morning https://t.co/QACdjs8zu2
IT Overvaluation, Not Crash, Drives Sector Underperformance
Just because IT stocks are crashing does not mean the Indian IT sector is coming to a close - but you were overpaying for growth considering IT as a defensive sector, and that has to change. The sector has underperformed...
ITRK Acquires Drone Solar Inspector, Yields Improve
#ITRK bought Aerial PV Inspection GmbH which uses Drones to inspect Solar Panels. No financial details given. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 17.7 falling to 16.2 and fwd Divvy 3.6% rising to 4%; classy business and decent yield now. I don't...
Investors Urge CEOs to Curb Spending Amid Bullish Optimism
Wall Street is full of worried bulls. On one hand, investors are telling CEOs they're overinvesting. On the other, investors are feeling the best about the overall backdrop since June 2021, with "no landing" expectations at a record high: February...
KLSO Bets
#KLSO bought 130,000 shares in #CVSG at 1,387p average. ShareScope has CVSG on fwd p/e 15.7 falling to 14.5 and fwd Divvy 0.7% each of next 2 years. CMA investigation still dragging on. I hold #PETS
Executive Chairman Buys 530k CORD Shares, Uptrend Confirmed
Executive Chairman (Investment Manager) at #CORD bought 530,000 shares at 103.12p each. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 3.9% and chart is in a nice Uptrend. I don't hold.
Urgent Shift to Solar and Wind Over Gas
Forget climate change for the moment. One of the main reasons for supporting green energy is to reduce our reliance on gas for electricity generation. The Ukraine war has compromised access to Russian gas and this has had a massive...
DEBS Targets £35m Raise, Cuts Costs, Prioritises Cash Flow
#DEBS to do a fundraise of around £35m at 20p a share. Reiterates it's previous financial guidance and expects a lot of cost to come out of the business. New focus on Cash Flow.
SOM Announces FY Results March 10, Investor Meet March 17
#SOM releasing FY Results on 10th March with Investor Meet presentation on the 17th March:
GSK
#GSK Exdensur (depemokimab) approved in EU for treating "severe asthma with type 2 inflammation and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps". Follows from the SWIFT and ANCHOR phase III trials.
CSN Expands Into Luxembourg with €110m Acquisition, 7.5% Yield
#CSN buying Scottish Widows Europe SA in Luxembourg for total cash €110m. Adds 46,000 in-force policies and €1.7bn Assets Under Administration. Enables CSN to enter Luxembourg market. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.2% rising to 7.5%; still tasty.
APN Beats Consensus, Forward P/E Drops, Shares Up 6%
#APN "ahead of updated market consensus expectations". ShareScope showing fwd p/e 22.3 falling to 20.2 but that's before news today and 6% rise and there's Cash to strip out. More to come hopefully. :-)
Neoliberalism Crafts Rules to Shield Global Capitalism From Democracy
I just finished Quinn Slobodian's fascinating book on the parallel evolution of globalization and neoliberalism, with the former (according to the latter) requiring specific rules and institutions to "protect" global capitalism from democratic political pressures. While he focuses very heavily...
China’s $20T Paradox Defies Any Five‑year Plan
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A
Nifty IT RSI Climbs From 20 to 30, Trend Uncertain
Nifty IT index is back from an oversold 20 on the RSI indicator to 30 - not so oversold anymore. Now the real question about the trend emerges.
Freee Posts 30% YoY Revenue Surge, Market Optimism
I honestly feel like freee's result was pretty damn good: +30% YoY top-line growth. With other narratives floating around, the market could easily have interpreted the result in a favorable light.
China Shifts Reserves to State Banks, Boosts Returns
Beijing really just outsourced its reserves to its state banks, and shifted out of US custodians High return on investment tho. Tons of folks swallow the fall in reported Treasury holdings hook, line and sinker https://t.co/MKw3EJlSuR
2025 Year-End Bonuses Shrink, Uneven Amid Economic Slowdown
1/2 SCMP: "Long viewed by Chinese employees as a barometer of corporate prospects, industry momentum and even the broader economy, the year-end bonus packages for 2025 have become smaller, rarer and far more unevenly distributed, amid slowing... https://t.co/MFbnMtmZdY
China's Hidden Bank Interventions Hit $800B Annual Record
The annualized measures of Chinese intervention over the last 3ms that capture backdoor intervention by the state banks are at all time highs in dollar terms -- over $200b a quarter/ over $800b annualized https://t.co/7vlh3tf4CX
Falling Rates Could Quickly Revive Builder Margins
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
Thailand Market Hit Bottom Mid‑2025, Faber Predicted
While everyone continues to be bearish on Thailand, the index quietly bottomed in mid-2025. Marc Faber called it, almost perfectly. https://t.co/TfCZRnhSG7
Markets Overvalued: Between Very and Pornographically High
Market Update: We continue to view the market as being somewhere between very overvalued and pornographically overvalued. We have an out of consensus outlook. @dougkass @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @jimcramer @pboockvar @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @business...
Iran Risk Unpriced: Trump Faces Bluff, Consequence Choice
Iran Risk Is Not Priced In Iran escalation does not look easily winnable for Trump. It looks like a bluff inside a trap, which sets up as a dangerous game of “concession or consequence”. https://t.co/XXKbHZrXhQ
Asian Markets Split: AI Surge vs Old‑Economy Shift Ahead
Asian equity markets are diverging into two camps: AI capex beneficiaries in East Asia and "old economy" companies in Southeast Asia. There will be an inflection point where the former peaks, and flows move towards the latter. But when?
Software Stocks Echo Dot‑com Highs, Risk Imminent Crash
The carnage brings us back to the Dot-Com highs on Software Relative to the S&P 500. Ugly ugly ugly. I don't know if it happens this week, but I think this chart will break down. Time will tell. https://t.co/d0hCRxotxq