Falling Rates Could Quickly Revive Builder Margins
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
Thailand Market Hit Bottom Mid‑2025, Faber Predicted
While everyone continues to be bearish on Thailand, the index quietly bottomed in mid-2025. Marc Faber called it, almost perfectly. https://t.co/TfCZRnhSG7
Markets Overvalued: Between Very and Pornographically High
Market Update: We continue to view the market as being somewhere between very overvalued and pornographically overvalued. We have an out of consensus outlook. @dougkass @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @jimcramer @pboockvar @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @business...
Iran Risk Unpriced: Trump Faces Bluff, Consequence Choice
Iran Risk Is Not Priced In Iran escalation does not look easily winnable for Trump. It looks like a bluff inside a trap, which sets up as a dangerous game of “concession or consequence”. https://t.co/XXKbHZrXhQ
Asian Markets Split: AI Surge vs Old‑Economy Shift Ahead
Asian equity markets are diverging into two camps: AI capex beneficiaries in East Asia and "old economy" companies in Southeast Asia. There will be an inflection point where the former peaks, and flows move towards the latter. But when?
Software Stocks Echo Dot‑com Highs, Risk Imminent Crash
The carnage brings us back to the Dot-Com highs on Software Relative to the S&P 500. Ugly ugly ugly. I don't know if it happens this week, but I think this chart will break down. Time will tell. https://t.co/d0hCRxotxq
Iranian Rial Plummets, Becomes World's Second Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 2ND WORST currency. The rial has depreciated by 44% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = THE GREAT DESTABILIZER. https://t.co/06OiclsaSq
Strip Mall Bought for $900K Generates $700K Equity
Do you want to see how a $900K strip mall turned into ~$700K equity? Just dropped the full breakdown. Comment $ for the link.
2026 Macro Outlook: Resilient Momentum Amid Inflation Leaks
New episode 🎙️ Rob Haworth (U.S. Bank Asset Management) joins me to break down 2026 macro: resilient momentum, inflation + earnings “leaking” through the system, tariffs, geopolitics, Fed uncertainty, and what to watch if rates spike. https://t.co/OPTdLbcGgJ
Stock Futures Swing Wildly This Evening
This evening stock futures are having more moves than a shortstop batting .110. @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @Convertbond @pboockvar
Japan’s Nuclear Restarts Cut Costs, Boost Yen, Tame Inflation
Japan’s nuclear reactors continue to come back online. This is a major positive for consumers, businesses, and the environment, as it increases the supply of cheap energy, and reduces reliance on expensive imported fossil fuels. This dynamic should also support the...
AI Accelerates Market Signal Turnover and Degradation
One thing I feel strongly about regarding AI is that, when it comes to trading, we are going to witness a streamlined cycle of signal degradation. Classical signals will become crowded very quickly. The market will rotate through those cycles faster...
Dalio's Stage 6: 5 Stocks for the New World Order
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
Charlotte Women in Real Estate: Connect and Grow Community
Calling all Charlotte women in real estate 🥂 Agents, lenders, investors, wholesalers and developers, introduce yourself below and tell us what you do👇 Let’s build real community in Charlotte.
Low‑end Apple Releases Spark Brief Sales Bump
Agree with Mark. March 4 will likely be highlighted by a low-end MacBook and maybe a new lower-priced iPhone 17e (the 16e came out a year ago). Siri won't be addressed. My take: The low-end products have historically led to a...
Solar Overtakes Nuclear; Nuclear Drops to Third by 2026
I've been cranking numbers. Full year 2025, it looks like nuclear power just about kept its nose ahead of wind and solar. But in H2 2025, while wind didn't quite overtake nuclear, solar did. In 2026 nuclear will drop to...
Charlotte Women in Real Estate Mixer Launches June 13
If you’re a woman in real estate in Charlotte this is your room. 🥂 Join us June 13 (6–9 PM) for the Charlotte Women in Real Estate Mixer — the official launch of Pretty Women in Real Estate. Networking, speakers, resources, and...
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Private Credit Bets on Software Amid AI Uncertainty
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
US Tech Dominance Fades as Global Rotation Shifts
This chart captures the 2 most important themes in the Stockmarket right now. 1. Global vs US rotation 2. Top in tech stocks For the past 17-years US Tech stocks have dominated global markets, but that is starting to change... https://t.co/6DhUXusR6C
Investors Shift From S&P 500 to Alternatives, Gains Accelerate
Rotation away from S&P500 (flat on the year) into other assets like foreign stocks, US value, etc up 10-15% seems to be accelerating...
Venezuelan Bolivar Plummets 87%, Becomes World’s Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 87% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE BOLIVAR AND REPLACE IT WITH THE US DOLLAR. https://t.co/dHtPzNew81
Weekly S&P 500 Chart Review Highlights Key Trends
ICYMI: Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm blog post https://t.co/B5a4uBC2Q4 Thanks + follow reco to chart sources @MarketCharts @topdowncharts @dailychartbook @MauiBoyMacro @KobeissiLetter @StealthQE4 @HayekAndKeynes
Sector Rotation Ends; Brace for Upcoming Volatility
Given I timed the sector rotation with precision in Nov & said it would likely run until Feb, and we are here, I'm gonna share what else I also told clients: IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION, THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY™️😉
Trump's Presidency Keeps Oil Prices Higher, OPEC+ Cuts Production
The best—only?—argument that Trump is bearish for oil prices is that OPEC+ wouldn't have hiked crude production as aggressively last year in a world in which Harris was sitting in the White House.
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Alphabet and Meta CDS Explode From Zero to Top Traders
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
Eurogroup Sets 2026 Priorities, Boosts Euro’s Global Role
Back in Brussels today for the #Eurogroup meeting, where we discussed: 🔹 euro area policy priorities for 2026 🔹 the international role of the euro https://t.co/FAa7OvZiMt
AI Disruption Drives Widening Credit Spreads Ahead of Earnings
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
Why Next Year Calls for Both Bullish and Bearish Views
Great conversation. We cover why to be bullish ... and bearish ... about the next 12 months.
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
VWAP Wave System: Structured Consistency, Amazon’s #3 Futures Bestseller
The VWAP Wave System just hit #3 Best Seller in Futures Trading on Amazon 📚🔥 No hype. No guessing. Just structure. This is what real consistency looks like. If you can’t name the setup… it’s not a trade. 🌊 Ride the Wave. #vwap #futurestrading #daytrading #tradingstrategy
Warsh May Threaten Fed Stability Despite Doubtful Capability
Good piece. Warsh would be a fundamental break from the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds if he carried out his views. Do I think he’s capable of pulling that off? Not really. Do I think he might try to and...
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
Offset‑Dependent Clean‑Cooking Firm Fails, Warns Developing Nations
Clean cooking is a key climate solution. A company that raised $300 million and was reliant on carbon offset sales for its business model to work has gone bust. Lots of lessons for developing countries and offset sellers. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-16/clean-cooking-company-s-collapse-touches-world-bank-and-beyond
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
Tax Savings Stem From Management, Not Just More Properties
Real estate tax strategies don’t just come from buying more properties. They come from how those properties are managed and who is actively involved. When you understand how participation and planning affect taxes, it changes how you look at income, investing,...
DII Buying Offsets FII Selling, Keeping Nifty Afloat
FII's sold -972 Cr. DII's Bought Heavily +1666 Cr. It's been more than a year and nifty is trying to survive with the help of DII's only But without FII's, our portfolio will remain down and -ve 🔻 @champ_trader
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
Metal Volatility Reveals Hidden Market Shifts
Metal Volatility Changed Everything $GLD $SLV $BTCUSD $SPX $QQQ $IGV $XLK Sharp volatility in gold, silver, crypto and equities was easier to spot than most think. And why I study sector rotation, options structure, and investor confidence. https://t.co/PYmLxcJSCJ
Bond Futures Surge as Curve Flattens, Front
Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
Small‑cap S&P Weights Outshine Mag 7, Walmart Spikes
A few interesting mkt observations YTD: the sector outperformers are led by the smallest weightings in $SPX while the Mag 7 is -7%, $WMT is +12% vs software -22% and $AMZN down 9 days in a row - 1st time...
Reeves Gains Momentum as UK Debt Interest Falls
UK’s Reeves is set to get a boost from falling debt interest https://t.co/iirQy0fcBA via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/R8A0t6Sj29
IEA and OPEC Clash on Oil Outlook, Shaping 2024 Strategy
Why @IEA and @OPECSecretariat are split on what comes next for oil - and what it means for strategy this year https://t.co/FUAD5TlcG4 @TheNationalNews
Trading Week Signals Fed Cut Outlook for 2026
New trading week = big clues for rates 👀 Futures up, gold down, dollar strong… what is the market betting on for Fed cuts in 2026? Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, global data & a surprise risk event ahead Watch the video before you...
Nifty Bounces From 25,450 Support, Eyes 25,700 Resistance
Nifty Prediction For Tomorrow 17 February 2026 By Rohit Srivastava | Indiacharts The nifty could not go below this support range, which was 25,450, and we managed to bounce back from there, hitting the gap zone, the island that we...
Investors Bet on Oil Amid Growing Supply Threats
Oil investors bullish on proliferating supply threats Investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for oil prices as potential risks to production and tanker traffic multiply - including threats of U.S. military action against Iran and stricter sanctions enforcement. Hedge funds and...
Asian Markets Rally Eight Weeks, Hit Record Highs
Asia is up 8 weeks in a row and just closed the week at the highest levels ever, again. https://t.co/hobmUg9TXF
Euro's Neglect Highlights Geopolitical Weakness
We live in a beggar-thy-neighbor world. Everyone is trying to get their currencies down except for the Euro zone, another symptom of geopolitical weakness. While everyone else is managing their currencies down, the Euro is suffering from benign neglect... https://t.co/QpUo91Xcq2 https://t.co/7qByDtUMFN
AI Boom Sparks DRAM Crunch Across All Companies
NEW ODD LOTS - THE DRAM EPISODE The AI boom has created voracious demand for memory, meaning even consumer-facing companies are now having to compete for the chips @TheStalwart & I speak with @rwang07, analyst at SemiAnalysis, about the big DRAM crunch https://t.co/HYFcg7nK8Z