Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics & tariffs. So we'll see.
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
After 9-Month Rally, February Pause Is Healthy
The Dow is up 9 months in a row and we are in the banana peel month of February. Yes, they might blame it on AI or something else, just know a little pause here and now is perfectly normal and...
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
Short‑term Bond Shorts Suffer as 5‑Year Yields Surge
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
PMI's Q4 Results Reshape Valuation and Investment Outlook
In subscribers' inboxes this morning Philip Morris International: The Next Phase $PM - Q4 earnings - Combustibles formula - HTU durability - Pouch uncertainty - Valuation + capital returns - My investment decision (newsletter link in bio) https://t.co/gcDQdJkcds
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
AAP Soars Post‑Earnings as Call Buyer Adjusts
$AAP ripping on earnings as call buyer been adjusting and right for weeks here https://t.co/NDM9mXOd3k
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
The 5ers Introduces Overnight Futures Prop Trading
🚨 @the5erstrading releases details for @The5ersFutures On my panel at @iFXEXPO they said big things were coming… Only futures prop to allow overnight holds Looks like the evolution is here. What do you think - strong proposition or not competitive enough?👇
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
McGough Urges Immediate Buy of GameStop Stock
McGough LIVE on The Call right now saying BUY Gamestop $GME on the open @HedgeyeRetail
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
AI‑linked Firms See Growth, yet Stocks Tumble
The market is now punishing even those companies which are beneficiaries of AI. These businesses are accelerating their revenue growth and their management is explicitly stating that AI is a tailwind, yet their stocks are being crushed. Unreal.
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Friday the 13th Rally Masks Monday’s 18% Drop
Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF
Cargill Shuts Milwaukee Plant, 221 Jobs Lost Amid Herd Slump
"Cargill to Close Milwaukee Beef Facility, Cutting 221 Jobs on Herd Decline" https://t.co/R3enSgd7lj "An industry turnaround isn’t expected soon, as there are few signs of a much-anticipated rebuilding of US herds." 😬
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Investors Unwittingly Swap Value Stocks for Overpriced Picks
The funny thing is that in this value rotation, many investors are unknowingly shifting from value stocks to expensive ones. https://t.co/wliuup8rSq
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
Rising SPX Put Skew May Push VIX to 30
SPX put skew is really starting to warm up here, while ATM IV remains relatively subdued. If SPX 30) https://t.co/p9qsHp8nHk
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
US Gasoline Inventories Hit Near-Record, Squeezing Margins
U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS are well above normal for the time of year, weighing on refining margins. Inventories totalled 259 million barrels on February 6, the second highest on record for the time of year, exceeded only before the pandemic in...
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
Gemini Miscalculates Google’s Massive Depreciation Drag
Coming up on @thestreetpro More Tales From Nvidia: The Depreciation "Tail and Spike" Will Be Painful to Mag7 Profits (Issue #178!) * As free cash flow is plummeting... I decided to ask the AI about itself. In this case, I asked Google Gemini about...
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Oil Returns Green, Signaling Bullish Energy Buying Opportunity
OIL: ticks back into the green and remains Bullish TREND @Hedgeye Yesterday was the 1st day where we could start buying some Energy Exposure on red https://t.co/eURgEMfFpO
Libya's Economy Lags Egypt After 2011 US Intervention
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
Two of Quad3’s Three Worst US Equity Sectors
SECTORS: as we reminded you, these are 2 of the 3 WORST US Equity Sector Styles in #Quad3 https://t.co/yr2fNhpUZH
Trump Narrows Confusing Steel, Aluminum Tariffs Ahead of US‑EU Deal
The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the EU wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the US https://t.co/638iBN7IU0 via @jendeben...
ECB Still Assessing Full Effects of Euro Appreciation
ECB has yet to see full impact of euro appreciation, Kazaks says https://t.co/qqisWsfsJD via @aaroneglitis @Skolimowski https://t.co/TTDxRGmgMY
CBRT Hikes 2026 Inflation Outlook, Policy Stays Too Loose
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6
Turkey's 30% Inflation Threatens Global TV Drama Boom
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
State Firms Snap up Foreclosed Homes, Easing Oversupply
1/2 Reuters: "Chinese state-owned companies are buying foreclosed property projects, in a sign that long-promised government efforts to reduce massive oversupply in the crisis-hit housing sector are finally getting traction, albeit at a slow pace." https://t.co/Nk0gtgJVgr